Relevance: GS-2: Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests; Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests

Key Phrases: Gulf Cooperation Council, Abraham Accord, West Asia Quad, I2U2, US President visit to West Asia

Context:

• Recently the US President has made a visit to West Asia. The President has met his counterparts from Gulf Cooperation Countries such as Iraq, UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Bahrain and Jordan but his visits to Israel and Saudi Arabia remain the most important part of it.

Background

• India, the United States and several other countries are concerned about the recent developments happening in the West Asian region.
• Israel-Palestine conflicts and its recent escalations in 2021, US withdrawal from Afghanistan and establishment of Taliban government there as a result of it, conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen etc., are some of the burning issues in the region. Recent visits of the US President, therefore has become the center of discussion globally including India.

Compulsions driving visit

• It is believed that there are various compulsions before US to plan the recent visit of their President to West Asia. Some of the important reasons for the visit are as follows –
  • The US faces the same challenges that it was facing earlier in navigating its West Asia policy, especially the Israel­Palestine conflict and its strenuous relations with Iran.
  • Trip to Saudi Arabia signaled a re-prioritisation of US interests, compelled by the Russia­Ukraine war and its ramifications on the global food and energy situation.

Reversal of Stand

• Post the killing of Journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018, the US intelligence report concluded that the Saudi leadership was directly involved in his assassination. The US has promised in 2019 to keep away from the kingdom. Thus, the recent visit is a walk back from its earlier stand.

Focus of the visit

• Bilateral cooperation in 5G technology
• Cooperation in integrated air defense
• US welcoming Saudi Arabia’s plan to strategically invest in projects aligning with U.S. Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) goals.
• Other issues in the bilateral relationship such as the release of political prisoners, clemency for opponents of the regime, and easing of travel restrictions, especially for those who hold dual citizenship

Positive externalities of the visit

• Consensus to sustain a UN mediated truce in Yemen:
  • It is to translate the truce into a durable ceasefire and political process between Yemen and Saudi Arabia.
  • It would create conducive grounds for development and aid in war ravaged Yemen.
• Opening of Saudi airspace for civilian aircraft:
  • By opening airspace for aircrafts flying to and from Israel will embolden the spirit and objectives of regional bonhomie, which the U.S. sought through the Abraham Accords

The energy situation in the region

• At the heart of the visit lay the global energy situation exacerbated by the conflict in Ukraine. The gas prices in the US may surge as much as three times the current value before November. The energy situation remains the cause of concern due to following reasons –
  • A stricter Western sanction on Russia might attract its reaction in the form of halting oil supplies to Europe.
  • The US needs to ensure predictability in energy supplies, stabilise energy prices, curb inflation, and assure European allies of energy supplies before winter.
  • Russia’s cut in oil and gas supplies to European countries may cause trouble for countries such as Germany and Austria in upcoming harsh winter
• US, therefore, need to extend its support in Western effort to establish alternate energy supply routes to ensure energy security for Europe even amid limited Russian supplies

Reorienting U.S.’s West Asia policy

• Post the change in regime in USA post 2020 Presidential election, there seems to be a reorientation in the West Asia policy of the country. However, the relationship of the US with Israel remains intact despite the leadership changes.

Relevance for India

• India imports 53 percent of its oil and 41 percent of its gas from West Asia and over 8.5 million Indians work in the region.
• In 2018, India's total remittances was around 78.6 billion dollars. Out of this, 48.6 billion dollars had come from the 6 Gulf Cooperation Council countries (GCC).
• Peace and prosperity in West Asia is in India’s interest.

Conclusion

• The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, its implications have shown that despite the underlying concerns about human rights and political freedom, the uncertainty in the relationship between the US and other countries in the region will continue. Thus, along with other countries, India should play a decisive role to establish peace in the region.

Sources: The Hindu

Mains Question:

Q. Discuss the implications of the ongoing Russia Ukraine war on the global economy. What can India do to protect its interest? (250 Words).