Date : 15/12/2023

Relevance: GS Paper 2 – International Relations

Keywords: HADR, ‘INDIA OUT’ Campaign, Greater Male Connectivity Project

Context-

In a significant turn of events, President Mohammed Muizzu of the Maldives, on December 4, 2023, confirmed the agreement with India for the withdrawal of over 70 troops deployed in the archipelago nation, primarily engaged in Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) and training. This announcement followed Muizzu's return from the UAE and Turkey. The withdrawal aligns with his key election promise and signifies a noteworthy shift in Maldives' foreign policy. This alteration is not abrupt; it is rooted in a decade-long undercurrent of anti-India sentiment, brought to the forefront during the 2023 presidential campaign.

The Historical Landscape:

The genesis of the 'India Out' campaign can be traced back to 2013 when Abdulla Yameen's administration assumed power, marked by a strong pro-China stance. The opaque infrastructure agreements with Chinese enterprises during Yameen's rule contributed to a growing anti-India sentiment, exacerbated by disinformation campaigns. The discourse surrounding an agreement with India for military assistance, particularly the deployment of helicopters and armed personnel, fueled fears of Indian interference in Maldives' sovereignty. Yameen terminated the agreement in 2015 amid dubious infrastructure deals with Chinese-owned companies and human rights abuses. In 2018, Ibrahim Solih assumed the presidency, reaffirming the 'India First' policy, and even re-signing agreements related to military cooperation.

The Solih Era and Lingering Anti-India Sentiments:

Despite Solih's efforts to mend relations with India, anti-India sentiments continued to simmer. The controversial discourse around Indian military presence resurfaced during the 'India Out' campaign, gaining traction in print, social media, and public demonstrations. Notably, the Indian High Commission became a focal point for expressions of anti-India sentiment, with diplomats targeted on various social media platforms.

The local news outlet, Dhiyares News, played a pivotal role in fanning the flames of the 'India Out' campaign. Even the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) accused the outlet of engaging in a well-funded and orchestrated political campaign to whip up hatred against India. Former President Yameen, aligned with pro-China policies, became a prominent figure in the campaign, adding complexity to the narrative. The presidential campaign of Muizzu, a PNC candidate and coalition partner of Yameen's former party PPM, centered on amplifying social panic generated through the campaign, ultimately leading to the fall of the Solih government.

The Orchestrated War of Narratives:

A report by the Colombo Information Agency shed light on the orchestrated nature of the 'India Out' campaign. Twitter served as a primary platform for the campaign, with the hashtag #IndiaOut gaining traction. The report revealed that a significant number of tweets (59.3k) using the hashtag were generated by a small number of handles (2,252), half of which were created between 2019 and 2021. Notably, nearly half of the newly created handles were identified as fake. The report also highlighted the role of Dhiyares News and its sister journal, The Maldives Journal, in driving the campaign. These outlets, with a pro-China stance, published articles targeting Indian presence and alleging interference in Maldives' internal affairs.

The co-founder of Dhiyares News, Azad Azaan, played a crucial role in the campaign. Half of the handles engaged in sharing the hashtag were followers of Azaan, and his account attracted 12 percent of the total traction. Azaan's pro-China alignment further complicated the narrative. The transformation of this orchestrated disinformation campaign into an organic public discourse shaping the presidential elections underscores the cognitive vulnerabilities in contemporary times.

Implications and Future Prospects:

India has historically been the first responder to the Maldives' political, economic, and natural disasters. Despite this, the acceptance of an anti-India sentiment due to disinformation campaigns is a significant development. The manipulation of popular perceptions has not only changed the domestic political mood but also influenced the direction of the country's diplomatic engagements. The 'India Out' campaign highlights the crucial role of public sentiment in shaping diplomatic pursuits, where bilateral ties are as strong as the support generated by a partner government for a particular policy.

As the Maldives undergoes this diplomatic shift, it is essential to recognize India's continued regional and geopolitical relevance. Regardless of the changing domestic realities in Male, relations with New Delhi will likely remain among the high-priority affairs for the Maldives. The 'India Out' campaign may have created a temporary strain, but the broader historical context and shared interests suggest that the two nations will need to navigate the complexities and find common ground to ensure stability in the region.

Conclusion

The evolving dynamics of India-Maldives relations, as evidenced by the 'India Out' campaign, underscore the intricate interplay of geopolitics, disinformation, and public sentiment. From the pro-China stance of Yameen's era to Solih's 'India First' policy, and now Muizzu's pivot away from Indian military personnel, the trajectory reflects deeper geopolitical shifts in the region. The orchestrated nature of the anti-India campaign, driven by media outlets like Dhiyares News, brings attention to the vulnerability of contemporary societies to disinformation.

While the immediate fallout may strain diplomatic ties, the long-standing historical connections and shared interests between India and the Maldives suggest that the relationship will likely endure. As democracies navigate the complexities of public sentiment, it becomes crucial for both nations to engage in open dialogue, dispel disinformation, and reaffirm the mutual benefits of a strong and stable partnership. In the ever-changing landscape of international relations, the India-Maldives relationship stands as a testament to the resilience required to overcome orchestrated narratives and build enduring alliances based on shared values and interests.

Source- Indian Express