Context:

India is increasingly facing multiple, location-specific natural hazards with rapidly evolving risk landscapes. These risks are a combination of weather events, local population vulnerabilities, and their exposure to such hazards. Effective disaster management involves understanding these risks and planning well-coordinated responses. While the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has been commendable in its efforts to mitigate disasters and reduce their mortality and damage, there are significant knowledge gaps and barriers that hinder its operations from making India weather-ready and climate-resilient. 

Understanding India’s Climate Vulnerability

Weather Extremes Across Regions

Most regions of India have become accustomed to expecting extreme weather events in all seasons, including heatwaves, wildfires, heavy rains, landslides, droughts, and cyclones. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been working to improve its forecasts for these hazards, but these predictions often lack the hyperlocal specificity required for effective disaster response planning. Despite advances in climate research, there is still room for improvement in the accuracy and granularity of forecasts.

Local Manifestations of Climate Change

Climate change manifests differently across India. For instance, there are cooler and warmer temperature trends over northern-central and peninsular India, respectively. However, this does not spare the country from experiencing heatwaves. Rainfall extremes, which used to be mostly confined to the monsoon season (June to September), are now occurring during the pre- and post-monsoons as well. Weakly supported land is increasingly prone to landslides, while the incidence of wildfires is on the rise.

The Complexity of Vulnerability

Socio-Economic Factors Driving Vulnerability

Vulnerability to climate risks is not just a natural phenomenon but is also influenced by socio-economic factors. Due to population growth and economic expansion, people are increasingly settling in unsafe regions, such as unstable slopes and flood-prone areas. The attraction of tourists to exotic locations has prompted the development of infrastructure and economic activities, such as replacing forests with cash crops and plantations, exacerbating the risks. The recent landslides in Wayanad illustrate the dangerous interplay of these factors.

Moral Hazard Created by Insurance Policies

The mix of vulnerability in India is a complex combination of poverty and high population density with poor infrastructure in some areas and wealth coupled with unsafe development in others. Additionally, insurance coverage and policies may inadvertently create a moral hazard by encouraging people to increase their exposure to climate risks.

Examples Highlighting the Challenges

●      Irrigation Advisories for Farmers

Weather forecasts are frequently translated into farm-scale information to guide irrigation decisions from days 1 to 5 and provide water arrangement information for up to 14 days. This process involves combining farmers' inputs on their irrigation practices with data on soil properties, crop types, water requirements, and crop stress to inform decisions about irrigation schedules.

A case study in Nashik district demonstrated the development of a decision-support tool for grape farmers. Co-developed with the farmers, the tool showed that up to 30% of water could be saved in both the kharif and rabi seasons without any loss in crop yield. The next step is large-scale operationalization, which would involve engaging farmers to use this tool and document its effectiveness over several years. This requires the involvement of local governments, NGOs, and farmers' organizations or cooperatives.

●      Need for Extension Agencies

The effective translation of such research into practical applications requires sector-specific extension agencies to bridge the gap between research and administration. However, these bodies currently do not exist in India, nor is there adequate training or funding structures to support research-to-operation programs. Moreover, there is a need to support poorer farmers with soil moisture and crop data to help them plan irrigation. Without these systems and skills, achieving goals such as doubling farmers’ incomes or ensuring a minimum income will be impossible.

●      Urban Flood Predictions

Another critical area that needs attention is urban flood predictions. Downscaling predictions of heavy rainfall to the street level is essential for effective flood control in cities. Currently, municipalities use a combination of data from municipal sensors and weather stations to manage floods. The ideal situation would involve flood managers evaluating forecasts over several seasons to determine their accuracy and then planning the allocation and operation of drainage pumps, traffic control, bus/train routes, and school closures.

●      Need for Trusted Entities

These flood managers need to be trusted employees of government agencies, NGOs, or private entities that can systematically track forecasts and human actions that exacerbate water-logging. However, the current structure of academic institutions and urban governments does not support the comprehensive translation of downscaled forecasts into effective flood risk mitigation strategies.

●      Translating Climate Research into Action

India invests heavily in climate research, forecasts, and climate services, which are designed to translate these forecasts into actionable decision-making tools for sectors such as agriculture, water and energy resources, healthcare, and transportation. However, the uptake of this information has been remarkably low. This is primarily because the data is often not as location- or sector-specific as needed, or there is a lack of skilled personnel to use it effectively. Academia and private ventures are continuously working to improve the downscaling of IMD forecasts to hyperlocal scales and deliver value-added products. Still, operationalizing these improvements in a timely and routine manner remains a significant hurdle.

Moving from Research to Operations

●      Breaking the Silos of Climate Research

Climate research is currently too compartmentalized to be effectively used in disaster management within a reasonable timeframe. While research papers and PhDs were once the primary goals of climate research, the focus must now shift to meeting people’s needs by bringing science to society. Governments and disaster management agencies are increasingly depending on it.

●      The Need for Sector-Specific Extension Agents

There is a clear need for sector-specific extension agents who can act as intermediaries between research and administrative bodies. These agents will play a crucial role in co-developing effective solutions that make India weather-ready. Weather-readiness and climate-resilience must be hyperlocal because the country’s preparedness is only as strong as its weakest link.

●      Capacity-Building and Sustainable Development

Achieving this requires sustained financing of research-to-operations systems at each location and in each sector. There is also an urgent need to invest in capacity-building by training sector-specific extension agents who can communicate in local languages and account for cultural differences in disaster management and risk mitigation. While this may seem like a challenging task, it is essential to ensure India’s development is sustainable and provides safety and security for all, particularly in the face of climate change.

Conclusion

For climate research to effectively contribute to disaster management, it must break free from its academic silos and become more action-oriented. Sector-specific extension agents, capacity-building, and sustained funding are crucial to bridge the gap between research and practical disaster management. By doing so, India can be better prepared for the unpredictable and increasingly frequent extreme weather events that threaten its development and the safety of its people.

Source: The Hin