Context:

The Ukrainians surprised Russia by launching an audacious attack into the Kursk region of the Russian Federation that also led to the capture of several hundred Russian soldiers. This is a bold and risky gambit by the Volodymyr Zelenskyy-led regime.

Overview

The conflict began in 2014 with Russia's annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in Eastern Ukraine's Donbas region. Tensions escalated into full-scale war in February 2022 when Russia launched a major invasion of Ukraine. Leading to heavy international sanctions on Russia targeting its economy, financial sector, and key individuals, and at the same time Ukraine has received substantial military, financial, and humanitarian aid from Western nations, including the U.S., EU countries, and other allies.

Why Ukraine capturing Kursk

Strategic Location:

• Geographical Significance: Kursk is located in western Russia, near the Ukrainian border, which makes it strategically important for operations aimed at disrupting Russian logistics and supply lines.
• Buffer Zone: By engaging Russian forces in Kursk, Ukraine can create a buffer zone that potentially shields its own territory from direct Russian attacks.

Military Impact:

• Disruption of Russian Forces: An offensive into Kursk can force Russia to divert its military resources and attention from other key fronts, particularly in Eastern Ukraine.
• Weak Russian Defences: Kursk has been relatively weakly defended compared to other areas.

Psychological and Propaganda Value:

• Demonstrating Capability: Successfully launching and sustaining an offensive into Russian territory showcases Ukraine's military capabilities and resilience, boosting national morale and international prestige.
• Psychological Impact: Such an offensive serves to undermine Russian confidence and demonstrate that Ukraine can strike back effectively.

 Strategic Leverage:

• Negotiation Power: Gaining control over Kursk could provide Ukraine with additional leverage in potential negotiations or peace talks with Russia.
• Leverage in Diplomacy: The ability to operate inside Russian territory might strengthen Ukraine’s position in diplomatic discussions and negotiations with Western allies and international organisations.

Operational Objectives:

• Depleting Russian Resources: Engaging Russian forces in Kursk could deplete Russian military resources and potentially lead to a reduction in the intensity of their offensive operations within Ukraine.
• Securing Supply Lines: Disrupting Russian logistics and supply lines in Kursk can have a cascading effect on the efficiency and effectiveness of Russian military operations in other regions.
• Symbolic Victory: Capturing or heavily engaging Russian territory like Kursk provides a symbolic victory, showcasing Ukraine’s determination and capability to resist and counterattack.

Reaction of Russia

Military Response:

• Increased Defensive Measures: Russia likely intensified its military defences and countermeasures in Kursk and surrounding regions to repel Ukrainian advances and reclaim lost territory.
• Counteroffensives: Russia might launch counter-offensive operations to regain control over Kursk, utilising its significant military resources and firepower to push back Ukrainian forces.

Strategic Adjustments:

• Operational Shifts: Russia may adjust its military strategies and tactics to address the new dynamics created by Ukraine’s capture of Kursk, potentially focusing on strengthening defences or targeting Ukrainian supply lines and logistics.
• Strategic Communications: Russia would likely engage in strategic communications to downplay the significance of the loss and focus on countering Ukrainian advances through propaganda and public relations efforts.

Potential for Escalation:

• Increased Hostilities: The capture of Kursk could escalate hostilities, leading to intensified military actions and a more aggressive Russian response to regain control and deter further Ukrainian offensives.
• Broader Conflict Impact: The situation could impact broader regional and international dynamics, influencing military strategies, alliances, and diplomatic relations.
• Threat of nuclear attack: Russia can go with small scale ( tactical nuke attack) use on Ukrainian forces. 

Impact on the World

Geopolitical Shifts:

• Increased Tensions: Ukraine's capture of Kursk would heighten geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
• NATO and Western Alliances: The move could lead to stronger support from NATO and Western allies for Ukraine, potentially increasing military aid and diplomatic backing.

Economic Repercussions

●   Energy Markets: Kursk's capture might disrupt Russian energy infrastructure and logistics, impacting global energy markets, especially if it affects oil and gas supplies.

●   Economic Sanctions: The event could prompt additional international sanctions against Russia, further isolating its economy and impacting global trade.

Humanitarian Concerns:

• Displacement and Refugees: The intensified conflict could lead to increased displacement of civilians and refugees, putting additional strain on neighbouring countries and international humanitarian organisations.
• Humanitarian Aid: There may be a surge in international humanitarian aid to support affected populations in Ukraine and neighbouring regions.

Diplomatic Relations:

• International Diplomacy: The capture of Kursk could spur international diplomatic efforts to address the conflict, potentially leading to new peace negotiations or initiatives.
• Global Alliances: Countries may reassess their alliances and positions based on their response to the conflict, affecting global diplomatic and economic relations.
• Propaganda and Messaging: Both Russia and Ukraine would likely use the capture as a tool for propaganda, influencing narratives and public support domestically and internationally.

Conclusion

In summary, Kursk holds strategic, military, psychological, and symbolic importance for Ukraine, offering potential operational advantages while influencing both domestic morale and international support, but there is need to stop further escalation of war because it may take a form of Nuclear attack by Russia on Ukraine that will be more disastrous not only for Russia and Ukraine but for the whole world.

Source- The Hindu