Context-

This month marks a year since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit to the United States, where U.S. President Joseph Biden extended a warm welcome and offered to restart a decade-old plan to transfer technology for jet engines to India. This visit featured several significant announcements of strategic and high-tech cooperation, with the U.S.-India initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) hailed as a major success for bilateral relations. This initiative was expected to set the stage for a new phase in India-U.S. ties.

However, a year later, the pace of the relationship has not matched these ambitions due to various external and internal reasons. As the newly sworn-in Indian Prime Minister engages with the U.S. President at the G-7 outreach summit in Italy, and with senior U.S. officials set to arrive in Delhi, it's crucial to study the "good, the not-so-good, and what could-become ugly" in the relationship closely.

The Crests

Historical Context

The positive aspects of the India-U.S. relationship are evident. Last September marked 25 years since the turnaround in ties post-Pokhran, highlighted by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s famous Asia Society speech in New York on September 28, 1998, where he called India and the U.S. “natural allies in the quest for a better future” for the world in the 21st century. Since then, Delhi and Washington have steadily built up strategic ties, engaging in dialogues on various issues from climate change and green energy to critical and emerging technologies and outer space.

Strategic Trust and Military Cooperation

Over the past decade, strategic trust has grown significantly, marked by the conclusion of foundational agreements, numerous military exercises, growing interoperability, and coordination on maritime operations. Additionally, there have been substantial purchases of military hardware. A broader mutual understanding has emerged as many old irritants in the relationship have faded: the de-hyphenation of U.S.-India ties with Pakistan, the absence of contentious discussions about Jammu and Kashmir, India's increased engagement with the Quad (comprising India, Australia, Japan, and the U.S.), and shared concerns over China’s aggression have brought Delhi and Washington increasingly on the "same page" internationally.

The Not-So-Good

Multilateral Cooperation and Global Conflicts

While bilateral engagement has thrived, challenges remain in multilateral cooperation on global conflicts. Russia’s war in Ukraine has been a significant area of difference. The U.S. frames the war in terms of international rule of law and humanitarian principles, while India adopts a more historical perspective that also considers disruptions to the Global South on issues such as food, fertilizer, and energy security. Some compromises have been reached: the U.S. has withdrawn objections to India’s continued purchase of oil and other Russian exports and refrained from discussing sanctions, while India has postponed the annual India-Russia summit for two years. How the newly-elected Prime Minister navigates engagements with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the coming months, with possible meetings at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Kazakhstan in July and the BRICS Summit in Russia’s Kazan in October, remains to be seen.

U.S. Moralistic Posture

The U.S.'s moralistic stance has softened somewhat due to its support of Israel’s actions in Gaza, despite calls from international bodies like the United Nations, the International Criminal Court, and the International Court of Justice to halt the bombardment and killing of civilians.

The China Factor

Challenges with Quad Cooperation

Concerns over China’s threats against Taiwan and tensions in the South China Sea have impacted India-U.S. cooperation within the Quad. Logistical issues have also played a role. President Biden’s decision to decline the invitation for India’s Republic Day in 2024 led to the postponement of the Quad Summit. Planned visits by U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan were canceled twice this year due to the Gaza crisis, delaying the iCET review. Similarly, the visit by U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, known for his role as Biden’s Indo-Pacific Coordinator, has been affected. He has focused more on “Quad-Plus” meetings with South Korea and the Philippines.

Diplomatic Strains

There has been no Indian Ambassador in Washington for months, and relations with U.S. Ambassador to India Eric Garcetti have been strained following his comments on Manipur and human rights. The U.S. State Department’s remarks on democracy in India before the 2024 general election and the critical reviews in the State Department’s Religious Freedom report have further strained relations, leading to the summoning of a senior U.S. diplomat and widening the gap between the two countries. Washington's approach has been perceived as excessively offensive and interfering, while New Delhi has been seen as prickly and reactive. The U.S.'s decision to wait for the “final results” of the general election before congratulating Mr. Modi, followed by a statement commending civil society and journalists for their contributions to India’s democratic processes, has also caused friction.

The Ugly: Tensions over 'Plots'

Assassination Allegations

Amid these discussions, the attempted assassination of Khalistani separatist and U.S. citizen Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in New York, allegedly ordered by Indian security officials, remains a significant issue. June 2024 marks a year since the plot was uncovered, along with transcripts linking the plot to the killing of Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar outside Toronto in June 2023. Although the details became public only in November last year, discomfort over the perception that India is behind the killing of foreign citizens in friendly countries began to seep into the relationship as Prime Minister Modi visited the U.S. last year. During a visit to Washington this summer, concerns appeared to have broadened, particularly among U.S. intelligence agencies, the Department of Justice, and U.S. Congress members. These concerns are regularly raised by lawmakers and sections of the diaspora accused of terrorism by India. While the U.S. demands that India publicly hold senior officials accountable for the alleged plot, the Government of India’s theory of “rogue actors” being responsible for such a high-profile plot is unlikely to be accepted. India should expedite its high-level investigation to address these concerns. The issue is expected to escalate over the next few months as the trial in New York reveals more details of the U.S. belief, which will also be passed on to Canadian authorities for their trial.

The Way Forward

Coalition Realities and Engagement

Given the need to adjust to new coalition realities following the general election results and the fast-closing window for engagement with the U.S. government as Washington heads into the "lame-duck" season, Indian officials and leaders have their work cut out for them. While a potential Trump presidency in November might resolve some issues, it could also introduce new uncertainties. The opportunity for a Biden-Modi meeting at the G-7 outreach summit, followed by Jake Sullivan’s visit to Delhi to complete the iCET review, as discussed during a recent phone call between the leaders, is both desired and necessary for resetting the relationship, a year after it seemed to have reached "warp speed."

Conclusion

The India-U.S. relationship has seen significant highs and challenges over the past year. While strategic and high-tech cooperation has been a highlight, multilateral differences, logistical challenges, and diplomatic strains have posed obstacles. Addressing these issues requires careful diplomacy, a focus on mutual interests, and a willingness to navigate complex geopolitical landscapes. The upcoming engagements between Indian and U.S. leaders present an opportunity to reset and strengthen this important bilateral relationship.