Context-

Since the beginning of this decade, India has faced a series of unexpected political shifts in its neighbouring countries. The region has witnessed coups, regime changes, and political upheavals, each bringing its own set of challenges for New Delhi. These events, ranging from Myanmar's military coup to the Taliban's takeover in Afghanistan, and from the ouster of Pakistan’s Imran Khan to the electoral changes in the Maldives and Nepal, have reshaped South Asia’s political landscape. India, a major regional power, has had to navigate these turbulent waters with mixed success.

Awareness and Proactive Diplomacy

• The Importance of Early Detection
  • One of the primary lessons for India is the need for proactive engagement and early detection of brewing discontent in its neighborhood. In Bangladesh, for instance, India’s extensive diplomatic presence, including consulates in Chittagong, Rajshahi, Khulna, and Sylhet, alongside its High Commission in Dhaka, should have provided ample insight into the growing discontent against the Sheikh Hasina government. Despite visible signs of the Awami League’s authoritarian drift, including the suppression of political opposition and civil society, New Delhi seemed unprepared for the eventual backlash. This highlights the necessity for India’s diplomatic corps to not only maintain close contact with governing powers but also to keep a pulse on opposition forces and societal trends.
• The Dangers of One-Sided Engagement
  • India’s decision to align closely with specific leaders or parties, as seen in Bangladesh, carries significant risks. While historical grievances, such as those with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) under Khaleda Zia, might justify a cautious approach, completely sidelining opposition parties can backfire. Diplomatic engagement needs to be more balanced, ensuring that India is not caught off guard if the political tides turn. The exclusion of BNP leaders from visiting India and the deportation of a British lawyer representing the BNP at the Hasina government’s request exemplify the dangers of such one-sided policies. As seen in Bangladesh, this can lead to a situation where India finds itself scrambling to build new relationships when the political landscape changes.

Pragmatism in Diplomatic Relations

• Engaging All Stakeholders
  • India’s experiences in Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, and Nepal underscore the importance of maintaining pragmatic relationships with all political stakeholders in neighboring countries. Despite the Taliban's history of attacks on Indian interests, New Delhi has recognized the necessity of engaging with the group following their takeover of Afghanistan. Similarly, in Sri Lanka, India has maintained ties with the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), despite its often anti-India rhetoric. In Nepal, despite past tensions with the Communist Party led by K.P. Sharma Oli, India has continued to engage diplomatically, recognizing that sustained pragmatism often trumps ideological rigidity.
• Flexibility in Policy Approaches
  • In the Maldives, India’s unyielding support for then-President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih and the portrayal of his opponent, Mohamed Muizzu, as anti-India, proved problematic when electoral dynamics shifted. Following Muizzu’s victory, India had to quickly adjust its approach, with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar engaging closely with the new administration. These instances illustrate the importance of flexibility in India’s foreign policy, ensuring that it remains responsive to changing political realities in neighbouring countries.

Preserving Relationships and Managing Reputations

• Standing by Allies
  • A critical takeaway from recent events is the importance of standing by allies in times of need. India’s handling of the situation in Afghanistan, particularly its refusal to grant visas to Afghans fleeing the Taliban, many of whom had supported India’s diplomatic and security interests, has damaged its reputation as a reliable partner. In contrast, India’s decision to allow Sheikh Hasina to stay in the country after her government’s fall demonstrates a more considerate approach, although it could complicate future relations with the new Bangladeshi government. It is essential for India to balance its long-term relationships with the pragmatic demands of realpolitik.
• Addressing Communal Narratives
  • Another crucial lesson is the need to avoid reducing diplomatic relationships to simplistic communal binaries. South Asia is a region of diverse religious majorities, and India’s approach should reflect this complexity. The assumption that religious alignment equates to good diplomatic relations is flawed, as evidenced by the often challenging relationship with Hindu-majority Nepal and the strong ties with Buddhist-majority Bhutan and Muslim-majority Maldives. Policies like the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, which prioritizes non-Muslims from Muslim-majority countries, have sparked widespread concern across the region, reinforcing perceptions of India’s overreach. Moving forward, India must ensure that its actions align with its stated commitment to secularism, both domestically and in its foreign policy.

Reviving Regional Mechanisms and Ensuring Stability

• The Need for Regional Leadership
  • India must reclaim its role as the preeminent power in South Asia, capable of shaping regional dynamics without being overshadowed by global powers like the United States and China. While countering China’s growing influence in the region is essential, India must also focus on reviving pan-South Asian mechanisms such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). The prolonged boycott of SAARC due to bilateral issues with Pakistan has diminished its effectiveness, and India must consider the broader implications of allowing regional cooperation frameworks to atrophy.
• Avoiding External Interference
  • The influence of external powers, particularly the U.S. and China, has complicated India’s relationships in South Asia. In Bangladesh, for instance, the U.S. campaign against Sheikh Hasina’s government, including the imposition of a special “visa policy” aimed at promoting democracy, disregarded India’s interests. To avoid becoming a pawn in global power rivalries, India needs to strengthen its regional partnerships and assert its influence through regional organizations like SAARC and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC).

Addressing Underlying Socio-Economic Issues

• Tackling Joblessness and Inequality
  • Across South Asia, economic issues such as joblessness and unequal growth have fueled public discontent, contributing to the political upheavals witnessed in recent years. While economic progress is crucial, it cannot serve as a substitute for democratic governance and the protection of civil liberties. India and its neighbors must prioritize addressing these socio-economic challenges to ensure long-term stability in the region.
• The Importance of Democratic Governance
  • The suppression of dissent and democratic backsliding in several South Asian countries have exacerbated tensions and instability. India must advocate for democratic values both within its borders and in its neighborhood, recognizing that sustainable development is inextricably linked to democratic governance. As the old adage goes, “If you want to plant a crop for a year, plant corn…If you want to plant a crop for eternity, raise democracies.” This principle should guide India’s approach to its regional relationships, ensuring that it supports democratic institutions and the rule of law across South Asia.

Conclusion

The recent political upheavals in South Asia offer valuable lessons for India as it seeks to navigate a complex and often turbulent neighborhood. By adopting a more balanced and pragmatic approach to its diplomatic engagements, preserving long-term relationships, and reviving regional cooperation mechanisms, India can better insulate itself from the shocks of regional tumult. Additionally, by addressing underlying socio-economic issues and supporting democratic governance, India can contribute to a more stable and prosperous South Asia, where it remains a key player and a trusted partner.

Source- The Indian Express