The Nuclear Legacy of the Kargil War : Daily News Analysis

Context:

The Kargil War, triggered by the infiltration of Pakistani soldiers and their occupation of territory on the Indian side of the Line of Control (LoC), occurred in 1999. The conflict garnered attention globally, not just because of the tense relationship between Pakistan and India but also because both were nuclear-armed states. This limited conflict, occurring between two nuclear-armed states, highlighted both the potential risks and the strategic importance of nuclear doctrines and command systems in managing escalation risks.

Nuclear Threats and Strategic Responses

Nuclear Implications and Threats

During the Kargil conflict, Pakistani officials, particularly then-Foreign Secretary Shamshad Ahmed, issued veiled nuclear threats after India escalated its military actions with infantry, artillery, and air attacks against Pakistani forces. Despite these threats, India adhered to its No-First-Use (NFU) policy and demonstrated strategic acumen by effectively combining military strategy and diplomatic efforts.

India’s Strategic Approach

India's response, characterised by Operation Vijay, involved a well-coordinated military campaign with 200,000 troops aimed at eliminating intruders without crossing into Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK). Additionally, India leveraged international diplomatic support, especially from the United States, to pressure Pakistan to withdraw its forces.

Analysis of Pakistan’s Nuclear Strategy

Impact of Nuclear Weapons on Decision-Making

Many experts, including Timothy Hoyt and S Paul Kapur, believe that Pakistan’s decision to infiltrate Kargil was influenced by its possession of nuclear weapons. However, this view is debated, with some arguing that the historical antagonism and territorial disputes between India and Pakistan were more decisive factors. The conflict also demonstrated the limitations of nuclear weapons in achieving conventional military objectives.

Post-Kargil Realities

The conflict taught Pakistan that such operations have high political costs and damage its international reputation. Despite this, Pakistan has continued to use militancy and terrorism as tools of pressure against India. India's growing economic strength and shifting geopolitical alliances have influenced the balance of power, but diplomatic engagement remains essential for resolving bilateral disputes.

Kargil War of 1999

The Kargil War of 1999 was a pivotal military conflict between India and Pakistan. Here are some key aspects of the war:

Background and Strategic Importance

The Kargil region is strategically significant due to its location around the high-altitude Zojila Pass, which is a crucial link between Srinagar and Leh in northern India. This region’s control is vital for maintaining communication and logistics between these areas. The intrusion through Skardu and Kargil threatened to sever this crucial link, making the region highly vulnerable.

Violation of the Gentlemen’s Agreement

Since 1977, India and Pakistan had an informal understanding that military posts would not be occupied from September 5th to April 15th due to the harsh weather and logistical challenges of winter deployment. However, in the winter of 1998-1999, Pakistan breached this agreement and initiated a covert Kargil campaign.

Intrusions and Initial Indian Response

In late April 1999, Pakistani forces infiltrated and seized around 130 posts across the Line of Control (LOC) in sectors such as Dras, Mushkoh, Kaksar, Batalik, and Chorbat-la. Initially, Indian authorities believed these movements were the work of Kashmiri militants. It was later discovered that the infiltrators were well-trained Northern Light Infantry soldiers from Pakistan.

Challenges for Indian Troops

Indian forces faced severe challenges, including enemy fire from concealed positions on high mountain peaks at altitudes between 13,000 and 18,000 feet. The troops struggled with poor intelligence, inadequate acclimatisation, lack of high-altitude gear, and coordination issues, leading to significant casualties.

Indian Counteroffensive

In response, India launched “Operation Vijay” (Victory) in the third week of May 1999. The Indian Air Force supported ground operations with airstrikes, intensifying the conflict.

International Pressure on Pakistan

As Indian forces began reclaiming territory, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif faced increasing international pressure to withdraw. This led to the Washington Declaration, where U.S. President Bill Clinton mediated, securing an agreement for the withdrawal of Pakistani troops.

Conclusion of the Conflict

On July 11, 1999, the Directors General of Military Operations (DGMOs) from both countries met at the Wagah check post. The Pakistani DGMO agreed to start withdrawing by July 11 and complete it by July 16, which was later extended to July 18. By July 26, 1999, the Indian DGMO declared the complete eviction of Pakistani intruders from the Kargil heights, officially ending the conflict.

Lessons Learned and Strategic Adjustments

Impact on Nuclear Doctrine and Strategy

The Kargil War underscored the need for clear nuclear doctrines and robust command and control systems. India's response highlighted the importance of preparing for nuclear threats and maintaining a credible minimum deterrence. The conflict led to significant changes in India's nuclear posture, including the establishment of the Nuclear Command Authority (NCA) and enhanced crisis management frameworks.

Diplomatic and Defence Reforms

Despite the Kargil War's immediate aftermath, India continued efforts to foster positive bilateral relations through cultural exchanges, trade, and confidence-building measures. However, the slow pace of implementing the Kargil Review Committee's recommendations and the ongoing conflict with China highlight the need for more rapid and effective defence reforms.

Future Hazards and Implications

Deterrence and Preparedness

The Kargil conflict emphasised the importance of military readiness, nuclear deterrence, and diplomatic engagement. Pakistan's aggressive stance, supported by its nuclear arsenal, challenges India's security strategies and highlights the need for continuous improvements in defence and diplomacy.

Regional Stability and Global Stance

India's approach to addressing the Kargil legacy involves balancing robust defence reforms, enhanced deterrence capabilities, and proactive diplomacy. By focusing on comprehensive strategies, India aims to strengthen its national security while maintaining its diplomatic equilibrium.

Conclusion

The Kargil War has had a lasting impact on the nuclear strategies of both India and Pakistan. It highlighted the necessity of clear nuclear doctrines, robust command systems, and international diplomatic engagement in managing escalation risks. The lessons learned from the conflict continue to shape both nations' nuclear policies and military postures, contributing to ongoing efforts to maintain stability in South Asia. Addressing the legacy of Kargil requires a holistic approach that combines defence reforms, deterrence capabilities, and diplomatic efforts to ensure regional stability and improve India's global stance.

Probable Questions for UPSC Mains

1. Discuss the impact of the Kargil War on the nuclear strategies of India and Pakistan. How did the conflict influence the development and implementation of nuclear doctrines and command structures in both countries? (10 Marks, 150 Words)

2. Analyse the lessons learned from the Kargil War regarding the management of nuclear threats and strategic responses. How did the conflict shape India's approach to nuclear deterrence, military preparedness, and diplomatic engagement? (15 Marks, 250 Words)

Source: ORF India