Context-
The geopolitical landscape of the 21st century is marked by a concerning resurgence of nuclear tensions reminiscent of the Cold War era. Recent events, including the United States' subsurface chemical explosion at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) and Russia's subsequent threats, underscore the precarious state of global nuclear security. Against the backdrop of escalating tensions between major nuclear powers and the breakdown of critical arms control agreements, the world finds itself on the brink of a renewed nuclear arms race.
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Important Treaties Partial Test Ban Treaty (PTBT): Originally signed in 1963 by the UK, USA, and USSR, the Partial Test Ban Treaty prohibits the testing of nuclear weapons in the atmosphere, underwater, and in outer space. However, it permits nuclear test explosions underground. Presently, nearly 120 states, including India, are party to this treaty. Treaty for the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT): Entering into force in 1970, the NPT aims to inhibit the spread of nuclear weapons. 191 States, including the five nuclear-weapon States, have joined the Treaty. Its provisions include a periodic review of its operation every five years. The NPT is based on three key pillars: First, States-Parties commit to general and complete disarmament; Second, non-nuclear weapon states (NNWS) forgo development or acquiring nuclear weapons; Third, States-Parties can access and develop nuclear technology for peaceful applications. India, Israel, South Sudan, and Pakistan have never signed the NPT, while North Korea declared withdrawal in the past. India's refusal to sign is based on the requirement for nuclear weapons states to agree on a clear plan for nuclear disarmament. Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT): Negotiations for the CTBT began in the 1990s, with the treaty opening for signatures in 1996. It will become legally binding after ratification by all 44 States listed in Annex 2 to the Treaty. The CTBT aims to curb the development of new nuclear weapons and the improvement of existing nuclear weapon designs. Notably, India, China, the USA, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Iran, Pakistan, Israel, and Egypt have not ratified the CTBT. Treaty on Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW): The TPNW, originating from the Humanitarian Initiative, was adopted in 2017 and will come into force on Jan 22, 2021, 90 days after the 50th state ratified it. It legally binds member states to prohibit the development, testing, production, manufacturing, acquiring, possessing, or stockpiling of nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices. India is not a member of TPNW as it was not part of its negotiations, and it believes the treaty does not contribute to the development of customary international law. Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG): Formed in 1974 in response to India's nuclear test, the NSG is a consensus-driven group of 48 nuclear supplier countries. It seeks non-proliferation of nuclear weapons through the implementation of two sets of Guidelines for nuclear exports and nuclear-related exports. The NSG holds annual consultations to control dual-use commodities and technology related to nuclear weapons and fuel-cycle activities. India applied for NSG membership in 2016 but has faced opposition, particularly from China, which argues that India must first become an NPT member before joining the NSG. |
The NNSS Chemical Explosion and its Implications
The US conducted a subsurface chemical explosion at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) on 18 October 2023, ostensibly to enhance its ability to detect low-yield nuclear explosions. While the test was framed within the context of non-proliferation efforts, it triggered concerns from Russia, which issued veiled threats of conducting nuclear tests in response. This episode highlights the fragility of global efforts to maintain nuclear stability and the potential for escalation in the absence of robust arms control mechanisms.
Russia's Withdrawal from the CTBT and Growing Tensions
The timing of the NNSS test coincided with Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to de-ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) on 2 November 2023. Citing parity with the US, Russia justified its withdrawal from the treaty, exacerbating existing tensions between the two nuclear superpowers. Despite assurances that the withdrawal did not signal intent to conduct nuclear tests, Russia's actions underscore the deteriorating state of arms control agreements.
Erosion of Arms Control Dialogue and Strategic Stability
The breakdown of arms control dialogue between the US and Russia, exacerbated by the conflict in Ukraine, has further destabilized global security. The suspension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) in February 2023 deprived the international community of crucial mechanisms for nuclear transparency and risk reduction. The erosion of strategic stability, coupled with the absence of meaningful dialogue, has created a dangerous vacuum ripe for increased militarization and competition.
Modernization of Nuclear Arsenals: Quantitative and Qualitative Shifts
Both the US and Russia have embarked on aggressive modernization efforts, encompassing both quantitative and qualitative enhancements to their nuclear arsenals. The development of advanced delivery systems and warhead designs, including hypersonic technology and nuclear-powered engines, represents a significant departure from Cold War-era arms control frameworks. China's emergence as a formidable nuclear power further complicates the strategic landscape, necessitating a comprehensive reassessment of global security paradigms.
Escalating Technological Arms Race
The proliferation of advanced technologies, including hypersonic missiles and artificial intelligence, has ushered in a new era of technological competition in the nuclear domain. China's rapid advancements in hypersonic capabilities and unconventional delivery systems pose a direct challenge to established nuclear powers, amplifying the risk of inadvertent escalation and conflict. The convergence of emerging technologies with traditional nuclear arsenals underscores the urgent need for coordinated risk mitigation strategies.
Infrastructure Expansion and Preparations for Nuclear Testing
Satellite imagery reveals significant infrastructure expansion at nuclear testing sites in Russia, the US, and China, signaling preparations for the potential resumption of testing activities. The militarization of Arctic territories and the construction of underground facilities underscore the strategic imperative for maintaining nuclear readiness in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment. Any miscalculation or misinterpretation of intentions could precipitate a dangerous cycle of escalation, further exacerbating global tensions.
Implications for Strategic Stability and Global Security
The convergence of geopolitical rivalries, technological advancements, and deteriorating arms control frameworks poses profound implications for strategic stability and global security. The emergence of a three-pronged nuclear arms race, involving the US, Russia, and China, fundamentally alters the dynamics of international relations. The erosion of traditional deterrence mechanisms and the specter of combined aggression from multiple actors underscore the urgent need for renewed diplomatic engagement and multilateral cooperation.
India Stand
India has consistently advocated for multilateral nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation efforts. In 1988, India presented a comprehensive proposal for "complete and universal nuclear disarmament" at the UN General Assembly Special Session on Disarmament. As part of the "Group of 21" in 1996, India submitted a Programme of Action calling for the "phased elimination of nuclear weapons" to the Conference on Disarmament. India has reaffirmed its support for a Nuclear Weapons Convention, advocating for a verifiable and non-discriminatory elimination of all nuclear weapons.
India's decision not to sign the 1968 "discriminatory" Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) and its subsequent peaceful nuclear tests have raised questions about its credibility as a sincere advocate for nuclear disarmament. However, India consistently emphasizes its commitment to complete disarmament rather than partial disarmament as defined by the NPT.
Conclusion:
As the world stands at the precipice of a renewed nuclear arms race, the imperative for collective action and diplomatic leadership has never been greater. Addressing the multifaceted challenges posed by emerging technologies, geopolitical tensions, and institutional inertia requires a concerted effort to revitalize arms control frameworks and restore trust among nuclear powers. The stakes could not be higher, and the consequences of inaction are too grave to ignore. Only through sustained dialogue, cooperation, and commitment to shared security interests can the international community avert the looming threat of nuclear catastrophe and safeguard the future of humanity.
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Source- The Indian Express
