Context:
The global nuclear order (GNO), established during the Cold War, has long symbolized the fragile equilibrium between major powers and the effort to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. Originally created by the United States and the Soviet Union, the GNO depended on bilateral mechanisms, arms control negotiations, and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to ensure strategic stability and limit nuclear proliferation. However, evolving geopolitical dynamics and shifts in global power structures are now placing significant pressure on the once-robust foundations of the GNO.
|
What is NPT? Background: The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is an international agreement established in 1968, with the primary objectives of preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and technology, promoting the peaceful use of nuclear energy, and advancing global disarmament efforts. The treaty officially came into force in 1970 and currently boasts 191 member states. Membership and Criteria: While the majority of nations, totaling 191, are signatories to the NPT, India stands apart as one of the five countries that either refrained from signing or signed but later withdrew. This exclusive list includes Pakistan, Israel, North Korea, and South Sudan. The NPT defines nuclear-weapon states parties as those that manufactured and detonated a nuclear weapon or other nuclear explosive devices before January 1, 1967. Commitment to Disarmament: The NPT serves as a unique and binding commitment within a multilateral framework, specifically addressing the disarmament goals of nuclear-weapon states parties. It requires participating countries to renounce any current or future plans to develop nuclear weapons, in exchange for access to the peaceful applications of nuclear energy. India's Perspective: India has consistently held a critical stance towards the NPT, deeming it discriminatory. India has not signed the treaty, arguing that it favors the established nuclear powers and fails to address the concerns of non-nuclear states. India's refusal to join the NPT is rooted in its opposition to international agreements on non-proliferation, contending that such treaties selectively apply to non-nuclear states and reinforce the monopoly of the five nuclear-armed nations. |
Lessons of the Cold War:
The origins of the GNO can be traced back to the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, a pivotal moment that compelled U.S. President John F. Kennedy and Soviet General Secretary Nikita Khrushchev to establish mechanisms for preventing nuclear escalation. The hotline, created in 1963, symbolized the first step in managing tensions, followed by arms control negotiations and the initiation of multilateral efforts to control nuclear proliferation. The NPT, emerging in 1968 with 191 signatories today, became a cornerstone of the GNO.
The Nuclear Suppliers Group, originating from the 1974 peaceful nuclear explosive test by India, further reinforced efforts to control the spread of nuclear technology. Despite the U.S.-U.S.S.R. nuclear arms race during the Cold War, arms control measures and dialogues contributed to a semblance of managing the escalating competition. Notably, the GNO achieved success in maintaining a taboo against nuclear weapons and preventing widespread proliferation, with only a handful of additional nuclear-armed nations since the 1968 NPT signing.
Changing Geopolitics:
The once-bipolar world has given way to a multipolar reality, with the United States now facing an assertive China on both regional and global fronts. Unlike the Cold War rivalry, the economic and technological interdependence between the U.S. and China adds complexity to their relationship. China's increasing naval and missile capabilities in the South China and East China Seas, coupled with resentment towards U.S. presence, further complicate the geopolitical landscape.
This changing dynamic has strained U.S.-Russia treaties, including the withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in 2002 and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019. The New START agreement, the last remaining treaty, is set to lapse in 2026, and strategic stability talks initiated in 2021 collapsed amid the Ukraine war. Russia's de-ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) raises concerns about the potential resumption of nuclear testing. The once-stable understanding of nuclear deterrence between the U.S. and Russia is now in question.
|
About CTBT? The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) emerged during the Cold War era, addressing global concerns about nuclear testing's environmental and health impacts. Previous treaties, like the LTBT and TTBT, limited testing but fell short of a comprehensive ban. The CTBT, negotiated in 1994 and adopted by the UN in 1996, marked a significant breakthrough by imposing a complete ban on nuclear weapons testing. Though signed by 187 nations and ratified by 178, it requires ratification by specific nations, with eight, including China, India, and the United States, yet to endorse it for the treaty to enter into force. Note – India is neither the signatory of NPT nor CTBT. |
Cold War Convergence and Nuclear Realities:
The historical convergence on non-proliferation during the Cold War has run its course. The longevity of nuclear weapons technology, now 75 years old, prompts a reassessment of policies. The pragmatic streak in U.S. foreign policy, evident in turning a blind eye to Israel's nuclear program and China's assistance to Pakistan, adds complexity to the GNO. Recent developments, such as the AUKUS deal involving the U.S., U.K., and Australia, raise concerns within the NPT community about the potential erosion of non-proliferation norms.
Nuclear Ambitions and Regional Dynamics:
Regional actors are reconsidering their nuclear options in response to shifting global dynamics. South Korea, once actively considering a nuclear weapons program in the 1970s, joined the NPT under U.S. pressure. However, recent opinion polls indicate growing support for developing a national nuclear deterrent. Similarly, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea possess the technical capabilities to develop independent nuclear deterrents, raising questions about U.S. 'extended deterrence' guarantees, particularly in East Asia.
Conclusion:
The global nuclear order, conceived in the crucible of Cold War tensions, faces unprecedented challenges in the contemporary multipolar world. The evolving dynamics between major powers, the erosion of Cold War-era treaties, and the emergence of regional nuclear ambitions compel a comprehensive reassessment of global nuclear governance. As the GNO navigates these turbulent waters, it is imperative for the international community to engage in meaningful dialogue, reinvigorate arms control efforts, and adapt existing frameworks to address the complexities of the modern geopolitical landscape.
In this era of heightened uncertainty, fostering global cooperation and re-establishing convergence among major powers is essential to uphold the principles of strategic stability, prevent nuclear proliferation, and ensure the continued survival of humanity in the nuclear age. The challenges may be formidable, but the lessons of the Cold War and the successes of the GNO provide a foundation upon which a renewed and resilient global nuclear order can be built.
|
Probable Questions for UPSC Mains Exam
|
Source – The Indian Express
