Context-

The ongoing terrorist attacks in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) underscore the persistent threat posed by Pakistan-sponsored terrorism. Despite decades of conflict and various policy approaches from India, including recent security measures and diplomatic efforts, the challenge remains unresolved.

India-Pakistan Relations: Historical Overview

• Phase of Hostility (1947 – 2001) Following partition in 1947, conflict over Kashmir erupted into wars in 1947, 1965, and 1971, with UN interventions and agreements like the Tashkent and Shimla Agreements attempting to manage tensions. In 1984, India secured the Siachen glacier. Nuclear tests by both nations in 1998 and the Kargil War in 1999 escalated hostilities. The attack on the Indian Parliament in 2001 intensified tensions.
• Pacification Phase (2001-2008) Efforts like the Lahore Declaration and Vajpayee’s initiatives aimed at peace, alongside the Composite Dialogue Process from 2004, though the Mumbai attacks in 2008 strained relations.
• Phase of Passive Relations (2008 – 2015) Minimal dialogue and trust-building efforts characterized this period, despite India's Neighborhood First Policy and a notable visit by the Indian PM to Pakistan in 2015.
• Renewed Hostility (2015 – 2019) Escalating tensions, fueled by attacks and projects like the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The Pulwama attack in 2019 led to Indian airstrikes in Balakot and diplomatic crises.

Recent Escalating Violence in Jammu and Kashmir and role of Pakistan

• Recent Incidents and Casualties : Recent incidents have seen a tragic loss of seven security personnel in J&K, following a series of four terror attacks in June. These attacks, attributed to Pakistani involvement, highlight a resurgence in violence despite periods of relative calm.
• Impact of Attacks on Regional Stability : The situation challenges assumptions about the efficacy of India's muscular policies, including the revocation of J&K's special status, which was intended to curb Pakistan's influence but has not halted cross-border terrorism.

Pakistan's Strategic Calculus

• Recalibrating Terrorism Tactics : Pakistan's role in supporting terrorism in J&K remains pivotal, despite external pressures and internal challenges. The Pakistani establishment, while facing internal instability and geopolitical shifts, continues to recalibrate its terrorist activities. This includes adjusting tactics in response to international scrutiny, such as actions by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), while maintaining a hostile stance towards India.
• Revocation of Article 370 : The revocation of Article 370, which granted special status to J&K, aimed to integrate the region more closely with India. However, it has not extinguished Pakistan's narrative challenging the accession of J&K to India. The ongoing violence underscores the persistent nature of the Pakistan factor in the region's instability, complicating efforts for lasting peace and development.

Diplomatic Challenges and Bilateral Relations

• Inconsistent Bilateral Dialogue : Efforts to manage tensions through bilateral dialogue have been inconsistent, marked by periodic escalations and sporadic attempts at reconciliation. The slogan "terror and talks cannot go together" reflects public sentiment in India, limiting diplomatic maneuverability despite occasional behind-the-scenes engagements.
• Internal Political Dynamics in Pakistan : Pakistan's internal political dynamics, including tensions between civilian leaders and the military establishment, further complicate efforts to normalize relations.
• Suspension of Trade and Economic Cooperation : The suspension of trade and diplomatic ties following India's policy changes in 2019, exacerbated by political polarization in Pakistan, has hindered economic cooperation. Despite calls from segments of industry and political leaders like Nawaz Sharif for resuming trade, the military-led stance against normalization with India remains entrenched.

Security Imperatives and Counter-terrorism Strategies

• Strengthening Border Defenses : India's response has largely focused on bolstering security measures to counter Pakistan-sponsored terrorism. This includes strengthening border defenses and enhancing counter-terrorism capabilities.
• Limitations of Security-Centric Approaches : However, the security-centric approach faces limitations in achieving sustainable changes in Pakistan's behavior, particularly given the deepening China-Pakistan military alliance and the nuclear dimension of their relationship.

Comprehensive Strategy for Addressing Terrorism

Looking ahead, India's approach must balance punitive measures against Pakistan with diplomatic initiatives aimed at reducing tensions and promoting regional stability. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has highlighted the need for a comprehensive strategy to address cross-border terrorism, suggesting ongoing policy refinements in response to evolving security challenges.

• India’s Neighbourhood First Policy: Emphasizes the importance of normalizing relations with neighboring countries, especially Pakistan, through peaceful bilateral resolution and the elimination of terrorism and violence. Calls for Pakistan to create a conducive environment for constructive dialogue.
• National Security Stance: India should maintain firm action against threats to its security and territorial integrity.
• Religious Diplomacy: Engagement with religious traditions is crucial for the future of India-Pakistan relations. Initiatives like the Kartarpur Corridor, facilitating Indian devotees' access to Gurdwara Kartarpur Sahib in Pakistan, exemplify this approach.
• Turning Tragedy into Opportunity: Reports of protests in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) suggest potential law-and-order challenges and refugee influx. However, these protests also present an opportunity to address regional instability and potentially expand India’s influence.
• Potential for Revival of SAARC: Despite past challenges, India's increasing global stature and Pakistan's declining influence make SAARC's revival feasible. This could help in addressing regional strategic concerns posed by initiatives like China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
• Diplomatic Opportunities for India: Insists on conditions for formal talks with Pakistan, including a genuine commitment to halting terrorism and resolving the Kashmir issue. Emphasizes the need for concrete actions to address security concerns before substantive dialogue can proceed.

Conclusion

The recurring cycle of violence in Jammu and Kashmir demonstrates the enduring nature of the India-Pakistan conflict. Despite efforts spanning decades, including recent policy shifts and diplomatic engagements, achieving lasting peace remains elusive. The path forward requires a nuanced approach that combines robust security measures with sustained diplomatic efforts aimed at addressing the root causes of bilateral tensions. Only through such a comprehensive strategy can both countries hope to mitigate the impact of terrorism and foster a more stable regional environment.

Source - Indian express