Date : 17/06/2023

Relevance – GS Paper 2 - International Relations

Key Words: Nuclear arrangement, pre-emptive military action, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, ballistic missile development,

Context –

• Interactions between American and Iranian diplomats have recently been made public, indicating progress in talks between the two countries.
• The Foreign Minister of Oman, Sayyid Badr Albusaidi, confirmed the ongoing negotiations regarding the release of American prisoners in Iran and a fresh deal on the nuclear issue.
• Iranian officials also acknowledged indirect talks with the United States in Muscat. This article delves into the details and implications of the proposed nuclear arrangement.

Details of the Nuclear Arrangement:

• Following the visit of Brett McGurk, the White House Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, to Oman in May, Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Al Said visited Tehran, possibly carrying a message from the U.S. for Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Ayatollah Khamenei publicly addressed the matter, emphasizing the need for a new agreement that would preserve Iran's nuclear infrastructure while affirming the country's commitment to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors.
• Reports suggest that the expected agreement, set to be finalized in a few weeks, will be informal and unwritten.
• Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, referred to it as a "mini-agreement," while Iranian officials see it as a "political ceasefire."
• The key elements of the arrangement include Iran freezing its nuclear enrichment at 60%, refraining from attacking U.S. military contractors in Syria and Iraq, improving cooperation with IAEA inspectors, ceasing the provision of ballistic missiles to Russia, and releasing three U.S. citizens held in Iran.
• In return, the U.S. has pledged to avoid imposing new harsh sanctions on Iran, refrain from seizing oil tankers in the Gulf waters, and abstain from pursuing anti-Iran resolutions in the United Nations.
• Additionally, the U.S. is expected to unfreeze Iran's bank accounts worth around $80 billion held in various banks outside the country, along with facilitating the immediate release of $7 billion in South Korea and $2.7 billion in Iraq.

American Interests:

• The informal nature of the agreement means that the Joe Biden administration does not need to seek Congressional approval.
• Furthermore, since it does not involve easing existing U.S. sanctions, Republicans will face challenges in criticizing the deal during the upcoming presidential campaign.
• The U.S. acknowledges that the original Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (Iran nuclear deal) cannot be revived in its previous form.
• There are demands for a broader agreement that addresses Iran's ballistic missile development, regional influence, and support for terrorism—areas where little progress is expected. U.S. officials also recognize the diminishing effectiveness of sanctions in influencing Iran's response to American pressure.

Focus of the Proposed Arrangement:

• The proposed arrangement primarily addresses concerns regarding Iran's uranium enrichment program, which had reached 84%, and its stockpile of installed centrifuges.
• The U.S. military estimated that Iran was just "several months" away from obtaining a nuclear weapon, while Israeli sources believed it would take one to two years.
• Iran's progress toward acquiring a weapon raised significant concerns about a potential regional conflict, with Israel expected to take pre-emptive military action with or without U.S. involvement.

Implications and Ground Realities:

• Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israel would not be bound by this arrangement.
• However, given the reduced influence of the current Israeli government and their anti-democratic initiatives, it is unlikely they will garner backing in Washington to overturn the deal.

Conclusion –

Iran enters into the arrangement with no illusions about its long-term value. At best, it will survive the present Biden administration. Nevertheless, the agreement will release billions of dollars, which Iran can utilize to improve the living conditions of its citizens. Iran will also be able to continue selling some.

Source– The Hindu