Context-

The recent geopolitical developments surrounding St. Martin's Island, located in the Bay of Bengal, have garnered significant attention, particularly in light of the political upheaval in Bangladesh. Speculation has emerged about the United States' vested interest in the island, contributing to concerns about foreign interference in the ousting of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

The Controversial Speech and US Involvement Allegations

• The aftermath of Sheikh Hasina's ousting has been marked by reports suggesting that foreign involvement played a role in her downfall. Central to these speculations is an undelivered speech attributed to Hasina, which allegedly reveals that she could have maintained power had she acceded to US demands regarding St. Martin's Island. This speech, though denied by her son Sajeeb Wazed Joy, has fueled suspicions due to Hasina's previous references to the island in a similar context.
• In May 2024, Hasina claimed that a "white man" offered her a seamless re-election in the January 7 elections if she allowed a foreign country to establish an airbase on Bangladeshi territory. She alluded to this as one of her "crimes," implying that rejecting such demands led to her ousting. While the US State Department, through spokesperson Matthew Miller, denied any such negotiations, the incident has reignited concerns about American interests in the region, particularly in St. Martin's Island.

Geostrategic Significance of St. Martin's Island

• St. Martin's Island is strategically located in the northeastern part of the Bay of Bengal, approximately 9 kilometers south of the Teknaf coast in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh, and 8 kilometers west of northwestern Myanmar. Its position makes it an ideal location for surveillance and control over the Bay of Bengal, an area that has gained strategic importance due to China's assertive actions in the Indian Ocean region.

• China's increasing investments in the littoral countries of the Bay of Bengal, under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), have raised concerns among other regional and global powers. Notably, Beijing assisted in building Bangladesh's first submarine base, BNS Sheikh Hasina, off the coast of Cox's Bazar. The inauguration of this base in 2023 marked a significant step in China's expanding maritime presence in the Bay of Bengal. Additionally, reports of China's intelligence facility on Myanmar's Coco Island, near the strategic Strait of Malacca, further emphasize its ambitions in the region.
• For the United States, China's expanding influence in the Bay of Bengal poses a challenge to its interests in the Indo-Pacific. The island's location near the Strait of Malacca, a critical chokepoint for China's energy imports, adds to its strategic value. The US may see St. Martin's Island as a potential site to augment its Indo-Pacific strategy, especially given the geographic distance from its Indian Ocean support facility at Diego Garcia.

China's Growing Maritime Power and US Strategic Interests

• China's rapid expansion in the Indian Ocean, particularly in the Bay of Bengal, is expected to continue in the coming decade as it seeks to solidify its status as a great power. While the US maintains robust power projection capabilities in the region, including the Seventh Fleet based in Yokosuka, Japan, it may feel the need for a more immediate presence closer to the Bay of Bengal to counterbalance China's influence.
• The Bay of Bengal's strategic importance has become more pronounced as the US-China rivalry intensifies in the Pacific. The US Indo-Pacific strategy, which has primarily focused on trade, technology, and security, may need to recalibrate to include a stronger security presence in the Indian Ocean. St. Martin's Island could serve as a crucial node in this strategy, linking US assets in the Fifth Fleet, Diego Garcia, and the Seventh Fleet.
• However, the US approach to the Indian Ocean has traditionally differed from its strategies in other regions. Since the Cold War, the Indian Ocean has been perceived through a regional lens, with a focus on maintaining a balance of power rather than direct intervention. This approach is reflected in initiatives like the Quad, which emphasizes regional security through cooperation among the US, India, Japan, and Australia.

Historical Disputes and the Arakan Army's Claim

• St. Martin's Island has long been a point of contention, both regionally and internationally. Historically, Bangladeshi fishermen were frequently detained by the Myanmar Navy for allegedly crossing maritime boundaries. This issue was only resolved in 2012 by the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS), which delineated the maritime boundary between Bangladesh and Myanmar.
• More recently, the Arakan Army, a rebel group in Myanmar, has laid claim to the island as they fled persecution by the Myanmar military junta. This development prompted Bangladesh to deploy warships to the area, though the government officially denied the Arakan Army's claim. The island's strategic location and resources make it a valuable asset for Bangladesh, both in terms of national security and economic potential, particularly through trade and tourism.

Balancing Geopolitical Realities with Domestic Challenges

• As Bangladesh navigates the complex geopolitics of the Bay of Bengal, the security of St. Martin's Island remains a critical concern. The island's significance extends beyond its geographic location; it is emblematic of the broader regional power struggles that are unfolding in the Indo-Pacific.
• The alleged US interest in the island, coupled with China's expanding influence, places Bangladesh at the center of a strategic competition between major powers. Ensuring the security of St. Martin's Island will be crucial for Dhaka, regardless of the changing political landscape. The interim government must focus on addressing the real economic and governance issues that have fueled domestic unrest, leading to the downfall of the Hasina government.
• Blaming foreign interference for domestic political challenges is not a new tactic, having been frequently employed during the Cold War. However, in the current context, Bangladesh must prioritize stabilizing its internal situation while managing its strategic assets in the face of external pressures.

Conclusion

St. Martin's Island has emerged as a new flashpoint in the Bay of Bengal, drawing attention from regional and global powers alike. The island's strategic location and the interests of major players like the US and China underscore its importance in the broader geopolitical landscape of the Indo-Pacific.

As the US and China continue to vie for influence in the region, the future of St. Martin's Island will be closely watched. For Bangladesh, maintaining control over the island while balancing relations with both powers will be a delicate task. The island's role in the evolving power dynamics of the Bay of Bengal will likely shape the region's security and political landscape for years to come.

Source- ORF