Context

In 2023, the most severe humanitarian crisis in West Asia-North Africa (WANA) emerged not from Gaza, but from Sudan. The brutal conflict between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), headed by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemayti (“My Protector”), has wreaked havoc on the country. While estimates vary, the situation is dire: up to 150,000 people have died, nearly 10 million—about a fifth of Sudan’s population—have been displaced, with 2.5 million fleeing the country. These numbers are nearly four times higher than those in Gaza. Once a Nile-fed agrarian economy known for food exports, Sudan is now on the verge of severe famine and facing outbreaks of diseases like cholera.

A history of strife

• Historical Context

Sudan, a large and multi-ethnic country, has a long history of civil strife and misgovernance. Since gaining independence in 1956, Sudan has experienced 15 military coups and two civil wars, resulting in 1.5 million deaths and the secession of South Sudan in 2011. For the past two decades, the Darfur region has been embroiled in conflict, primarily driven by the Janjaweed militia (the precursor to the RSF) against local non-Arab Muslims, causing over 200,000 deaths and displacing two million people.

• Current Crisis Origins

The current crisis traces back to the 30-year autocratic rule of dictator Omar Hassan al-Bashir, who was overthrown in a military coup in April 2019 following widespread protests. The Transitional Military Council attempted to form a joint military-civilian sovereignty council and draft a new constitution through framework agreements with citizens’ groups. This arrangement faltered after two years, leading to another military coup in October 2021, placing Gen. al-Burhan in power. Although a power-sharing framework was revived due to street protests and international pressure, it failed to stabilize the situation.

• Conflict Dynamics

The RSF rejected the December 2022 draft framework that proposed its integration into the Sudanese Army, exacerbating the conflict. On April 15, 2023, armed conflict erupted between the SAF (with around 300,000 troops) and the RSF (with nearly 100,000 fighters). Beneath the surface, the conflict is driven by the ambitions of the two warlords rather than ideological or ethnic issues. The ongoing conflict has overshadowed the original goal of establishing civilian rule.

• Current Situation

For the past 16 months, a civil war has ravaged much of Sudan, which is nearly two-thirds the size of India. Despite its larger size and air force, the SAF struggled to control the conflict, ultimately relocating from Khartoum to Port Sudan. The RSF's two decades of ethnic cleansing in Darfur and other areas have led to strong resistance from various ethnic groups supporting the SAF. The RSF has seen some success in the south-central region of Sudan.

Foreign Interests and Geostrategic Involvement

• Strategic Importance: Sudan's location, with borders shared with seven countries and a Red Sea coastline, combined with its natural resources like crude oil, gold, and fertile land, makes it a significant geopolitical and economic asset.
• Competing Interests:

1. 1. Egypt: Supports the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), despite its rivalry with Iran.
   2. Iran: Supports the SAF’s adversaries, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
   3. Russia: The Wagner Group supports the RSF, while the Kremlin has lobbied the SAF for a naval base in Port Sudan.
   4. United Arab Emirates (UAE): Provides significant backing to the RSF, including weapons and gold laundering.
   5. Mercenaries: Fighters from South Sudan, Russia, and Ukraine have joined the conflict, predominantly supporting the RSF.
   6. Ethiopia and Eritrea: Awaiting opportunities to influence the situation.

International Response and Efforts

• Diplomatic Attempts: Saudi Arabia, the U.S., the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), and the African Union have tried to broker a ceasefire, but these efforts have been unsuccessful due to the stubbornness of the warring parties.
• UN Security Council: Took nearly 11 months to pass a resolution on the conflict, which was more aspirational than actionable.
•  International Criminal Court (ICC): Has initiated some preliminary investigations into war crimes in Sudan.
• Recent Peace Talks: U.S.-sponsored talks in Geneva last month began poorly, with SAF boycotting due to objections over UAE participation. The talks, which concluded on August 23, did not result in a ceasefire but led to an agreement to open three humanitarian relief corridors.

Indian Stakes in Sudan

Trade Relations:

• Record Trade: In 2022-23, India’s direct trade with Sudan reached a record $2.034 billion, with a favorable trade ratio of 9:1 in India’s favour, focusing on sugars and petroleum products.
• Indirect Exports: India also benefits from substantial indirect exports to Sudan via the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Investments and Commitments

• Major Investment: In 2003, India made its first significant foreign investment in Sudan’s upstream sector, totalling nearly $2.3 billion.
• Presidential Visit: Indian President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam’s state visit to Sudan in October 2003 was notably successful.
• Lines of Credit: India has committed approximately $700 million in lines of credit to Sudan.
• People to people ties, Educational and Medical Exchanges: Strong connections persist due to Sudanese students and medical tourists in India.

Potential Risks:

• Islamic Militancy: A prolonged conflict in Sudan could revive latent Islamic militancy, posing a potential threat to India’s interests.
•  Mass death due to food crisis: as here is mass migration leading to food crisis and bad humanitarian assistance.

The unrest and ongoing conflicts in the Saharan region underscore a complex and volatile situation characterized by deep-seated historical grievances, ethnic tensions, and geopolitical rivalries. The protracted conflicts, such as those seen in Sudan and across the Sahel, have led to severe humanitarian crises, including widespread displacement, loss of life, and economic devastation. The involvement of various foreign actors, each pursuing their own strategic interests, further complicates efforts to achieve lasting peace and stability. Addressing these challenges requires a coordinated international approach, focusing on both immediate humanitarian relief and long-term solutions that address the root causes of conflict. Only through sustained diplomatic engagement, regional cooperation, and support for inclusive governance can the Saharan region hope to achieve lasting peace and development.

Source: The Hindu