Context-

The ongoing conflict between Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and the military junta in Myanmar has escalated into a severe humanitarian crisis, prompting discussions at the United Nations Security Council on July 3. In light of this crisis, experts have suggested that India should reassess its policy towards Myanmar.

The Need for a Policy Course Correction

• Coordination Among EAOs and the PDF : Experts highlight that since October 2023, the EAOs and the People’s Defence Force (PDF) in Myanmar have been working in coordination to resist the military junta. These groups, which have been fighting the junta for years, now control approximately 45% of Myanmar’s territory. This coordinated effort has raised calls for a policy rethink from India, primarily for two reasons:
  • The direct impact of the conflict on India is evidenced by the influx of refugees and the fact that these EAOs receive support from China.
  • Additionally, these groups control major trading routes along the India-Myanmar, Myanmar-China, and Thailand-Myanmar borders.
• Existing Indian Policy and New Realities : Experts explain that India’s traditional policy towards Myanmar has two main facets: maintaining cordial relations with the military junta and supporting democratic forces to strengthen democracy. However, the situation in Myanmar has drastically changed in the last three years. The military cannot impose its will entirely, and the people have rebelled without fully prevailing, resulting in a military, political, and diplomatic stalemate. This evolving scenario calls for a review and possible course correction in India’s policy.

The Humanitarian Imperative

• The Dire Humanitarian Situation : Experts emphasize the severe humanitarian crisis in Myanmar. People need access to water, sanitary products, and medical supplies. Many young people with severe injuries are unable to receive necessary surgeries. Some have managed to cross into Mizoram and travel to Delhi, but their numbers are limited. They suggest that India could start by providing humanitarian assistance in border areas, which would be a non-controversial way to intervene and could earn goodwill from Myanmar’s population.
• The Role of Humanitarian Assistance : Experts concur that addressing the humanitarian crisis is critical. They suggest that India should discuss with the government in Naypyidaw to ensure that humanitarian aid reaches those in need, even in areas not controlled by the government. This approach would enhance India’s humanitarian image and demonstrate its commitment to stability and well-being in Myanmar.

Geopolitical Implications

• Concerns of Balkanization : Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s recent comments about an international plan to create a Christian state in part of Myanmar underscore the potential for further fragmentation. Experts acknowledge that while the creation of a Christian state within Myanmar is not widely perceived in India, the threat of Balkanization is real and concerning. This fragmentation is not in the interest of Myanmar’s people or its neighbors. Hence, India’s involvement in dialogues such as the Track 1.5 and Track 2 dialogues, initiated by Thailand, is essential.
• The Kuki State Idea : Experts bring attention to the idea of a larger Kuki state, which includes parts of Myanmar and directly impacts India’s Northeast. This notion has prompted underground Kuki groups to control routes along the Manipur border. Such developments necessitate a closer engagement from India to address these emerging dynamics.

Dialogue and Reconciliation

• Engaging with the NUG and the Military Junta : Experts point out that the National Unity Government (NUG) in Myanmar is currently focused on discussing a federal union rather than reconciliation with the military junta. The NUG is considering a federal structure that maintains Myanmar’s territorial integrity, an idea that India has a vested interest in. While reconciliation with the junta might not be on the agenda, there is room for dialogue about Myanmar’s future political structure, in which India can play a constructive role.
• India’s Diplomatic Leverage : Experts advise that India must maintain its relationship with the military government while leveraging its influence to address the humanitarian crisis. By engaging with the military rulers, India can underscore the mutual benefits of stability and humanitarian assistance, thus supporting Myanmar’s overall well-being.

Policy Recommendations

• Humanitarian Assistance: Initiate humanitarian aid in border areas to address immediate needs and build goodwill.
• Diplomatic Engagement: Maintain and leverage diplomatic relations with the military government to facilitate humanitarian efforts.
• Regional Cooperation: Collaborate with neighboring countries and engage in multilateral dialogues to address the crisis comprehensively.
• Support for Federal Dialogue: Encourage discussions on a federal structure within Myanmar to prevent Balkanization and ensure stability.

By adopting a comprehensive and balanced approach, India can play a pivotal role in addressing the humanitarian crisis in Myanmar while safeguarding its strategic interests in the region.

Conclusion

The complex situation in Myanmar demands a nuanced approach from India. On one hand, India needs to preserve its diplomatic ties with the military junta, which have been cultivated over decades. On the other hand, India must address the humanitarian crisis, which has regional implications. By balancing these aspects and engaging in multilateral dialogues, India can contribute to stabilizing Myanmar and safeguarding its national interests.

Source- The Hindu