Context

Two years after India stated that "Europe's problems are not the world’s problems," speculation about its potential role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified. Prime Minister Modi’s visits to Moscow and Kyiv, a possible meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy at the UN, and discussions with Russian President Putin at the upcoming BRICS Summit indicate a shift in India's stance. Modi’s call with U.S. President Biden post-Ukraine visit, along with National Security Adviser Doval’s conversation with Putin in St. Petersburg, further suggest that India is positioning itself as a mediator. The key question is: how far does Modi’s vision for peacemaking extend, and where can India’s influence be most effectively applied?

Overview

• An international peace summit addressing the Russo-Ukrainian War, officially called the Summit on Peace in Ukraine, was held at the Bürgenstock Resort in Switzerland on June 15–16, 2024.
• Since 2014, Russia has annexed Ukrainian regions, including the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, with further annexations occurring in 2022. The 2022 annexation created a strategic land bridge linking Crimea to Russia.

India’s Role:

• As a mediator: India has several advantages in its potential role as a mediator in the Ukraine conflict. It is one of the few countries that engages with both the West and Eurasian leaders, maintaining principles of non-alignment and strategic autonomy. The Modi government has upheld these principles through abstention votes at the UN and a refusal to follow Western sanctions, enhancing India’s reputation as an “honest broker.”
• As a voice of global south: India successfully focused its G-20 presidency on energy and food security—issues critical to developing nations—rather than just the war. This has allowed India to increase its imports of Russian oil, resulting in a six-fold rise in bilateral trade, which is framed as a principled stance rather than opportunism.
• Diplomacy of PM Modi: In his third term, Prime Minister Modi likely aims to create a global legacy similar to that of India’s first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, who mediated the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Austria and led international efforts in conflicts such as those in Korea and Vietnam.

challenges

• Thorough assessment of the war: If India decides to pursue this mediating role, it must conduct a thorough assessment of the current state of the war. Russian forces have been entrenched in about one-sixth of Ukrainian territory for over two years, while Ukrainian troops are effectively holding their ground. Any change in the status quo may require significant escalation in hostilities. President Zelenskyy’s recent attempts to occupy Russian territory in Kursk seem intended to serve as leverage in future negotiations.
• Support of west to Ukraine may lead to direct conflict between Russia and NATO: As Zelenskyy heads to New York, he seeks Western approval for long-range Storm Shadow missiles and Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) for airstrikes deep into Russia, citing Russian support from Iran and North Korea. Putin has warned that approval of these requests would be seen as a declaration of direct war between NATO and Russia.
• Election outcome in the USA: The outcome of the U.S. elections on November 5 could also significantly influence the conflict. A victory for former President Trump might lead to a reduction in U.S. support for Ukraine, a scenario favored by Putin but concerning for Ukraine and Europe. Conversely, a win for Vice President Kamala Harris would likely indicate continuity in U.S. support.

A Distinctive Proposal Required

• India’s own resolution plan: New Delhi needs to propose its own conflict resolution or de-escalation plan, given that existing proposals have been rejected by both sides. Putin dismissed the Bürgenstock Communiqué, which India also distanced itself from, while Zelenskyy rejected the recent six-point joint proposal from Brazil and China.
• Mr. Jaishankar summarized India’s position in Berlin with four key principles: this is not an era of war; battlefield solutions are inadequate; Russia must be part of the discussions; and India is committed to finding a resolution. However, these principles lack a concrete proposal, prompting the need for a more comprehensive peace strategy.
• India's role must be clarified: Zelenskyy noted that India is too significant to be merely a "messenger" between Moscow and Kyiv, especially since effective communication channels already exist, as evidenced by recent prisoner exchanges.
• India must leverage its influence: A more substantial role could involve India acting as a mediator or hosting a summit, although following its withdrawal from the Swiss Peace Summit, this task might fall to a Gulf Cooperation Council country. Regardless, India must leverage its influence, diplomatic goodwill, and resources, alongside increased engagement from officials and ministers, to focus on addressing the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Consistency is Key

• India will be assessed on the consistency of its messaging. If "dialogue and diplomacy" are viewed as the "only way forward," then the Modi government’s reluctance to engage in dialogue with Pakistan raises concerns.
• the interplay of various factors will shape New Delhi's role as a peace-maker in a conflict that has impacted Europe and the U.S. for over 30 months. As a significant global player bridging the West and East, and a member of both the Quad (Australia, India, Japan, United States) and BRICS, India is uniquely positioned.
• The timing of its involvement is crucial in a context that has seen little success. As the late Israeli negotiator Abba Eban noted, “History teaches us that men and nations only behave wisely once they have exhausted all other alternatives,” a sentiment that resonates with both the conflicts he attempted to resolve and the current situation in Ukraine.

Conclusion

India's potential as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict hinges on its unique position to engage both sides and uphold principles of non-alignment. However, it must formulate a concrete proposal and navigate internal and external challenges while ensuring consistent messaging to effectively contribute to peace efforts.

Source: The Hindu