Context-

Recent high-level meetings between Indian and Chinese officials hint at a possible shift in their bilateral relations, with discussions focusing on disengagement and easing tensions. Since the start of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's third term in June 2024, there has been a surge in diplomatic interactions. Speculation of a reset in India's approach to China has grown following the 2024 Economic Survey, which called for reconsidering restrictions on economic ties with China.

Recent Diplomatic Engagements

●     On September 12, 2024, India’s National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval met Wang Yi, China’s Foreign Minister and Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, on the sidelines of a BRICS security officials meeting in St. Petersburg. This meeting followed a series of interactions between External Affairs Minister (EAM) Dr. S. Jaishankar and Wang Yi in July and August. The two countries also convened two meetings of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC) during the same period.

●     NSA Doval, who had previously highlighted the erosion of "strategic trust" due to the military standoff in Ladakh, now emphasized the "urgency" of resolving the disengagement issues. This marks a softening of tone, signaling a possible shift in India's approach.

●     Prime Minister Modi is set to attend the annual BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, in October. While informal interactions with Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected, it remains uncertain if a formal bilateral meeting will take place.

The Complex Border Issue in Ladakh

Despite a flurry of talks, the core issue of the border dispute in eastern Ladakh remains unresolved. India has spent the past four years negotiating to persuade China to lift blockades established by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) that prevent Indian patrols from accessing six strategic points along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). These points include:

1.    Depsang Bulge

2.    Galwan Valley

3.    Kugrang River Valley (two areas)

4.    Pangong Tso Lake (north bank)

5.    Charding-Ninglung Nala area (Demchok)

China’s deployment of 50,000-60,000 troops along the LAC without prior notification in 2020, as required by a 1996 Sino-Indian agreement, surprised India and escalated tensions. India responded by moving its forces to counter the Chinese presence.

Wang Yi and Doval’s Discussions

●     The tone of the two countries' press releases following the September 12 meeting between Wang Yi and Ajit Doval differed subtly. While China emphasized the "stability and control" of the border situation, India pointed out the need for more work, stressing the urgency of complete disengagement.

●     According to a Chinese spokesperson, both officials discussed "progress made in recent consultations on border issues." However, India’s statement reiterated that further efforts were needed to stabilize and rebuild bilateral relations. Doval underscored the necessity of peace and tranquility in border areas as prerequisites for normalizing ties. Both countries agreed to "redouble efforts" to resolve the remaining issues.

Progress in Disengagement Talks

●     EAM Jaishankar has indicated that roughly 75% of the disengagement issues have been resolved, but critical points remain unresolved. These lingering challenges include the blockades at the Depsang Bulge and the Charding Nala area in Demchok.

●     On August 29, 2024, the 31st WMCC meeting in Beijing marked a quickened pace in the negotiations, occurring just a month after the 30th WMCC meeting. However, there has been no movement in the military-level talks since February 2024. The 21st round of Corps Commander-level meetings remains pending.

Historical Context: Disengagement Efforts Since 2020

●     The Ladakh border standoff began in May 2020, culminating in the Galwan Valley clash on June 15, 2020, which resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese troops. Following this, Wang Yi and Doval had a pivotal two-hour conversation on July 5, 2020, which led to both sides agreeing to withdraw 1.5 km from the clash site.

●     In July 2020, Chinese troops claimed disengagement in most areas, though blockades remained.

●     In February 2021, disengagement along the north and south banks of Pangong Tso was achieved, establishing a 10 km "no-patrolling zone."

●     In July 2022, disengagement was agreed upon in the Kugrang River Valley, with a 5 km-wide "no-patrolling zone" established near Patrol Points (PP) 15, 16, and 17A.

●     However, progress on other critical areas, such as Depsang and Demchok, remains stalled. Chinese blockades in these regions have prevented Indian patrols from accessing nearly 900 sq. km of territory.

Challenges in the Depsang Bulge

●     Depsang, one of the largest areas (around 900 sq. km) affected by Chinese blockades, has become a focal point of negotiations. During the 18th round of Corps Commander talks in April 2023, China proposed a 15-20 km "no-patrolling zone" in the area, which would primarily fall within Indian-claimed territory. India countered with a proposal for a 3-4 km zone, but this has yet to be accepted.

The Path Forward: Ensuring No Concessions

●     As negotiations continue, it is crucial for India to avoid conceding anything that would encourage further Chinese military assertiveness along the LAC. Despite progress in disengagement, the lack of movement in key areas like Depsang indicates that China may not be willing to fully resolve the situation. India's approach to resetting ties with China must ensure that no ground is ceded—militarily or diplomatically—along the contested borders.

Conclusion

While there are signs of a potential reset in India-China relations, the border issue remains a significant hurdle. Recent meetings between high-level officials from both sides signal progress, but the situation on the ground—especially in eastern Ladakh—demands cautious optimism. As India looks to engage with China diplomatically, it must remain firm in ensuring that the integrity of its territorial claims is upheld. The future of bilateral relations hinges on the resolution of these long-standing border disputes and China's willingness to engage in meaningful dialogue.

Source- Indian Express