Context-

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Ukraine from August 21-23, 2024, is a significant diplomatic event. This visit marks the first bilateral trip of an Indian Prime Minister to Ukraine, a country ravaged by war. The visit is particularly noteworthy as it comes just a month and a half after Modi’s first summit visit to Russia since 2019. The timing and context of this visit raise important questions about India's evolving role in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and its broader implications for India's foreign policy.

Why is Modi Going to Ukraine?

• Context of Modi's Visit to Russia : One of the driving factors behind PM Modi’s visit to Ukraine is the international reaction to his recent visit to Russia. The visit, which took place just before the NATO summit and was Modi's first after his re-election, drew widespread condemnation from Western nations. The U.S. Ambassador to India, Eric Garcetti, expressed strong disapproval, warning India against taking its relationship with the U.S. for granted. He emphasized that there is no such thing as "strategic autonomy" in times of global conflict.
• Ukraine's Response : Ukraine, too, responded negatively to Modi’s visit to Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed disappointment, particularly as the visit coincided with a Russian missile strike on a children's hospital in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Ambassador to India was summoned in New Delhi to discuss the issue. This backdrop of criticism and diplomatic tension sets the stage for Modi’s visit to Kyiv.
• Balancing Relations and Strategic Autonomy : Modi’s visit to Ukraine can be seen as an effort to counterbalance the perceived overemphasis on India-Russia relations. By visiting Ukraine, Modi aims to demonstrate India’s commitment to strategic autonomy—a foreign policy principle that emphasizes India’s independence in making decisions aligned with its national interests, free from external influence. The visit is also an opportunity for India to play a more proactive role in European security issues, potentially positioning itself as a mediator in the conflict.
• Support for Ukraine's Sovereignty : For Ukraine, Modi’s visit is significant as it signals India’s support for Ukrainian sovereignty. The visit is scheduled just before Ukrainian Independence Day, adding symbolic weight to the gesture. Beyond symbolism, the visit also has practical implications, such as the potential to increase bilateral trade, which stood at around $1 billion before the war. More importantly, the visit has a strong undertone of peacebuilding, with Modi expected to discuss solutions for bringing lasting peace to the conflict.

Global Interest in Peace and India's Role

• Rising Interest in Peace Negotiations : The international interest in finding a peaceful resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict is growing. One factor driving this interest is the rising domestic support in the U.S. for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, who advocates for stronger U.S. involvement in ending the conflict through a negotiated settlement.
• The Burgenstock Peace Conference : The Burgenstock peace conference held on June 16, 2024, highlighted Ukraine’s struggle to gain support from major countries in the Global South and Asia. Countries like India, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates did not sign the joint communiqué at the end of the summit, citing Russia's exclusion from the peace process as a key concern. This has led Ukraine to intensify its efforts to gain support from the Global South, with President Zelensky suggesting that the next peace conference could be held in a Global South country.
• Ukraine's Search for a Mediator : Recent diplomatic activities indicate Ukraine's search for a mediator. The visit of Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to China and the upcoming visit of PM Modi to Ukraine suggest that Kyiv is looking for a suitable mediator for negotiations with Moscow. According to Alina Hrytsenko, a chief consultant at the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Ukraine, India’s equidistant relationship with the G7, Russia, and the Global South positions it as an ideal mediator. Unlike China, which is seen as revisionist by the West and predatory by the Global South, India could attract and involve the Global South in peace efforts.

New Delhi as a Mediator

• Modi’s Discussions with President Putin : During Modi’s meeting with President Putin, it is likely that the conditions for peace and Moscow’s red lines were discussed. This suggests that Russia may welcome Modi’s visit to Ukraine. Further support for this idea can be found in paragraph 74 of the India-Russia joint statement released during Modi’s visit, which emphasized the importance of a peaceful resolution through dialogue and diplomacy, welcoming mediation efforts aligned with international law and the UN Charter.
• Challenges in Mediation : However, the prospects for successful mediation by India are limited. Previous mediation efforts, such as those brokered by Turkey and Belarus in early 2022, saw direct negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian delegates. These talks produced the Istanbul communiqué, which Ukraine did not sign due to pressure from the G7. The key stumbling block remains the fundamentally different positions held by Moscow and Kyiv. Russia seeks control over Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, along with the demilitarization of Ukraine. Kyiv, on the other hand, will not agree to any terms that involve ceding territory. Given these deep-seated differences, any effective negotiation would likely require direct involvement from the U.S. and NATO, rather than just India.

Conclusion

PM Modi’s visit to Ukraine is a significant development in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, now entering its third year. This visit underscores the limitations of India’s strategic autonomy, illustrating that India cannot remain neutral or distant in such a major global conflict. Modi's journey from Poland to Ukraine by train—a route known as "iron diplomacy"—is a symbolic act of support for Ukraine. This visit, intended to discuss peace, comes at a critical time as new dynamics emerge in the conflict, such as Ukraine’s incursions into Kursk. The outcomes of Modi’s discussions with President Zelensky will be closely watched, as they could shape the future trajectory of the conflict and India's role in it.

Source- The Indian Express