Context

The Indo-Pacific region has become a significant area of geopolitical tension, particularly due to the aggressive naval activities of China in the South China Sea (SCS). Countries with strategic interests in the region, such as the United States and its allies, are increasingly taking steps to counter the perceived threats posed by China’s military maneuvers. A notable development in this context is the formation of a new security grouping, informally known as ‘Squad’, comprising the United States, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines. This coalition aims to bolster maritime security, particularly in response to China's assertive actions against the Philippines, a key US treaty ally.

Squad, Security, and the South China Sea

The South China Sea has long been a flashpoint for geopolitical conflict, with Beijing's assertive attempts to control contested maritime areas escalating tensions. These aggressive moves have primarily targeted the Philippines, leading to frequent confrontations. The West Philippine Sea, a portion of the SCS over which the Philippines claims jurisdiction, has become a focal point for these disputes. In 2016, the Philippines sought arbitration against China’s expansive claims in the SCS, resulting in a ruling that rejected China's nine-dash line as a basis for maritime entitlement. Despite this, China's activities in the area have continued unabated, leading to physical altercations that have further strained relations.

Recently, a clash between Chinese and Philippine forces resulted in injuries and damage to Philippine vessels, prompting President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to vow stronger countermeasures against Chinese actions. This incident underscored the urgent need for enhanced maritime security cooperation. As a result, the Defense Ministers of the US, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines convened in Hawaii to discuss collective measures to safeguard maritime navigation and deter Chinese aggression. This meeting marked the formalization of the ‘Squad’ grouping, with subsequent meetings reaffirming their commitment to regional stability.

Marcos Jr.’s Strategic Shift and US Alignment

President Marcos Jr., since assuming office in 2022, has shifted the Philippines' approach towards China, aligning more closely with the United States. This realignment is evident in Manila's active participation in the US-Japan-Philippines trilateral summit held in Washington in April 2024. Furthermore, the May 2024 meeting led by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin highlighted the collective resolve of the Squad members to enhance maritime cooperation and counter Chinese obstruction in the SCS. This gathering built on the initial discussions from their first meeting in June 2023, demonstrating a sustained effort to address the security challenges posed by China.

Besides participating in the Squad, the Philippines continues to engage in other strategic alliances. These include the US-Japan-Philippines trilateral and its bilateral defense partnerships with the US and Japan. Australia's involvement, although currently limited to joint military exercises and maritime cooperation activities, signifies a broader commitment to regional security.

The Context and Role of Squad in Maritime Security

The emergence of the Squad should be viewed in light of the limitations of existing multilateral institutions like ASEAN, which have struggled to effectively address Chinese coercion. ASEAN's reluctance to openly condemn China's actions has necessitated the formation of new, more flexible frameworks for maritime security. The Squad, therefore, represents a complementary approach to strengthening security in the West Philippine Sea through a network of bilateral and trilateral arrangements.

While the Squad is a relatively new and geographically focused entity, its creation is part of a broader trend of minilateralism in the Indo-Pacific. Minilateral groupings like the Squad and the existing Quad (comprising the US, Japan, India, and Australia) reflect the need for specific, targeted collaborations based on shared security concerns and strategic interests. Unlike the broader Quad, which addresses a wide range of Indo-Pacific security issues, the Squad concentrates on the immediate challenges in the SCS, particularly the West Philippine Sea.

Minilateralism and the Logic of Maritime Security

The rise of minilateral groupings like the Squad can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, the vast and diverse maritime geography of the Indo-Pacific necessitates specialized focus on specific sub-regions. Countries naturally prioritize areas that directly impact their security and economic interests. For instance, the US focuses primarily on the Pacific, while India prioritizes the Indian Ocean. The Philippines, facing direct threats in the SCS, has a vested interest in securing its immediate maritime periphery.

Secondly, minilateral groupings allow for more cohesive and committed cooperation among a smaller number of players. These groups can align more easily on shared threats and objectives, facilitating effective collaboration. The Squad, involving security treaty partners of the US, exemplifies this principle, with each member having a direct stake in countering Chinese aggression in the SCS.

Minilateralism also offers strategic advantages for smaller and developing countries, enabling them to enhance their security without becoming entangled in broader great-power rivalries. By focusing on specific regional challenges, these countries can develop tailored security architectures that address their unique needs and circumstances.

Conclusion

The formation of the Squad underscores the evolving nature of security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. As multilateral institutions like ASEAN struggle to address regional security threats, minilateral groupings offer a viable alternative for countries seeking to bolster their maritime defenses. The rise of such configurations reflects the diverse and complex strategic environment of the Indo-Pacific, where nations must navigate a web of alliances and partnerships to safeguard their interests.

The Squad, with its focused mandate and shared threat perceptions, provides a model for how smaller groupings can effectively address specific regional security challenges. This approach not only enhances the security of its members but also contributes to the broader stability of the Indo-Pacific region. As geopolitical contests continue to unfold, the role of minilateralism in shaping regional security dynamics will likely become increasingly significant.

Source - ORF