Context:

The recent escalation of tensions between Iran and Pakistan has brought to light the complex historical, geopolitical, and sectarian dynamics that have influenced their relationship since the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran. The latest developments, involving missile and drone strikes on alleged militant bases, have raised concerns about the stability of the region. 

What is the current escalation ?

On January 16, Iran carried out a missile and drone assault on Pakistani territory targeting the Sunni extremist group Jaish al-Adl. The attack, perceived by Pakistan as unprovoked and unexpected, marked a significant escalation. In response, Pakistan initially downgraded diplomatic ties and canceled bilateral visits. However, on January 18, Pakistan conducted counter-strikes in Iran, targeting purported camps of Baloch separatists. The situation now awaits Iran's response, with observers keenly watching to see whether Iran will escalate further or choose to de-escalate.

Pre-1979 Relations and Alliances:

Before the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, both Iran and Pakistan were staunch allies of the United States. Their alliance was cemented in the Baghdad Pact, later known as CENTO, a military alliance modeled on NATO. Iran provided material and weapons support to Pakistan during its wars with India in 1965 and 1971. The Shah of Iran, at that time, expressed strong support for the integrity of Pakistan after the liberation of Bangladesh.

Post-1979 Dynamics:

The dynamics between Iran and Pakistan underwent a significant transformation after the Islamic Revolution. Iran, under the ultra-conservative Shiite regime of Ayatollah Khomeini, found itself at odds with Sunni-majority Pakistan, especially as Pakistan underwent its own Islamization under military dictator Gen Zia-ul-Haq. The sectarian divide deepened, and the geopolitical landscape saw differences emerge.

Iran's shift from a U.S. ally to an enemy post-1979 led to increased closeness between the U.S. and Pakistan, especially during the post-9/11 "War on Terror." Iran's focus on exporting the revolution raised concerns among its Arab neighbors, complicating Pakistan's relationships with its Sunni Arab allies. Additionally, both nations found themselves on opposing sides in Afghanistan after the Soviet withdrawal, with Iran supporting the Northern Alliance against the Taliban, a group initially fostered by Pakistan.

Attempts at Reconciliation:

Despite the historical divergence, attempts at reconciliation have been made over the years. In 1995, Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto visited Tehran, emphasizing the friendship between the two nations. Cooperation in trade and energy was initiated, but the relationship saw setbacks under the military rule of Gen Pervez Musharraf. It wasn't until the return of the Pakistan People’s Party to power in 2008 that efforts to improve ties resumed.

The subsequent administration, led by President Asif Ali Zardari, aimed to strengthen ties with Iran, focusing on trade and energy cooperation. The Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project was approved in 2013, symbolizing a thaw in relations. However, the pendulum swung again when Nawaz Sharif came to power in 2013, leaning towards Saudi Arabia and other Arab allies, leaving the pipeline project incomplete.

Balochistan and the Common Challenge:

The recent conflict has brought attention to the shared challenge of the Baloch insurgency that spans both Iran and Pakistan. The Baloch, residing on both sides of the Iran-Pakistan border, share cultural, ethnic, linguistic, and religious ties that transcend geopolitical boundaries. Baloch nationalism, rooted in the early 20th century, stems from their marginalization in both countries, leading to separatist movements and aspirations for a "Greater Balochistan."

In both Iran and Pakistan, the Baloch face economic challenges despite the rich natural resources in their homeland. Massive investments, such as China’s Belt and Road initiative, have failed to uplift their living conditions. The insurgents, operating on both sides of the border, target military and civilian installations, adding complexity to the Iran-Pakistan relationship. The recent strikes by both nations targeted different militant groups operating in their respective territories.

India’s Stake and Perspective:

India's relationship with Iran has evolved significantly over the years. Despite U.S. sanctions on Iran, India has collaborated with Iran in the energy sector, and the Chabahar port project, in particular, has been a focal point. India's involvement in Chabahar has raised concerns in Pakistan, especially as it competes with the China-funded Gwadar port in Pakistan.

India's Ministry of External Affairs, while describing the recent strikes as a matter between Iran and Pakistan, emphasized its "uncompromising position of zero tolerance towards terrorism." Strategic affairs experts in India argue that Iran's claims of harboring terrorists echo India's stance, especially considering Iran's actions as a form of self-defense. The geopolitical implications are significant, with the Baloch insurgency and the Iran-Pakistan conflict creating ripples in India's strategic calculations.

Conclusion and Future Prospects:

As tensions rise between Iran and Pakistan, both nations are unlikely to seek further escalation. Pakistan, grappling with economic challenges, concerns about India, and a volatile border with Afghanistan, considers Iran its relatively least hostile neighbor. Iran, preoccupied with regional issues such as supporting the Houthi rebels and dealing with proxy conflicts, has limited bandwidth for a prolonged conflict with Pakistan.

The recent strikes, though alarming, are seen as warning shots to deter external actors from destabilizing their territories. Both nations may now look to de-escalate, having made their statements. The Baloch insurgency remains a common challenge that requires cooperation rather than confrontation. The international community, particularly neighboring countries, should play a role in facilitating dialogue and finding joint solutions to address the root causes of the conflict.

Iran-Pakistan relationship is a complex interplay of historical alliances, sectarian dynamics, and geopolitical shifts. The recent events underscore the need for both nations to navigate their shared challenges with a focus on dialogue and cooperation, recognizing the importance of regional stability in the face of common threats.