India’s foreign policy reflects a complex balancing act between its long-standing ties with Russia and the deepening strategic partnership with the United States. This nuanced approach highlights India’s aspiration for strategic autonomy and its growing role as a pivotal player in global geopolitics. Defense Minister Rajnath Singh's recent remarks at the 21st session of the India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission on Military and Military Cooperation (IRIGC-M&MTC) in Moscow reaffirmed New Delhi's commitment to deepening ties with Russia, despite mounting Western pressures.

Importance of India-Russia Ties

Areas of Collaboration

1.    High-Tech Supplies

o    Russia remains India’s most accommodating partner in providing high-tech supplies, including dual-use technologies crucial for India’s strategic defense capabilities.

o    Despite growing openness from Western nations like France and the U.S., Russia continues to be a reliable source for fulfilling India’s long-range and undersea technology needs.

2.    Co-Development and Strategic Interests

o    Collaborative defense projects like the BrahMos missile showcase the deep ties between India and Russia.

o    India plays a pivotal role in facilitating the export of Russian-origin technologies, such as BrahMos, to countries like the Philippines, vital for countering China's growing influence and preserving the rules-based order.

Broader Implications

The India-Russia relationship offers critical global benefits:

• Bridge to Global Multilateralism: India’s commitment to multilateralism ensures Russia remains engaged in the global system, despite its tensions with the West. India bridges disparate geopolitical systems, encouraging cooperation and integration.
• Moderating Russia-China Dynamics: India’s partnership with Russia helps avoid Moscow’s total alignment with China, ensuring a balanced geopolitical relationship and preventing a Russia-China axis that could destabilize the global order.

Five Key Contributions of the India-Russia Relationship

1.    Anchoring Russia to Global Multilateralism

o    India’s strong stance on multilateralism ensures Russia remains engaged with the broader international system, countering attempts to isolate it.

o    By connecting isolated geopolitical players, India creates a platform for cooperation and integration.

2.    Balancing Russia-China Dynamics

o    India’s relationship with Russia offers Moscow a partnership of equals, countering China’s dominant position.

o    This balance helps prevent a full Russia-China alignment, which could destabilize the global order and challenge the West.

o    Russia’s priority to avoid subordination to China is evident in platforms like BRICS, where Moscow values India’s moderating influence.

3.    Energy Trade and Global Price Stability

o    India’s purchase of Russian fossil fuels, compliant with international sanctions, helps stabilize global energy prices.

o    This relationship contributes to price predictability, assisting Europe and the West in avoiding political and economic instability.

4.    Strategic Presence in the Arctic

o    India’s collaboration with Russia in the Arctic region offers alternatives to a China-dominated governance structure.

o    Projects like the Chennai-Vladivostok corridor highlight efforts to enhance regional connectivity and governance.

o    India’s increasing presence in the Arctic ensures ecological sustainability and security for global supply chains.

5.    Moderating Multilateral Groupings

o    India’s leadership in multilateral groupings like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) ensures these platforms are not weaponized against the West.

o    India’s approach, as noted by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, reflects India’s stance as “non-Western, not anti-Western,” allowing for a balanced diplomatic approach.

o    The inclusion of moderate nations like UAE, Egypt, and Vietnam in BRICS further strengthens India’s role as a stabilizing force.

Declining Defense Imports from Russia

Historical Context: For decades, Russia was India’s primary defense supplier, with cost advantages, reliability, and geopolitical alignment during the Cold War making Russia the preferred choice.

Recent Trends and Data

In recent years, India has reduced its dependency on Russian defense imports:

• 2009–2013: Russia supplied 76% of India’s arms imports.
• 2014–2018: Declined to 58%.
• 2019–2023: Further reduced to 34%.

Reasons for Decline

1.    Russian Defense Industry Challenges

o    Economic sanctions and domestic constraints have significantly weakened Russia’s global arms export market, with a 53% decline in exports between 2014–2018 and 2019–2023.

2.    India’s Self-Reliance Drive

o    The Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative has shifted India’s focus towards domestic defense manufacturing.

o    India aims to boost defense exports, reduce reliance on foreign suppliers, and enhance its own technological capabilities.

Energy Partnership with Russia

Pre-War Dynamics

Before 2021, Russia was a negligible player in India’s energy imports, contributing only 2% to India’s crude oil purchases.

Post-War Surge in Oil Imports

India’s crude oil imports from Russia surged dramatically, reaching nearly 40% by 2023, driven by:

• Deep Discounts: Russia offered oil at rates 9–14% lower than other suppliers, making it attractive to India’s cost-conscious energy strategy.
• Geopolitical Pragmatism: Despite Western disapproval, India prioritized economic security over geopolitical pressures.

Recent Shifts in Energy Strategy

• Return to Traditional Suppliers: As Russian discounts narrowed and transport costs rose, India began diversifying its crude imports back to Gulf countries.
• Increased U.S. Oil Imports: By 2024, the U.S. doubled its share in India’s crude oil market. In August 2024, India imported over $1 billion worth of U.S. oil.

Navigating Western Pressures

U.S. Concerns and Actions

The United States has raised concerns over India’s close ties with Russia, particularly in defense and energy:

1.    Defense and Energy Sanctions

o    Sanctions under CAATSA targeted India’s purchase of the S-400 air defense system from Russia.

o    Nineteen Indian firms faced sanctions for alleged involvement in Russia’s military supply chain.

2.    Oil Trade Criticism

o    U.S. officials criticized India’s large-scale purchase of discounted Russian oil and threatened “consequences”, though they did not impose red lines on oil imports.

India’s Sovereign Stance

India has consistently asserted its strategic autonomy and right to determine its foreign and energy policies independently:

• Economic Pragmatism: India prioritizes low-cost energy imports to meet its growing domestic energy demands and developmental needs.
• Sovereign Decisions: India emphasizes its sovereignty and resists pressure to disengage from Russia.

Strengthening U.S.-India Relations

To manage the complexities of India-Russia relations, the U.S. must adopt a nuanced approach:

1.    Respect for Sovereignty

o    Pressuring India to sever ties with Russia risks damaging U.S.-India relations, undermining the trust and cooperation between the two nations.

2.    Encouraging Mediation

o    India’s potential role in mediating the Ukraine crisis presents an opportunity for constructive engagement between the U.S. and India.

3.    Focusing on Common Goals

o    The U.S. and India share mutual interests in the Indo-Pacific region, countering China’s rise, and enhancing economic and technological collaboration, all of which should be emphasized in their partnership.

Conclusion

India’s foreign policy reflects a deliberate effort to balance its historical ties with Russia and its strategic alignment with the United States. The decline in Russian defense imports, the diversification of energy sources, and the focus on indigenous defense production underscore India’s evolution into a self-reliant and pragmatic global player. For long-term stability, it is crucial for the U.S. to respect India’s unique geopolitical position and foster a relationship that strengthens shared strategic goals while honoring India's sovereignty.

This strategic balancing is vital for global peace and stability, and the future trajectory of the India-Russia relationship will remain crucial in shaping the geopolitical landscape of 2025 and beyond.