India's Leadership Role: Re-evaluating the 2-Degree Celsius Goal : Daily News Analysis

Date : 25/07/2023

Relevance: GS Paper 3; Environmental Conservation and Climate Change

Keywords: Paris Agreement, 2-Degree Celsius Target, Earth System Models, India's Leadership

Context-

The Paris Agreement's target of limiting global surface warming to 2 degrees Celsius by 2100 has been hailed as a significant milestone. However, after decades of negotiations, global carbon emissions show no signs of slowing down.
Moreover, the 2-degree Celsius target lacks scientific backing, having originated from a round number deemed appealing by some politicians. Amidst the hype around the 1.5-degree Celsius warming threshold, it is essential to temper alarmist messaging and focus on actionable climate solutions.

Questionable Target and Scientific Basis:

The target agreed to in the Paris Agreement, to keep the planet’s surface from warming by 2 degrees Celsius by the end of this century, has been touted as a monumental achievement, and it may well be if we actually manage to achieve this goal by 2100. But we must bear two things in mind.
Despite negotiations among the representatives of the world’s countries for more than two decades, global carbon emissions have shown no signs of slowing down.
The 2-degree Celsius target was not derived scientifically; instead, it was chosen for its simplicity and appeal. The economics Nobel laureate William Nordhaus cautiously noted in the 1970s that a warming of 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level could render the planet warmer than it has ever been in several hundred-thousand years.
Despite being part of the Paris Agreement, carbon emissions have not significantly decreased, raising doubts about achieving the goal. The climate community must recognize that the target's attainment is far from assured, and continuous alarmist messaging may exacerbate climate anxiety and hinder constructive action.

Limitations of Earth System Models (ESMs):

ESMs, the tools used for climate projections, face challenges in accurately reproducing the consequences of 2 degrees Celsius warming at a regional scale like the Indian subcontinent. The uncertainties in climate projections are largely due to ESM deficiencies.
Current projections cannot reliably distinguish between the impacts of 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius warming, making it challenging to inform climate adaptation policies effectively.

Uncertainties and Tough Choices:

The COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical events have demonstrated the unpredictability of socioeconomic and geopolitical factors that influence climate change mitigation efforts.
The uncertainties in population projections and technological promises further complicate the climate crisis.
Developing countries like India must confront tough choices and develop their own tools to assess local impacts and formulate effective adaptation plans.

India's Leadership Role:

India should continue its leadership role by demanding improved projections that quantify climate impacts at local scales.
The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the global community must be prepared to enhance climate projections to address local challenges effectively. India should track climate change and its consequences continuously on a socially relevant timescale to make informed decisions.

Focus on Decarbonization:

Efforts to reduce emissions have largely failed; therefore, decarbonizing the system presents a more promising solution.
India can seize opportunities for economic growth by focusing on green technologies and promoting decarbonization. Prioritizing non-market goods such as equity, well-being, and biodiversity will be crucial in the country's climate action.

Conclusion:

India's approach to climate targets should be based on robust scientific foundations and pragmatic considerations. Rather than fixating on arbitrary targets, the focus should be on actionable steps to mitigate climate change and foster sustainability. As a leader in climate diplomacy, India should advocate for better climate projections and continue its efforts toward decarbonization to ensure a sustainable future.

India's Initiatives towards Climate Change

INDC (India Nationally Determined Contribution)

Reforms in Transport Sector: Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid &) Electric Vehicles Scheme: India is proactively promoting the adoption and manufacturing of electric and hybrid vehicles. This scheme offers various incentives and subsidies to manufacturers and buyers to accelerate the transition towards cleaner mobility options. By encouraging the use of electric vehicles, India aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and combat air pollution.
Voluntary Vehicle Scrapping Policy: India has introduced a voluntary vehicle scrapping policy to retire old and unfit vehicles from the roads. This policy incentivizes vehicle owners to scrap their old vehicles and replace them with newer, more fuel-efficient, and environment-friendly models. By removing old vehicles with higher emissions, the country aims to improve air quality and reduce carbon emissions.
India's Support to EVs: Backing the global EV30@30 campaign: India is a proud supporter of the global EV30@30 campaign, which aims to achieve at least 30% of new vehicle sales being electric by the year 2030. By aligning with this international effort, India showcases its commitment to promoting electric mobility and reducing the carbon footprint of its transportation sector.
Advocacy of five elements for climate change "Panchamrit": During the UNFCCC COP26 in Glasgow, India emphasized its five-point framework "Panchamrit" for addressing climate change. The framework includes a comprehensive approach to tackle climate-related challenges, including sustainable transportation solutions that prioritize electric and green mobility.
Role of Government Schemes: Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana: Through this flagship scheme, the Indian government has provided clean cooking fuel in the form of LPG connections to over 88 million households. By facilitating the shift from traditional coal-based cooking fuels to LPG, this initiative has not only improved indoor air quality but has also reduced carbon emissions, contributing to the nation's climate change mitigation efforts.
Role of Industries in Low-Carbon Transition: Public and private sectors actively contributing: Both public and private industries in India are actively participating in addressing the climate challenge. Driven by increasing customer and investor awareness about sustainability, and supported by growing regulatory requirements, industries are adopting greener practices, investing in renewable energy sources, and implementing energy-efficient technologies to reduce their carbon footprint.
Hydrogen Energy Mission: Focus on generating hydrogen from green power resources: India's Hydrogen Energy Mission is centered around producing hydrogen using renewable energy sources like solar and wind power. Green hydrogen has the potential to serve as a clean and sustainable alternative to conventional fossil fuels, reducing carbon emissions and promoting a greener energy landscape.
Perform, Achieve, and Trade (PAT): Market-based mechanism incentivizing energy efficiency: The Perform, Achieve, and Trade (PAT) scheme is designed to encourage energy-intensive industries to improve their energy efficiency. Industries that achieve energy efficiency targets are rewarded with tradable energy-saving certificates, while those falling short can purchase certificates from those who have exceeded their targets.
International Solar Alliance: ISA is a global alliance being initiated by India as well as headquartered in India, with France as a partner country. It is aimed at promoting research to develop more efficient, low-cost solutions to the global energy requirements, by leveraging advanced technology as well as providing incentives and regulation of solar power.
Climate Transparency Report: Amongst the G20 members, India is the only country to have consistently fared at the top in the Climate transparency report, with Indian actions being consistent with the goal of not allowing the global temperature to cross 2 degrees C of the pre-industrial levels.

Probable Questions for UPSC Main Exam-

The Paris Agreement's 2-degree Celsius target has been widely discussed and debated in the context of climate change. Analyze the scientific basis and limitations of this target, and discuss its relevance for India's climate action. How can India play a leadership role in addressing the uncertainties associated with climate projections and align its efforts toward effective climate solutions? (10 Marks,150 Words)
What are the limitations of Earth System Models (ESMs) in the context of climate projections and their implications for India? (15 Marks,250 Words)

Source : The Hindu