Date : 25/09/2023

Relevance: GS Paper 2- International Relations

Keywords: Abraham Accord, I2U2, IMEEC, International North-South Transport Corridor

Context-

Recent geopolitical developments in West Asia, particularly those involving the United States, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and India, offer insights into the evolving dynamics of this crucial region. As the U.S. navigates its foreign policy in the face of growing challenges, it seeks to secure its interests and influence in West Asia, while concurrently addressing the emergence of China as a significant player in the region. This article delves into the two-part strategy of President Joe Biden's administration and its implications for India.

The U.S. Strategy for West Asia

1. The Continuation of Trump-era Policies: President Biden's West Asia strategy builds upon the foundation laid during the Trump administration. This entails fostering closer ties between two key allies in the region—the Gulf Arab states and Israel—to address shared challenges, notably Iran's ascendancy. The Abraham Accords reached under Mr. Trump’s tutelage set the stage for the transformation of Israel’s ties with the United Arab Emirates. But the true potential of this policy would not be reached unless there is a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia, arguably the most influential Arab country today.

Central to this strategy is the potential for a groundbreaking normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel. This move, if realized, would not only transform Arab-Israeli relations but also bolster the United States' position in West Asia without necessitating additional military commitments.

2. Reassurance to Allies: The second part of Mr. Biden’s approach is to reassure America’s friends and allies that the U.S. is not exiting West Asia. In 2012, leaders of India, Israel, the U.S., and the UAE held a virtual summit of what is now called the I2U2 minilateral. The idea behind I2U2 is to create a new platform that could expedite economic integration between West Asia and South Asia and offer economic and technological solutions to the problems faced by the Global South. This reassurance is essential as the U.S. deprioritizes the region in favor of addressing security challenges in Eastern Europe and East Asia. The U.S. may not want to exit West Asia, but it has deprioritized the region in terms of its security commitments as its focus has shifted back to Eastern Europe and East Asia. But the U.S.’s deprioritisation of the region does not diminish the strategic value or potential of West Asia. As the U.S. is pivoting to East Asia, China, which is dependent on imports for over 70% of its oil requirements, is enhancing its focus on West Asia.

3. The India-Middle East-Europe Corridor:

A significant development in this regard is the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor, unveiled at the G-20 summit. This ambitious project aims to establish an economic corridor from India's western coast through the Gulf, Jordan, Israel, and into the Mediterranean, thereby enhancing India's presence and strengthening U.S. influence in the region.

The China Factor:

1. China's Expanding Presence:

• As the U.S. shifts its focus, China is increasingly expanding its footprint in West Asia, particularly in terms of trade, investments, and a newfound role as a peacemaker in conflicts such as the Iran-Saudi reconciliation agreement.

2. U.S. Response:

• Recognizing the strategic importance of West Asia, the U.S. is attempting to counter China's growing influence by bolstering alliances and bringing India into the fold as a stable partner in shaping the region's economic and geopolitical landscape.

Challenges and Uncertainties:

• The U.S. deprioritizing West Asia has allowed regional powers to assert more autonomy in their foreign policies. This is evident in the Saudi-UAE detente with Iran, the end of the Saudi-led blockade of Qatar, and Arab reconciliation with Syria's Bashar al-Assad. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are also pursuing policies independent of U.S. goals, even joining the BRICS grouping. While they may welcome America's diplomatic efforts, they are less likely to remain client states as in the past.
• Furthermore, the Biden administration still views Iran as a hostile power, and the Iran-Israel rivalry remains a central geopolitical challenge in West Asia. The Gulf Arab states seek to avoid being entangled in this rivalry, as it could lead to regional instability, potentially undermining America's aspiration to maintain a benevolent great power role in the region.

India's Multi-Engagement Approach:

1. Avenues for India:

• India, amid the U.S.-China competition in West Asia, finds new opportunities for engagement. The U.S. values India's size, economic potential, and historical ties to the region, considering it a vital partner in shaping West Asia's geopolitics. India should embrace this opportunity but avoid viewing it as another Cold War scenario or relying solely on one strategy, as seen in Afghanistan. It's already part of the International North-South Transport Corridor connecting India to Russia via Iran and Central Asia. The "Middle East Corridor" offers another economic avenue. India's approach should prioritize multi-engagement, rather than appeasing or containing any single great power.

2. Multi-Engagement Strategy:

• India should embrace these opportunities while maintaining a multi-engagement strategy that does not overly align with any great power rivalry. India can play a significant geopolitical role in West Asia without compromising its traditional balancing act.

Challenges for India:

• Arab-Israeli Relations: The Abraham Accords, a significant breakthrough, have improved Israel's relations with some Arab nations. However, broader regional acceptance remains elusive. The Israel-Palestine conflict continues to be a major concern at the grassroots level.
• Internal Arab Conflicts: Ongoing conflicts, such as the Shia-Sunni tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia, have far-reaching implications and affect countries like Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Somalia's state system breakdown has led to unpleasant issues for India along its coast.
• Yemen's Maritime Concerns: In Yemen, the ongoing Shia-Sunni strife could potentially spill over into crucial maritime routes, including the Red Sea, Bab-El-Mandeb, and the Gulf of Aden. Cooperation between the UAE, Israel, and the U.S. becomes vital for ensuring maritime security.
• Possible Regional Split: Internal conflicts in the Arab world may lead to a division, where Iran aligns with one group, while India, Israel, the USA, and UAE find themselves on the other side.
• China's Influence: China has been expanding its presence in the Middle East. Notably, Iran has become reliant on China as its largest trading partner. In March 2021, China agreed to invest a massive $400 billion in Iran over 25 years in exchange for a steady supply of oil. Furthermore, China is establishing a security and military partnership with Iran.
• Chinese Investments in Israel: China has made significant investments in Israel, including the expansion of the Haifa port with an investment of over one and a half billion dollars. China is also involved in the construction of the Ashdod port, which is Israel's only port on the Mediterranean. This development is of concern to India and Israel, given their strategic alliance and China's growing influence.
• UAE's Tech Partnership with China: The UAE was among the first countries to enlist Huawei, a Chinese multinational corporation, for its 5G project. This partnership raises questions about China's influence in the region.

Way Forward

• Seizing the Opportunity: The new QUAD, Abraham Accord, and IMEEC in West Asia presents a win-win opportunity for all involved countries, with India needing to play a more active role in the region. The growing political and economic instability in West Asia underscores the significance of India's engagement.
• Navigating Carefully: India must navigate this complex region cautiously, given its vital interests in energy security, food security, trade, investment, workers' welfare, and maritime security.
• Reassuring Key Partners: Two countries, Iran and Egypt, require reassurance that this new arrangement does not target them. India should affirm its commitment to the North-South corridor, despite challenges due to the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and China's growing influence.

• Iran: India's engagement with Iran is crucial, especially in light of developments in Afghanistan. Diplomatic and strategic efforts are needed to address the challenges in the region.
• Egypt: Egypt, with its strategic position in the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, must be assured that the connectivity corridor and maritime security arrangements will not affect its interests economically or politically.

• Mutual Cooperation: The four nations—India, UAE, USA, and Israel—should identify areas of mutual interest, including health, science and technology, infrastructure, and maritime security. India can potentially serve as a stable workforce supplier, as some U.S. companies explore relocating their operations from China to India. This collaboration could combine India's workforce, UAE's capital, and the technological and skilled manpower from the U.S. and Israel to create synergies in productive endeavors.

Conclusion:

As the great power contest in West Asia unfolds, India stands at a crucial juncture, with the chance to leverage its position to contribute positively to regional stability and development. Navigating this complex landscape will require a nuanced and flexible approach that allows India to harness the benefits of multi-engagement while safeguarding its strategic interests.

Source - ORF/ The Indian Express