Context-

India’s foreign policy, often scrutinized through its implementation in the Indo-Pacific region, reflects a blend of traditional cultural influence and new economic imperatives following economic liberalization. However, the Indo-Pacific's prominence might overshadow other critical regions in India’s "extended neighborhood," such as Central Asia, which holds strategic importance for India’s security. Recent developments, particularly following the American troops' withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, underscore India's augmented political engagement in Central Asia.

Central Asia's Strategic Importance

• India’s Enhanced Engagement: Central Asia, comprising Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, has witnessed increased political engagement from India. The heightened interest is evidenced by the India-Central Asia Dialogue and the First India-Central Asia Summit in 2022. This strategic engagement is driven by security concerns following the geopolitical shifts post-Afghanistan withdrawal and aims to solidify India’s presence in this resource-rich region.
• The “Spaghetti Bowl” of Political Structures: The term “spaghetti bowl,” coined by Indian-born Columbia University Professor Jagdish Bhagwati in 1995 to describe the complex framework of US preferential trading arrangements, aptly characterizes the current political and economic landscape of Central Asia. The region is marked by numerous overlapping formats, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and Organization of Turkic States (OTS). However, no single mechanism unites the five Central Asian states as a cohesive political entity, reflecting the enduring interest of major powers in the region’s strategic role as a source of energy resources, transit routes, and cultural hub.

Political Dynamics and Multilateral Engagement

• Russia’s Influence and Security Focus: Russia perceives Central Asia as a natural sphere of influence, underscored by the 2023 Concept of Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation, which highlights the region's strategic role in regional integration and collective security. The CIS is deemed paramount for Russia’s security, stability, and territorial integrity. This policy document also emphasizes expanding trade, investment, and technological ties with India, signaling a multi-faceted partnership.
• India’s Role in the SCO: Russia advocates for strengthening the SCO's influence by expanding its membership and broadening its agenda. Despite China’s initial reluctance, Russia supported the inclusion of India (and Pakistan) in the SCO in 2017. While Russia views the SCO primarily as a security platform, India sees it as a means to maintain a political presence in Eurasia. This divergence arises from India’s political confrontations with China and Pakistan, which limit its maneuverability within the SCO. Nevertheless, the SCO remains a crucial dialogue platform for both nations, despite challenges such as the potential inefficacy of the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) due to Indo-Pakistani disagreements.
• China’s Economic Ambitions: China's approach to the SCO is largely economic, seeking to extend its influence in Central Asia. However, both India and Russia prioritize security concerns within the SCO. The inclusion of Iran as the ninth member of the SCO could shift this dynamic, potentially broadening the organization’s economic focus, especially regarding infrastructure projects like the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).

Economic Cooperation: EAEU( Eurasian Economic Union) and INSTC

●     Russia’s “Greater Eurasian” Partnership: Russia’s “Greater Eurasian” partnership, though somewhat vague in its implementation mechanisms, aims to transform Eurasia into a cohesive intercontinental realm characterized by peace, stability, mutual trust, development, and prosperity. This vision primarily pursues economic objectives, advocating for a network of free trade zones and international trade-economic alliances.

●     Trade and Economic Collaboration: In trade matters, Russia and India converge on two main points: collaboration within the EAEU framework and the development of the INSTC. India’s trade policy, characterized by protectionism, poses challenges, yet a reduction in import duties through an FTA with the EAEU could enhance Russian exports of chemical products, sunflower oil, and coal, while boosting Indian exports of pharmaceuticals, agricultural products, leather goods, machinery, and textiles.

Practical Realities and Challenges

• Negotiation Delays and Trade Deficit: Despite high expectations, practical realities temper the potential for enhanced economic cooperation. International pressures could delay negotiations, and the Indian business community’s apprehensions might further complicate matters. The trade deficit is likely to increase, and inefficiencies in existing trade and logistical routes need addressing. The sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipeline in 2022 underscored the vulnerability of critical transport infrastructure, necessitating improved security measures.
• INSTC as a Strategic Corridor: The INSTC holds promise as a strategic corridor, potentially reducing delivery times and transportation costs by 30-40 percent, offering an alternative to the Suez Canal. Politically, Russia aims to sideline non-regional actors in the Caspian region and counterbalance competing projects like the Middle Corridor (TMTM) and TRACECA (Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia), offsetting China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

The Role of India-Russia Relations in Central Asia

• High-Echelon Cooperation: Currently, India-Russia cooperation in Central Asia is characterized as “high-echelon,” focusing on multilateral engagements rather than joint economic projects. This reflects a broader geopolitical strategy where both nations seek to leverage multilateral platforms like the SCO and EAEU to advance their interests.
• Potential for Deeper Economic Ties: Despite limited joint economic initiatives, there is potential for deeper India-Russia economic ties in Central Asia. The INSTC's development, alongside an FTA with the EAEU, could catalyze broader economic cooperation, enhancing trade volumes and logistical efficiency. After the Ukrainian conflict, the interest in the projects remained unabated, displayed by the visit of India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar to Iran this January and Russia’s signing of some tangible agreements with the Islamic Republic.
• India as a Counterweight to China: India's growing role in Central Asia is viewed with optimism by Russia, particularly in the context of providing a counterbalance to China’s economic expansion. While India's involvement in the QUAD raises some reservations, its strategic partnership within the SCO and broader Eurasian initiatives is recognized as crucial. The deepening political ties between India and Central Asian nations, though often overlooked by Russian elites, highlight India's potential to strengthen its economic and trade foothold in the region.

Conclusion

India’s foreign policy in Central Asia is marked by strategic engagement driven by security concerns and economic imperatives. The complex political and economic landscape, characterized by numerous multilateral formats, reflects the region's strategic importance to major powers like Russia and China. India’s involvement in Central Asia, particularly through mechanisms like the SCO and INSTC, underscores its commitment to enhancing its presence in this pivotal region. While challenges remain, the potential for deeper economic ties and strategic cooperation offers a promising avenue for India’s sustained engagement in Central Asia, positioning it as a key player in the evolving geopolitical dynamics of the region.

Source- ORF