India's Complex Policy Towards Myanmar: India's Balancing Act : Daily News Analysis

Date : 11/08/2023

Relevance: GS Paper 2 - Bilateral Relations

Keywords: Junta Government, 'Five-Point Consensus', Democracy, Act East Policy

Context -

In a pivotal moment for Myanmar's ongoing crisis, Acting President Myint Swe extended the 'emergency' for another six months, disregarding the 2008 Constitution.
Simultaneously, the military regime released political prisoners and reduced sentences for Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and former President Win Myint. While these developments have occurred, they don't necessarily mark a transition toward a democratic and peaceful Myanmar.

The Prolonged Emergency and Democratic Elections

The extension of the 'emergency' disrupts the timeline for the military-proposed elections. The coup orchestrator, Min Aung Hlaing, defended the extension, citing the lack of 'normalcy' in many regions. Paradoxically, this pursuit of 'normalcy' has contributed to extensive suffering. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) reveals that Myanmar's civilians experience 2.5 times more violence than those in Afghanistan.
The military's relentless campaign involves an alarming average of over 30 airstrikes per month in 2023. Surprisingly, the Tatmadaw (Myanmar's military) maintains true control over only 30%-40% of the territory, as confirmed by both the Burmese military and the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar (SAC-M). An election conducted under such conditions would further erode credibility, especially if limited to a minority of the country.
Furthermore, the internal reshuffling within the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) raises concerns about the junta's commitment to democracy. The exclusion of smaller parties through new party registration laws, combined with the National League for Democracy's decision to abstain from the new elections, leaves the USDP with virtually no opposition. Myanmar's constitutional structure also affords the military a de facto veto in the parliamentary process.

The Dilemma of Ms. Suu Kyi's Role

The junta's decision to reduce Aung San Suu Kyi's sentence and shift her from prison has perplexed observers. However, this move doesn't necessarily signify progress toward democracy. Despite her status as the Tatmadaw's primary rival, Suu Kyi has displayed a willingness to cooperate with the military.
She remains a crucial figure for political change in Myanmar, even amid international criticism over her stance on the Rohingya persecution. Her return could potentially fracture the National Unity Government (NUG)-led resistance, which has been collaborating with ethnic armed organizations and striving for reconciliation, including with the Rohingyas.

Symbolic Gestures and India's Balancing Act

The junta's symbolic gestures might quell some protests and offer a basis for the military to claim progress, potentially leading to the lifting of sanctions and renewed economic opportunities. These gestures also provide a political front for engagement with the junta, as seen in India's case.
India initially demonstrated proactive engagement by providing food and vaccine aid during the early stages of the pandemic and the coup. However, concerns about violence in Manipur and issues related to trafficking and drug smuggling led to shifts in India's stance. While supporting the Association of Southeast Asian Nations 'Five-Point Consensus' and addressing border stability with Myanmar, India's policy presents a paradox.

India's Balancing Act: Democracy, Security, and Regional Dynamics

India's official commitment to democracy in Myanmar contrasts with its policy influenced by security concerns in northeastern India and its strategic relationship with China. Initiatives like the Sairang-Hmawngbuchhuah railway project, part of India's Act East Policy, are aimed at countering China's railway influence in Myanmar through the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor.
Disturbingly, sources report an increase in India's arms supply to the Tatmadaw since the coup. This not only contradicts India's stance on restoring democracy but also fuels cross-border conflicts.

Navigating Complexity: India's Potential Approach

As Myanmar's tragedy unfolds, the recent events of extension, releases, and shifts within the military regime emphasize the intricate web of challenges the nation faces on its path to democracy and stability. The prolonged emergency, while delaying democratic elections, continues to perpetuate suffering and violence, undermining any prospects for genuine progress. The nuanced role of Aung San Suu Kyi remains a pivotal factor, poised to impact both the resistance movement and the military junta's maneuvers.
In this complex landscape, India's policy towards Myanmar emerges as a tightrope walk between its proclaimed commitment to democracy, regional security considerations, and economic interests. While India's initial aid during the pandemic and coup showcased proactive engagement, concerns over internal disturbances led to shifts in focus, notably seen in its border policies and arms supply decisions. This paradoxical stance underscores the formidable challenge of aligning democratic values with pragmatic security concerns and regional dynamics.
As India grapples with this intricate dilemma, a potential path emerges – one that capitalizes on the recent relaxation of Suu Kyi's sentence to engage with pro-democracy elements, fostering partnerships that contribute to Myanmar's long-term stability. Moreover, India's ability to address refugee concerns with empathy and restraint is crucial for preventing escalation and sustaining a compassionate approach.

India-Myanmar Relations

Myanmar's Strategic Importance for India

The geographical positioning of Myanmar holds significant advantages for India, fostering economic engagement, physical connectivity, and regional cooperation. This positioning serves as a pivotal link connecting South Asia with Southeast Asia, amplifying India's regional influence and outreach, especially for the Northeastern states.

Primary Indian Interests in Myanmar

Economic and Security Cooperation: India aims to establish a robust economic and security partnership with Myanmar, preventing the country's drift into China's sphere of influence.
Counterterrorism and Insurgency Management: Collaboration with the Myanmar military is vital to counter the use of its territory by Northeastern insurgent groups, such as Naga insurgents.
Supporting Democratic Transition: India is committed to assisting Myanmar's transition towards a full-fledged federal democracy.
Humanitarian Concerns: India seeks to address the plight of the Rohingyas and mitigate tensions between Bangladesh and Myanmar.

Economic Relations and Trade

While bilateral trade between the two nations has historically hovered around $2 billion, other global players like China, Singapore, Japan, and Korea have actively pursued business opportunities in Myanmar. Notably, pulses constitute a significant portion of Myanmar's exports. Indian businesses have potential investments in sectors such as power, steel, automobiles, and textiles.

Defense Collaboration

The defense ties between India and Myanmar have strengthened over the years, with India providing training to over 200 Myanmar military officers. Military equipment exchanges, including rocket launchers, night vision systems, radar, and torpedoes worth $37.9 million, have further solidified defense relations.

Cultural Bonds and People-to-People Ties

India's involvement extends to cultural preservation, as seen in the restoration of the Ananda Temple in Myanmar. People-to-people interactions form the bedrock of India-Myanmar relations, underpinning the robust grant-in-aid contributions from India.

Capacity Building and Socio-Economic Initiatives

India's commitment to capacity building is evident through institutions established for agricultural education, information technology, and industrial training in Myanmar. Collaborative efforts in research, as seen in the Advanced Centre for Agriculture Research and Education, demonstrate India's dedication to skill enhancement and knowledge sharing.

Challenges and Future Outlook

Despite progress, challenges persist, including incomplete projects, border issues, and limited trade infrastructure. To address these challenges, both nations must emphasize formalized cross-border trade, streamlined customs procedures, and enhanced people-to-people connectivity. Implementing the Kofi Annan Advisory Commission's recommendations on the Rohingya refugee issue, boosting socio-economic conditions, and expanding trade in services are crucial steps for the future.

Navigating Together Toward Mutual Prosperity

As India and Myanmar collaborate on multiple fronts, from economic growth to cultural preservation, a stronger foundation for bilateral relations is being laid. By addressing challenges, deepening economic cooperation, and fostering people-to-people ties, both countries can forge a path of mutual prosperity and growth, contributing to the realization of India's Act East policy

Conclusion

Ultimately, India's policy choices toward Myanmar hold ramifications beyond bilateral relations, resonating with the larger regional and international context. Striking a delicate equilibrium between its democratic ideals, security imperatives, and economic interests will be instrumental in shaping a coherent and effective approach, underscoring India's role in shaping Myanmar's future trajectory and contributing to the region's stability and progress.

Probable Questions for UPSC Main Exam-

How do Myanmar's ongoing conflicts and the extension of the 'emergency' impact the feasibility of conducting democratic elections across the country? (10 Marks,150 Words)
In light of India's dual interests in promoting democracy and ensuring regional security, how can India effectively balance its policies towards Myanmar and address concerns over arms supply to the military regime? (15 Marks,250 Words)

Source - The Hindu