Date : 10/11/2023

Relevance: GS Paper 2- International Relations-Geopolitics of South China Sea

Keywords: Strait of Malacca, One China policy, South China Sea, Indo-Pacific

Context-

As tensions between the United States and China escalate over Taiwan, the question looms large: What role would India play in the Strait of Malacca or the Andaman Sea in the event of a conflict? Generally, Andaman and Nicobar is considered a strategic location to blockade the Strait of Malacca, How much is it feasible?

The Infeasibility of Naval Blockade

Experts highlights the challenges of implementing a naval blockade against commercial shipping in the Strait of Malacca. While China's intimidation of Taiwan is evident, any speculative action by India would face significant hurdles. Commercial shipping and naval vessels enjoy the right to freedom of navigation on the high seas, making a naval blockade against commercial shipping unfeasible.

Constraints in the Strait of Malacca

• International Law Challenges: "Distant blockades" away from a belligerent nation's geography can be legally challenged under international law, posing a constraint on India's options.
• Shared Economic Lifeline: The trade passing through the Strait of Malacca is not solely China's economic and energy lifeline. Japan, South Korea, and India rely heavily on this route, complicating any unilateral action.
• Sovereignty of Other States: The length of the Strait (nearly 500 miles) brings in the sovereignty of other states like Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore, which would be adversely affected by a naval blockade.
• Complexity of Commercial Shipping: Identifying commercial shipping involves complexities related to vessel sovereignty, flag, registration, insurance, and cargo ownership, often being multinational and subject to change.
• Alternative Routes: The reality that even if the Strait of Malacca were blocked, shipping could detour through the Sunda or Lombok Straits adds another layer to the complexity.
• China's Strategic Reserves: China's significant onshore and floating Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) could mitigate disruptions, especially with growing overland energy supplies from Russia and Central Asia.

Naval Blockade and Unilateral Action Risks

• Chinoy emphasizes that a naval blockade or unilateral action against China's naval vessels would be considered a declaration of war, potentially leading to a broader conflict beyond the maritime sphere.
• Regional countries affected by a disruption in the Strait of Malacca, including friendly nations, are unlikely to endorse such actions.

Historical Lessons: First and Second World Wars

• Drawing lessons from history, Experts note that naval blockades and sanctions in both the First and Second World Wars led to conflagrations.
• The British blockade of Germany in WWI and the U.S. embargo on Japan's energy supplies in WWII are cited as examples where interdiction of commercial shipping escalated tensions.

Lessons from the Strait of Hormuz

• The ongoing tensions between Iran and the U.S. in the Strait of Hormuz are cited as a contemporary example.
• Attempts by Iran to disrupt internationally flagged oil tankers have consistently escalated the situation, showcasing how interdiction of commercial shipping can easily lead to military confrontations.

Conflict Scenarios and Global Support

• The critical question arises: Would India's strategic partners, especially the U.S., support the interdiction of Chinese vessels in a bilateral conflict between India and China?
• Experts posit that even in a scenario where the U.S. is involved in a kinetic conflict with China, the support of other stakeholders, especially Southeast Asian nations, is uncertain.

India's Role in a US-China Conflict

• In the event of a full-blown U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan, experts suggest that India's primary role may be limited to a proactive defense of its territorial interests and the security of its sea lines of communication in the eastern and western Indian Ocean.

Focus on Continental Borders

• Traditionally facing China's military threats on its borders, India's primary focus is expected to remain on its continental borders with China.
• The growing U.S.-India partnership in economic, high-tech, and military areas is seen as a potential contributor to stability in the region, with India playing a role as a regional ballast.

The Role of India in Multi-Polarity

• The Experts envision a robust India with a strong economy, nuclear deterrence capability, and a credible military contributing to multi-polarity in the Indo-Pacific.
• The evolving U.S.-India partnership is seen as crucial for regional stability, with India emerging as a significant player in the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific.

Conclusion

As the complexities and challenges surrounding the Strait of Malacca become apparent, India's options in the event of a US-China conflict over Taiwan remain nuanced and multifaceted. The need for a proactive defense of territorial interests, consideration of historical lessons, and the delicate balance of regional dynamics shape India's approach to navigating these turbulent waters.
In addition, India can rethink the One China Policy and separate its relationship with mainland China from that with Taiwan just as China is expanding its involvement in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) through its ambitious project China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Source - The Hindu