Context-

India’s role on the global stage is shaped by several key factors, but before looking into its trajectory, we must first grasp the state of the world today and the challenges it faces. The current global environment is marked by disorder, instability, and the breakdown of established systems of governance and cooperation. Understanding these shifts is critical to analysing how India will navigate the future and its role in global affairs.

The State of the World Today

The post-World War II global order is steadily giving way to chaos, characterised by conflicts, shifting trade flows, technological disruptions, and economic protectionism. This global disorder is being driven by several factors:

1.    Ongoing Conflicts:
The world is currently beset by devastating conflicts, including the Gaza conflict, the Ukraine war, and China’s aggressive actions, all of which have far-reaching global consequences. These conflicts have weakened the international order, creating instability.

2.    Technological and Economic Disruptions:
Rapid advances in technology, particularly Artificial Intelligence (AI), and the reshuffling of global trade and investment patterns are contributing to the disruption of global supply chains. Protectionist policies are further driving economic fragmentation, which is detrimental to global growth and stability.

3.    Rising Tensions in the Indo-Pacific:
The Indo-Pacific region faces significant geopolitical tensions. China’s growing footprint—politically, economically, and militarily—in the Indian Ocean and beyond continues to be a major concern for regional stability.

4.    A Multipolar World:
We are moving towards a multipolar world marked by issue-based alliances, where countries form partnerships of convenience rather than aligning with fixed blocs. While a Sino-Russian entente and a US-led Western alliance are emerging, many nations remain hesitant to fully commit to either side.

Global Institutions in Crisis

The failure of international institutions like the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), World Health Organization (WHO), World Trade Organization (WTO), and others, to live up to expectations has contributed significantly to the current global disorder. This failure is largely due to a lack of structural reforms and the tendency of founding members to manipulate these institutions to their advantage.

1.    UNSC’s Failures in Conflict Resolution:
The UNSC’s inability to prevent or resolve conflicts like those in Israel-Hamas, Ukraine, Myanmar, and Sudan is stark. According to SIPRI, as of 2023, 52 states were experiencing armed conflicts, with over 170,000 conflict-related fatalities.

2.    Challenges to Peace and Security:
The rise of terrorism, disruptive technologies such as AI, and nuclear threats continue to undermine international peace and security. The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists moved the Doomsday Clock to 90 seconds to midnight in 2023, highlighting the existential dangers we face.

The Threat of Terrorism

Despite years of global efforts, terrorism continues to be a potent menace. Historically, events such as World War I and the Gaza conflict were triggered by terrorist acts. Unfortunately, terrorism persists because some states use it as a tool of foreign policy, while others turn a blind eye due to political expediency. For terrorism to be effectively combated, a global consensus must be reached where any act of terrorism is condemned by all.

Sustainable Development Goals and Economic Inequality

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are also under severe threat. The 2024 SDG Report notes that progress has halted or reversed on many fronts. The combination of COVID-19, conflicts, climate change, and economic instability has pushed millions back into extreme poverty and exacerbated hunger. The global investment gap to meet these goals stands at $4 trillion annually, and foreign direct investment in developing nations has sharply declined.

India’s Role in This Uncertain World

India’s future global role will depend on four key factors: its comprehensive national power, the quality of its leadership, its civilizational ethos, and its national interests. These components will shape its influence and strategy in the years to come.

1.    Comprehensive National Power:
India boasts significant strengths, including its 3.2 million sq. km of territory, 1.4 billion population, fourth-strongest military, and an economy ranked fifth-largest globally. With foreign exchange reserves exceeding $650 billion, India is poised to be a powerful player. Both US News and CEO World Magazine have ranked India as one of the most powerful and influential nations globally.

2.    Leadership:
India’s current leadership is seen as steady, innovative, and able to meet adversity with resilience. This leadership has embraced technological advances and diplomatic opportunities to ensure India's rise on the global stage.

3.    Civilizational Values:
Rooted in its civilizational ethos, India has no extra-territorial ambitions and promotes peaceful coexistence. Its belief in treating the world as one family—“Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam”—drives its commitment to sustainable development and climate action.

4.    National Interests:
India remains committed to becoming a developed nation by 2047, and its foreign and domestic policies are aligned with this goal. National interest will always guide its decisions, particularly in resisting any threats to its growth and security.

Major Features of India’s Global Role

1. Proactive Foreign Policy:
   India’s foreign policy will remain dynamic and assertive. It will increasingly shape global outcomes rather than simply reacting to them, refusing to accept any restrictions on its sovereignty or decision-making.
2. Promotion of Indian Civilizational Values:
   India’s foreign policy will continue to draw on its cultural values, emphasizing peaceful coexistence, tolerance, and the protection of the global commons. It will further connect with its vast Indian diaspora, seen as a key asset in advancing national and international interests.
3. Champion of Peace and Stability:
   India, with no territorial ambitions, will act as a force for peace, favouring dialogue over conflict. Prime Minister Modi’s assertion that “this is not an era of war” reflects India’s commitment to peaceful solutions, including in conflicts like Ukraine.
4. Global Engagement Strategy:
   India will pursue a multi-pronged strategy:
   • Engage with America
   • Manage China
   • Cultivate Europe
   • Reassure Russia
   • Bring Japan into play
   • Strengthen ties with neighbors
5. Neighbourhood First:
   India will continue its Neighbourhood First policy, offering humanitarian aid, economic development, and disaster relief. Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives have already benefited from this policy, and India will persist in engaging regional nations, except for Pakistan, which remains a challenge due to its support for terrorism.
6. Voice of the Global South:
   India will champion the interests of the Global South. It has extended loans and developmental assistance to over 78 countries and hosted several summits to represent these nations on the global stage.
7. Safeguarding the Global Commons:
   India will remain deeply committed to safeguarding global commons such as oceans, space, and climate. Through initiatives like SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) and the Indo-Pacific Ocean Initiative, it seeks to foster cooperation on maritime and ecological issues.
8. Institutional Reforms:
   India will push for reforms in international organizations like the UN, aiming to make them more representative and effective.
9. Tackling Global Challenges:
   India will address key global challenges, including the risks posed by nuclear weapons, disruptive technologies, and climate change. It will continue to propose constructive solutions in global forums.
10. Climate Action Leadership:
    India has set ambitious climate goals, including achieving 500 GW of non-fossil energy capacity by 2030 and reaching net-zero emissions by 2070. Through initiatives like the International Solar Alliance, India is at the forefront of renewable energy solutions.

Conclusion

In an increasingly anarchic world, India’s role will be defined by its proactive approach, commitment to peace, and constructive engagement with global challenges. India will continue to be a champion of the Global South, a promoter of sustainable development, and a responsible global actor dedicated to peace and prosperity for all.

Source- Indian Express/ORF