Date: 26/09/2022

Relevance: GS-2: Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests; effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests, Indian diaspora.

Key Phrases: Global south, Global geopolitical developments, Global power tussles, Russia-Ukraine crisis, Multilateralism, BRICS, ASEAN, and China in Asia-pacific.

Context:

• The international system is witnessing geopolitical changes and a push for competitive great power hegemony.

Background

• The United States is pushing for continuing its primacy in the international system.
• The U.S.’s national security documents advocate
  • Curbing China’s rise
  • Weakening Russia’s capabilities
  • Securing Europe behind U.S. leadership
  • Building satellite alliances with countries which conform to U.S. interests and values.
• In such circumstances other major players including China have different agendas and the Global South becomes of utmost importance.

Experiences with the West as a factor

• Russia, with its vast natural resources and military capability, has shown capacity to assert its will in global geopolitics and the latest Ukraine invasion reiterates it.
• The US wants to weaken Russian capabilities and see Russia especially when in alliance with China or any other country as dangerous to U.S. geopolitics.
• The U.S. is using the Russia-Ukraine crisis for global primacy.
  • Europe is now firmly behind the U.S.’s strategic plans and is re-militarizing.
  • The west sees the developing Sino-Russian strategic partnership ‘without limits’ as the enemy

Double standards of west are for everyone to see

• Countries of the Global South, especially India, China and others, are being blamed for the failing sanctions against Russia in the context of the Ukraine war.
• In reality these countries want a quick and negotiated end to the Russia-Ukraine war; all oppose the sanctions regime and all advocate neutrality.
• The reasons for neutrality for these countries are many
  • Their survival in many spheres such as energy, fuel, fertilizers, wheat, commodities and defence equipment is linked with Russia.
  • They have memories of west’s colonialism and recent interventions such as Iraq (2003), Lebanon (1982, 2006), Libya (2011), Afghanistan (2001-21), Yemen (2010-on) Syria etc.
• Recent experiences such as the refusal by the West to grant a one-time exception for patents for the COVID-19 vaccine.
  • Racism in times of crisis; the way refugees from the South are treated in contrast to the welcome of Ukrainian refugees.
• Many countries of the South believe that they are unlikely to get western help when they need it the most and they don’t perceive Russia as a major threat.

China march and the Asia-Pacific

• China’s ‘grey zone’ policies — of creeping expansionism, and violation of maritime zones in the South China Seas and elsewhere — have antagonized countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, India and the Philippines.
• Even in such dynamic geopolitical developments unfolding, southern countries would not like to be a part of security or military alliances with either the West or the Russian or Chinese sides.
  • Recently China offered a security pact to 10 Pacific island nations that did not find favor with them.
  • They also did not agree with China’s ‘Common Development Vision’.
• The U.S. has tried to leverage this neutrality of the south by putting pressure on Russia and posing China as a threat to many African and Asian countries.
  • The south has cleared that it wants to make its own strategic choices which are evident from the fact that they have countered even US congress legislation such as the “Countering Malign Russian Activities in Africa Act”
• When China is waiving debt owed by 17 African countries (due in 2021) similar pushback has been from Latin America and the West Asian countries.
  • But even then there is a balancing act between regional powers by these countries such as Srilanka maintains a balance between India and China.

How has India responded?

• India has used its leverage to negotiate with multiple sides simultaneously.
• India increased oil purchases from Russia, shrugging off western pressure.
• India has a military Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) with the U.S.
  • At the same time it has developed the International North-South Transport Corridor connecting Russia and India via central Asia and Iran with three sanctioned states.
• It participates in military exercises such as the U.S.-led RIMPAC (the Rim of the Pacific Exercise, and one of the world’s largest maritime exercises)
  • It has also sent a military contingent for the Vostok exercises (one of exercises Moscow routinely conducts) with Russia and China.
• Therefore India is one of those members of the global south, others being Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey etc. who have developed the capacity to transact with competing and conflicting sides.

The global south and geo-economics

• The South is actively pursuing geo-economics and the fear of the U.S. strategy of freezing dollar reserves has made the South cautious.
• The recent announcement by the U.S of its trade policies of ‘re-shoring’ and ‘friend-shoring’ — meaning trade between allies.
  • It has gradually led the south to find ways of bypassing the dollar in bilateral trade by using local currencies.
  • Currency swap arrangements are used by China and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) + 3 countries; India with Russia and 23 other countries.

Strategic autonomy is the way ahead

• The Global South has a new agency and multilateral institutions, including BRICS, African Union, ASEAN, and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, have given it new confidence.
• Several countries including India, Brazil, South Africa etc. have become economic powerhouses
  • Although their own inequalities and domestic problems remain a concern.
• In these circumstances, neutrality and strategic autonomy have become viable options for these countries.

Conclusion

• The Global South has made a statement on its development, for better terms for trade for which it needs strategic autonomy.
• Therefore the need of the hour is the Global South voices collectively for the larger concerns on existential threats from climate change, ecological devastation, inequalities and increasing militarization.
  • If it works in plural inclusive ways it has greater potential to contribute and make this world a better place.

Source: The Hindu

Mains Question:

Q. In view of the rapidly changing geopolitical equations across the globe India needs a long term and clear vision to shape India’s strategic choices and behavior which can help in securing its interests, Discuss.(150 words).