Date : 16/09/2023

Relevance: GS Paper3 - Economy - Renewable Energy

Keywords: COP 28, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), G20, International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Paris Pact

Context-

• The 28th Conference of Parties (COP28) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), set to take place in Dubai from November 30 to December 12, has proposed a global target to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.
• This goal has also found its way into the G-20 declaration as an aspirational aim. While the idea of such a global target is appealing, a closer examination reveals important complexities that need to be addressed.

Current State of Renewable Energy:

• In 2021, the world's installed capacity for renewable energy sources (RES) in electricity generation stood at 3026 Gigawatts (GW), representing 39% of the total capacity from all sources. However, when considering total electricity generation, RES contributed only 28% to the mix. Notably, hydropower accounted for over half of RES generation, while solar and wind, combined, made up just 36%.
• To achieve the target of tripling RE capacity by 2030, we would need to add approximately 6000 GW of capacity, surpassing the total installed capacity from all sources in 2021. Solar and wind are expected to provide the bulk of this capacity, given the extended timelines typically associated with hydroelectric projects. Assuming a capacity utilization factor (CUF) of 25% for solar and wind combined, this implies generating about 13,000 Terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity from RES alone. If global electricity demand continues to grow at the pre-COVID-19 decade average of 2.6%, then achieving this tripling target would require RES to contribute 38% of total global electricity production.

• It's essential to acknowledge that there's no single "global" electricity demand; rather, there's a global aggregate of demand across countries. Electricity demand varies significantly among countries, and growth rates differ depending on their developmental stages.
• Developing countries, particularly China and India, have seen rapid growth in electricity consumption, with annual growth rates of 6.6% and 6.3%, respectively, between 2010 and 2019. In contrast, the European Union (EU) witnessed a 0.3% decline, and the United States experienced minimal 0.12% growth. This divergence in growth rates necessitates distinct approaches to meet the renewable energy target.
• For instance, the United States, if it doesn't phase out existing fossil fuel capacity, would require only around 26 GW of new RE capacity to meet additional demand, representing a mere 0.4% of the 6000 GW tripling target. In contrast, India would need approximately 717 GW of RE capacity to fulfill additional demand, equating to a 12% share of the tripling target.
• However, if the U.S. and the EU decide to phase out all fossil fuel-based electricity production, they would need to add about 1565 GW and 538 GW of additional RE capacity, respectively. In this scenario, they would bear a more equitable share of the burden, ensuring a less onerous transition for developing countries.

The Origin of the Global RE Target:

• Regrettably, the call for the global RE target at COP28 lacks transparency regarding its origin. It appears to draw inspiration from a report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), which suggests tripling total renewable power capacity to over 11 TW globally by 2030, compared to 2022 levels. The IRENA analysis closely mirrors the first, less equitable scenario presented here.
• In IRENA's analysis, most non-RE capacity additions by 2030 are projected for developing regions. By 2030, 80% of power generation capacity in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to come from RE sources, compared to 70% for the EU. While China and India have ambitious targets, the capacity divide between these regions and the developed world remains substantial.

Challenges and Considerations:

• Absolute projections of installed capacity pose challenges, primarily because they detach capacity addition from growth in energy demand. Relative targets are considered less risky as they are less dependent on demand growth matching expectations.
• Additionally, relying solely on developing countries to achieve this massive increase in RE capacity may not be feasible without matching non-RE capacity for supply stability and viable storage options. Furthermore, financing the development of national grids at such scale-up levels presents challenges, given the inability to meet even the minimal annual climate finance target of $100 billion.

Targets and Responsibilities:

• Notably, the most vocal proponents of the global RE target do not have comparable domestic targets. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi committed India to a 500 GW non-fossil fuel capacity target by 2030 at COP26, the United States and the European Union have not made similar absolute commitments.
• For them, targets serve more as market signals rather than government-mandated obligations.

Conclusion:

Developing countries at COP28, especially India, should consider the tripling global RE capacity target only if developed nations commit to equitable, absolute domestic targets that align with their responsibilities under the Paris Agreement. Achieving global renewable energy targets must be a collaborative effort with shared responsibilities to ensure a sustainable and equitable energy transition.

Source - The Hindu