The year 2024 has been declared the warmest on record, as confirmed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This announcement marks the culmination of a decade of unprecedented global warming, with 2015-2024 being the ten warmest years ever recorded. The global average surface temperature in 2024 was 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900), surpassing the critical threshold of 1.5°C above baseline temperatures. However, the situation in India presents a different picture, with a temperature increase of 0.65°C above normal levels, although still less than the global average.

Global Temperature Rise: Key Findings by the WMO

·         Record Global Temperature: The global average surface temperature in 2024 was 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels, marking the first time the global temperature exceeded 1.5°C. This milestone highlights the continued acceleration of climate change and underscores the urgency of mitigating global warming.

·         Ocean Heat: The oceans absorbed a record 16 zettajoules of heat in 2024. This amount of heat is roughly 140 times the total global electricity generation in 2023. Notably, approximately 90% of excess heat from global warming is stored in the oceans, causing long-term warming of ocean waters and affecting marine ecosystems.

·         Temperature Assessment: Despite exceeding the 1.5°C threshold, the WMO reassured that the Paris Agreement’s climate goals remain achievable, although every fraction of a degree exacerbates the impacts on ecosystems and human systems. The Paris Agreement aims to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C, with a target to limit it to 1.5°C.

Temperature Trends in India

India, like the rest of the world, is experiencing significant warming, but the extent of temperature rise is lower than the global average. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), India’s temperature in 2024 was 0.65°C above the normal, a figure substantially lower than the 1.55°C global rise. IMD data also shows that the temperature in India for 2024 was about 1.2°C higher than the 1901-1910 average, aligning with the long-term warming trend in the country.

However, this rise in temperature is still considerably lower than the global land surface temperature increase of 1.59°C since pre-industrial times. The oceans have warmed by approximately 0.88°C during the same period. The disparity between land and ocean warming is a crucial factor in understanding both global and regional climate change trends.

Reasons Behind Lower Warming Over India

·         Geographic Location: India is located in the tropical zone, close to the equator. Unlike polar regions, which are warming at a much higher rate due to atmospheric phenomena such as heat transfer from the tropics, India does not experience similar temperature increases. Higher latitudes, particularly in the Arctic, have seen temperature increases twice as fast as the global average. This phenomenon is due to the albedo effect, where the loss of ice and snow exposes land and water that absorbs more heat.

·         Albedo Effect: The Arctic is experiencing a dramatic rise in temperatures because of a lower albedo effect. The melting of ice exposes darker surfaces that trap more heat than ice-covered surfaces, which reflect sunlight. In contrast, India’s albedo effect is largely limited to the Himalayan regions, where snow and ice play a role in reflecting solar radiation.

·         Aerosols and Pollution: Aerosols and particulate matter in India’s atmosphere have a cooling effect by scattering solar radiation back into space. These aerosols, which also affect cloud formation, help to reduce the amount of sunlight absorbed by the Earth's surface. However, the high levels of air pollution in India, especially in urban areas, have a small but unintended consequence of slowing the rate of temperature increase.

·         Altitude Variations: India’s landmass is not uniform, and regional variations in temperature rise are significant. Some areas, such as the Himalayan region, are warming more quickly than others due to local geography and climate. However, on the national scale, the overall warming is still lower than the global average.

Consequences of Rising Global Temperatures

·         Sea Level Rise: Global sea levels have risen by approximately 8 inches since 1880 and are projected to rise by at least one more foot by 2100. This will inundate coastal areas, displacing millions of people and disrupting ecosystems, particularly in low-lying regions like Bangladesh, the Maldives, and parts of India.

·         Oceans and Marine Life: The oceans, which have absorbed most of the excess heat from global warming, are also becoming more acidic, with harmful effects on marine life. Ocean acidification, caused by increased CO2 absorption, threatens coral reefs and the marine food chain.

·         Heatwaves and Droughts: Prolonged periods of heat and drought are expected to intensify, exacerbating water shortages, agricultural challenges, and health risks. Conversely, cold waves will become less frequent. The heightened risk of wildfires due to extreme heat and drought poses additional threats to ecosystems and human infrastructure.

·         Biodiversity Loss: Rising temperatures and shifting weather patterns are driving many species towards extinction, disrupting ecosystems and biodiversity. The loss of biodiversity has far-reaching effects on food systems, water resources, and the health of the planet.

·         Health and Air Quality: Rising temperatures worsen air quality, leading to an increase in heat-related illnesses, respiratory issues, and the spread of vector-borne diseases like malaria and dengue.

India’s Path Forward: Strengthening Climate Monitoring and Response

·         Expansion of Weather Stations: To enhance climate observation capabilities, India needs to expand its weather stations, particularly in rural areas. A station in every major panchayat, as part of the Viksit Bharat vision for 2047, would help in gathering real-time data for more accurate climate assessments.

·         Enhancing Computing Capabilities: India must invest in advanced computing and analysis infrastructure to process climate data effectively. This will help in improving disaster management, agricultural forecasting, and formulating strategies for climate resilience.

·         Regular Impact Assessments: India should conduct regular climate change impact assessments to track evolving risks, such as sea level rise, ecosystem changes, and extreme weather events. These assessments are essential for designing targeted adaptation strategies and policy interventions.

·         Mission Mausam: The Mission Mausam initiative, aimed at improving weather prediction and responding to extreme weather events, should be further integrated with national and international systems for better forecasting, especially in coastal and mountainous regions.

·         Localized Impact Studies: Conducting localized studies that reflect the unique climate challenges faced by different regions will enable the development of targeted policies and adaptation strategies. These studies will focus on areas like the Himalayas, coastal zones, and urban centers.

Conclusion

The warming of the planet, as evidenced by the WMO’s findings for 2024, presents urgent challenges to both global and national climate resilience. While India’s warming is comparatively lower than the global average, the country faces its own set of challenges due to its geographical location, air pollution levels, and regional temperature variations. The need for strengthened climate monitoring, localized impact studies, and improved disaster management systems has never been more critical. By taking proactive measures and investing in the necessary infrastructure and research, India can mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change and build a more resilient future for its population and ecosystems.