Date : 06/11/2023

Relevance – GS Paper 3 – Indian Economy – Issue related to the Development ( Also Relevant for GS Paper 2 – IR – International Institutions)

Keywords –UNFPA, India Aging Report 2023, NFHS 2022, Multipolar World

Context

Examining demographics is crucial for comprehending the path of human civilization. Consequently, discussions and speculations about the future of humanity have been of significant interest. Reports such as the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) report from 2019 and the India Aging Report of 2023 offer valuable insights into the global and Indian demographic scenarios, shedding light on how these factors might lead to the reshaping of geopolitical landscapes across nations.

Analyzing Global Demographic Trends

Insights from UNFPA:

In 2019, the UNFPA projected India to soon surpass China as the world's most populous country. Between 2027 and 2050, India, alongside nations like Nigeria, Pakistan, Ethiopia, and the United States, was expected to experience substantial population growth, collectively constituting over half of the global population. Simultaneously, the report highlighted the doubling of Sub-Saharan Africa's population by 2050.

IMF's Perspective on Global Demographics:

The IMF emphasized a crucial global demographic trend: the aging of the world's population due to increased longevity, declining fertility rates, and the aging of larger age groups. By 2050, age groups like adolescents and young adults were anticipated to be on par with older individuals, marking a significant shift from the 1970s. Japan, with over 28% of its population aged 65 and above, serves as an example of this trend.

Demographic Landscape in India

Insights from UNFPA India Aging Report 2023:

Globally, the population aged 60 and above numbered 1.1 billion in 2022, constituting 13.9% of the total population. This number is expected to double to 2.1 billion by 2050, representing 22% of the global population. In India, 149 million people were aged 60 and above in 2022, making up 10.5% of the country's population. By 2050, this demographic segment is projected to double to 20.8%, with 347 million older individuals, significantly impacting India's health, economy, and society.

Findings from the National Family Health Survey 2022:

With fertility levels dropping below the replacement level of 2.1 in most Indian states, except for Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the nation's overall fertility rate stands at 1.6, comparable to developed countries. This, combined with increased longevity, will lead to a substantial elderly population, shaping India's demographic landscape significantly.

Comparative Analysis: Declining Fertility Challenges in Developed and Developing Nations

Fertility Trends:

Developing countries are witnessing a rapid decline in fertility rates early in their development journey, contrasting with developed nations. Higher per capita income levels in developed countries during their aging phase provided a cushion against economic pressures, a luxury not available to developing nations like India.

Economic Context:

Developed nations had a stronger economic base to support their aging populations, unlike developing countries such as India, which struggle due to a smaller economic pie to sustain their elderly citizens.

Dependency Ratios and Demographic Shift:

The UNFPA highlights the swift increase in old age dependency ratios in developing countries, including India, where the elderly population (above 60 years) is projected to grow by 41% between 2021 and 2031. This shift implies a pressing challenge for developing countries, with the elderly outnumbering children below 15 years by 2046 in India.

Implications of Aging Population:

Developing nations face immediate and severe consequences, including a diminished workforce and taxpayer base, limiting their ability to generate wealth. Additionally, healthcare systems bear additional burdens due to the growing healthcare needs of the elderly population.

Population Dynamics and Geopolitical Shifts:

Rise and Decline of China: A study in Lancet (2020) predicts China surpassing the United States in total GDP by 2035. However, China's rapid population decline means the US will regain the top spot due to sustained growth facilitated by liberal immigration policies.

Multipolar World and Geopolitical Power: The Lancet report envisions a multipolar world by the end of the century, with India, Nigeria, China, and the US as dominant powers, driven significantly by their working-age populations. Geopolitical power dynamics will be influenced by immigration and robust reproductive and sexual rights for women.

Declining Influence of Europe and Asia: Asia and Europe, with their shrinking populations, will witness declining influence in geopolitics. For instance, China's population is projected to decrease from 1.4 billion in 2017 to 732 million in 2100, significantly impacting Asia's geopolitical standing. Similarly, European countries like Italy and Japan will experience substantial population declines, further diminishing their global influence.

Conclusion

Esteemed institutions have underscored distinct patterns concerning the global human population: our species is aging, and our numbers are diminishing. By the end of the century, India's population will have decreased significantly, leading to a substantial increase in senior citizens. This demographic shift will inevitably trigger a geopolitical reshaping of the global order. The critical question at hand is whether India is adequately prepared for this impending demographic transformation.

Source – The Indian Express