Date : 25/11/2023

Relevance: GS Paper 3 – Environment and Ecology

Keywords: CBDR-RC, Global Carbon Budget, UNFCCC, Net Zero

Context-

The intricate relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions underscores the urgency of addressing climate change. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established in 1992 introduced the principle of 'common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities' (CBDR-RC), recognizing that different states possess varying responsibilities and capacities in addressing climate change. This principle persists in the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit the global temperature increase. However, the disproportionate historical carbon emissions of developed countries have impacted the global carbon budget, necessitating careful consideration of equitable distribution.

What is CBDR-RC?

The principle of CBDR was first introduced in the 1992 UNFCCC in Rio De Janeiro. The CBDR concept has evolved into CBDR-RC with the addition of Respective Capacities term to it, in the Paris Accord. CBDR-RC principle, has since then been a key element in international environmental agreements involving climate change. Common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) principle is back in focus, as the members of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) assemble for the Conference of Parties (COP 28) meeting in Dubai, UAE.

Global Carbon Budget and Disproportionate Emissions:

The global carbon budget refers to the total allowable amount of human-generated carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the pre-industrial era until the point at which emissions reach net-zero. This budget is crucial for limiting global warming to a specific level with a certain probability. The remaining carbon budget indicates the amount of CO2 that can still be emitted while adhering to the target temperature limit, starting from a designated time after the pre-industrial period.

According to the IPCC AR6, the world had experienced a significant warming of 1.07 degrees Celsius by 2019 compared to pre-industrial levels, depleting nearly 80% of the global carbon budget. This means that only about one-fifth of the budget remains to achieve the temperature target set in the Paris Agreement.

To have a 50% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, countries need to achieve net-zero emissions sooner than previously projected. For instance, the United States would need to reach net-zero by 2025 instead of 2050, Germany by 2030 instead of 2045, and the European Union (EU-28) by 2031 instead of 2050. Meeting these timelines is essential for staying within the available carbon budget and mitigating the impacts of climate change.

According to the IPCC AR6, developed nations have disproportionately utilized a larger portion of the global carbon budget up to the present.

Despite comprising nearly 24% of the global population, South Asia, including India, has contributed only about 4% to historical cumulative emissions. The per capita CO2-FFI (fossil fuel and industry) emissions in South Asia stand at a modest 1.7 tonnes CO2-equivalent per capita, a stark contrast to North America's 15.4 tonnes CO2-eq. per capita and well below the global average of 6.6 tonnes CO2-eq. per capita.

Implications for India:

1. The global carbon budget, essential for achieving temperature limits, is a shared resource under UNFCCC principles.
2. India needs to view its 'fair share of the carbon budget' as a national resource depleting due to over-exploitation by developed nations.
3. Failing to strategically utilize our resources risks falling victim to new colonial tactics employed by developed countries.
4. Most IPCC scenarios predict breaching the 1.5-degree Celsius limit by the early 2030s, highlighting the urgency of action.
5. In 2022, oil, coal, and gas accounted for 30%, 27%, and 23% of global energy, while solar and wind contributed only 2.4%.
6. The world remains heavily reliant on non-renewable energy sources.
7. Developed nations pressure developing ones for rapid, economy-wide changes, exemplified by COP 26 talks forcing coal phase-out but later reopening plants amid the Russia-Ukraine war.
8. Immediate fossil fuel phase-out is deemed infeasible during crises, limiting developing countries' growth potential.
9. Developed nations label gas as "green" and a "bridge fuel," extending the debate on decarbonization efforts.

Challenges and Developments:

The COP 26 talks in Glasgow highlighted the push to phase down coal use, but subsequent events, such as the reopening of coal plants in Europe post the Russia-Ukraine war, showcased the complexities of this transition. Developed countries' attempts to enforce rapid changes have limitations and potentially hinder the growth prospects of developing nations.

India's developmental strides, as evidenced by the Multidimensional Poverty Index Report 2023, underscore the need to balance poverty eradication with climate change mitigation. The Indian government has proactively initiated efforts like the International Solar Alliance, Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure, and Global Biofuel Alliance. However, the emphasis on sustainable development and lifestyle practices should not overshadow the imperative for developed countries to fulfill their climate finance commitments.

India's Stance at COP 28:

According to the Multidimensional Poverty Index Report 2023 by NITI Aayog and the U.N. Development Programme, India has successfully lifted over 135 million people out of poverty in less than five years (2015-2021). The country has also extended food security measures to over 800 million individuals through the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY), underscoring the significant challenge of combating poverty in the aftermath of COVID-19.

The current scenario raises important questions about the allocation of resources in developing countries towards addressing global issues like climate change. Until developed nations take substantial steps to mitigate the problems they've contributed to, the efforts of developing countries may seem futile. It is crucial for developing nations to receive a fair share of the carbon budget, coupled with more robust commitments from developed countries, including the fulfillment of promises related to climate-specific financing.

The Indian government has played a leading role in fostering international consensus on climate change. Initiatives like the International Solar Alliance, the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure, and the Global Biofuel Alliance highlight India's commitment. The 'Lifestyle for Environment' (LiFE) mission aims to promote sustainable lifestyles and raise awareness about eco-friendly practices.

As COP 28 approaches, India should advocate for a fair allocation of its carbon budget or equivalent reparations to rectify global inequities. Development remains a key defense against the impacts of climate change, and scientists estimate that, based on a conservative estimate of $50/tCO2-eq, developed countries' carbon debt to the world exceeds $51 trillion. Considering India's historical emissions (1850-2019), its carbon credit stands at 338 GtCO2-eq, equivalent to approximately $17 trillion at $50/tCO2-eq. Without the promised finance and technology from the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, developing countries face an increasingly unfair global landscape.

Conclusion

The intricate interplay between historical emissions, the global carbon budget, and the principles of CBDR-RC necessitate a nuanced approach to climate policy. India, at COP 28, should advocate for fair treatment, acknowledging its developmental achievements while emphasizing the urgency for developed nations to fulfill their commitments. A new era requires a more equitable global order, where finance and technology bridge the gap, ensuring a sustainable and fair approach to combating climate change.

Source- The Hindu