Date : 21/08/2023

Relevance – GS Paper 2 - International Relations

Keywords – LAC, South China Sea, Autonomy, Diplomacy

Context –

China's recent surge in territorial assertiveness has set the stage for heightened tensions in key regions, from the South China Sea to the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with India. As Beijing aims to safeguard its territorial claims and counterbalance the growing influence of the United States in its neighborhood, experts warn that its aggressive approach could yield unintended consequences, potentially driving its neighbors closer to the very power it seeks to counter.

Escalating Tensions and China's Strategic Calculus:

China's conspicuous and audacious steps to assert its territorial claims have garnered widespread attention on an international scale. This heightened position stems from China's escalating concerns regarding its neighboring nations cultivating more robust affiliations with the United States. As a reaction to this perceived challenge, China has opted for an assertive demeanor, thereby intensifying prevailing tensions and sparking heightened concerns about the sustainability and effectiveness of this strategic approach in the longer run.

The India-China Nexus:

The recent 19th round of talks between China and India, held at the Chushul-Moldo border meeting point, culminated in a joint release indicating both sides' commitment to resolving outstanding issues. Despite this gesture, the negotiations have been far from swift, with China adopting a rigid stance on its territorial claims along the LAC. Analysts and officials caution that China's apparent de-escalation might merely serve as a tactical move to create conducive conditions for a high-level leadership meeting. However, China's continuous military buildup along the border casts a shadow on immediate prospects for peaceful resolution.

A Parallel Drama in the South China Sea:

China's assertiveness transcends its borders and extends to the South China Sea, where territorial disputes with regional players have intensified. This strategy aligns with China's broader goal of reinforcing its territorial claims while reducing the influence of nations that have aligned themselves with the U.S. In a notable instance, a Chinese coast guard vessel employed water cannons to deter a Philippine vessel from delivering supplies to a contested area. These actions underscore China's readiness to escalate conflicts to safeguard its interests.

Viewing India-US Relations through Beijing's Lens:

China's heightened assertive conduct is intricately connected to its interpretation of India's association with the United States. As the rivalry between China and the U.S. becomes progressively more conspicuous, Beijing is placing growing emphasis on assessing its connections with India within the broader framework of its comprehensive relationship with Washington. Indian officials argue that this limited viewpoint has played a role in exacerbating the decline of relations between India and China.

India's Struggle for Autonomy and Diplomacy:

China's pressure tactics have spurred discussions within Beijing's strategic circles. Two distinct viewpoints have emerged. One camp believes that exerting pressure on India will deter it from aligning more closely with the U.S. The opposing perspective acknowledges India's historically independent foreign policy, exemplified by its handling of the Ukraine crisis. This perspective underscores the potential risk of China's coercive measures inadvertently pushing India into the U.S. orbit.

Decoding the Enigma:

China's current strategy of assertively asserting its territorial claims in order to discourage neighboring nations from strengthening their ties with the United States is a risky approach. While the main goal for Beijing is to offset the increasing influence of the U.S., the confrontational manner in which it is pursuing this objective could potentially lead to an unexpected result. This unintended consequence might involve unintentionally pushing its neighboring countries, with a specific focus on India, towards forming even stronger alignments with the United States. Consequently, China's actions may unintentionally end up bolstering the very containment strategy that it is striving to evade.

The Delicate Balancing Act:

The territorial assertiveness exhibited by China poses a substantial and intricate challenge for its leadership to grapple with. Navigating the intricate balance between firmly asserting territorial claims while concurrently steering clear of alienating neighboring countries is a multifaceted and demanding undertaking. In a world that is progressively more interlinked, actions undertaken within one specific region possess the capacity to send reverberations resonating across the expansive global platform. China's leadership finds itself in the position of having to meticulously evaluate the immediate advantages inherent in its assertive approach, measuring them against the enduring and potentially extensive hazards tied to the prospect of self-imposed isolation and the inadvertent propulsion of neighboring nations toward the sphere of influence wielded by the United States.

Conclusion:

China's strategic maneuver involving assertiveness over territorial matters, executed with the intention of dissuading neighboring nations from forging affiliations with the United States, is undeniably a high-stakes endeavor that hinges on calculated risk assessment. While the primary aim of this strategy is to safeguard China's vested interests, it is imperative to acknowledge and consider the potential counterproductive repercussions that loom in the background. There exists a plausible scenario wherein this assertive approach, while intending to bolster China's position, inadvertently stimulates the cultivation of stronger rapport between its neighboring countries and the United States, thus culminating in a geopolitical outcome that fundamentally diverges from its initial objectives. Navigating the path ahead necessitates the adoption of a cautiously measured and judiciously calibrated approach – one that meticulously safeguards against the inadvertent strengthening of the very alliances that China is actively striving to diminish.

Source – The Hindu