Context:

In a significant development that has caught global attention, China recently approved the construction of the world’s largest hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River, which flows from Tibet into India. The mega dam project, which will be located at the “Great Bend” of the Tsangpo, promises to be a game-changer in the hydropower sector, with a projected capacity of 60,000 MW, three times that of the current largest hydropower project, the Three Gorges Dam. However, the dam's construction raises several concerns for neighboring India, which is a lower riparian state of the Brahmaputra River system, as it could directly impact water flow, ecology, and regional stability. In this article, we explore the reasons behind the project, its potential implications for India, and the concerns surrounding its execution.

Why Is It a Matter of Concern for India?

·        India’s primary concern lies in the impact of the Tsangpo Dam on the Brahmaputra River’s water flow. As the lower riparian state, India depends on the steady flow of water from Tibet for agriculture, industry, and drinking water. Any alteration in the river’s flow could severely affect these sectors, leading to water shortages, reduced agricultural productivity, and economic instability.

·        Moreover, the ecological impact of such a massive dam cannot be underestimated. Dams of this scale disrupt natural watercourses, affect sediment flow, and alter local ecosystems. For a river like the Brahmaputra, which supports vast biodiversity and a unique ecosystem, even minor changes in water flow can lead to significant ecological damage.

·        In addition, the region where the dam is being constructed is seismically active and ecologically fragile. Any mishap or mismanagement could trigger catastrophic events, as seen with other large dams, where landslides, floods, and changes to river morphology have caused widespread destruction. India has raised concerns about the potential for such risks, pointing to the 2005 Parechu Lake incident in Himachal Pradesh as an example of how dam-related disasters can have regional consequences.

Why Does China Want to Build the Mega Dam?

·        China’s motivation for constructing the Tsangpo Dam is tied to its broader goal of reducing dependence on conventional energy sources and achieving net carbon neutrality by 2060. The immense flow of water through the Yarlung Tsangpo, coupled with the steep gradient of the river, provides ideal conditions for generating hydroelectric power.

·        Hydropower is part of China’s ambitious strategy to meet its growing energy demands while reducing its carbon footprint. The dam will also contribute significantly to the region's energy grid, making it a cornerstone of China’s energy infrastructure plans.

·        However, this colossal project has sparked concerns not only for India but for the entire South Asian region, particularly because of its potential effects on water security, agriculture, and local ecosystems in countries downstream, such as India and Bangladesh.

Implications for India: 

 The construction of the Tsangpo Dam raises several implications for India:

1.    Water Security: Changes in the river’s flow could drastically reduce the water supply to India, affecting millions of people who depend on the Brahmaputra for agriculture and daily use. It could also harm the downstream environment, which is highly dependent on the natural sediment flow for maintaining soil fertility.

2.    Ecological Consequences: The dam could disrupt the ecological balance in the region, affecting aquatic biodiversity and the surrounding ecosystem. The river's unique biodiversity, including its fish species, could be at risk, along with the livelihoods of local communities who depend on the river for fishing and agriculture.

3.    Geopolitical Tensions: The project could exacerbate existing geopolitical tensions between India and China, especially given the lack of transparency in the planning and execution of such projects. India’s diplomatic response will be crucial in addressing the concerns of its citizens and ensuring that the interests of lower riparian states are not ignored.

4.    Coordination and Cooperation: India and China currently have a limited coordination mechanism in place for managing transboundary rivers. Although there is a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for cooperation on the Brahmaputra, it lapsed in 2023, and discussions on its renewal have been slow. India’s challenge will be to push for stronger, more effective cooperation to prevent adverse consequences from Chinese projects on shared rivers.

Existing Coordination Mechanism on Transboundary Rivers between India and China

India and China share several transboundary rivers, requiring cooperation mechanisms to address water-related issues. However, the existing agreements face limitations, especially in data sharing and implementation.

1.    Umbrella Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) – 2013 The Umbrella MoU is a general agreement that covers cooperation on transboundary rivers with no expiry date. However, it has not led to active initiatives, and its provisions are not sufficient for addressing specific concerns like the construction of large dams or data sharing.

2.    Brahmaputra MoU Signed to facilitate data sharing on the Brahmaputra River, the Brahmaputra MoU was renewed every five years but lapsed in 2023. The renewal process is ongoing, and the lapse has raised concerns over the transparency of data sharing, which is critical for India’s water security, agriculture, and hydroelectric power generation.

3.    Sutlej MoU The Sutlej MoU, created after the 2004 Parechu Lake incident, addresses flood risks from the Sutlej River. However, it lacks year-round data sharing and is pending renewal. The absence of a comprehensive data-sharing system leaves India vulnerable to sudden changes in water flow or potential disasters.

4.    Expert Level Mechanism (ELM) – 2006 The Expert Level Mechanism was established for annual discussions between India and China on hydrological data and river management. However, this mechanism has faced interruptions, particularly during periods of geopolitical tension, hampering effective cooperation.

What Can India Do?

India needs to address these concerns diplomatically, raising the stakes in its engagement with China. This involves pushing for stronger transparency mechanisms, increased data-sharing on water flow, and joint monitoring of the river system. India should also continue to emphasize the need for cooperation under frameworks like the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses, which mandates equitable use of shared water resources.

Conclusion:

The construction of the Tsangpo Dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River marks a critical juncture in India-China relations, with potential far-reaching consequences for water security, ecological balance, and regional stability. While China’s ambition for hydropower generation is understandable, India must continue to press for more transparency and cooperation to safeguard its interests. Only through robust diplomatic dialogue and strong international cooperation can the two nations ensure the sustainable and equitable use of their shared water resources.