Context-

In January 2024, SIPRI  noted that the US and Russia have programs to modernize their nuclear forces and that China's nuclear arsenal increased from 410 in January 2023 to 500 in January 2024. SIPRI said that while the total number of nuclear warheads is decreasing as Cold War-era weapons are dismantled, the number of operational warheads is increasing each year.

The Historical Context of Nuclear Weapons

• “Now I have become death, the destroyer of worlds,” were the words reiterated by Robert Oppenheimer from the Bhagavad Gita when he witnessed the first detonation of a nuclear bomb in 1945. This event forever altered the realm of geopolitics and measures of destruction. Within a month of this scientific milestone, the devastation was witnessed during World War II.
• Acknowledging the scale, intensity, and impact of such weapons, the strategic community recognized the need to regulate its wielders, operators, and users.
• Alongside the Cold War, two formidable poles of the nuclear order emerged: the United States (US) and the erstwhile USSR, which together account for nearly 90 percent of the world’s nuclear stockpile. This nuclear camp later expanded to include China, followed by India, Pakistan, and others.

The Geopolitical Framework

• The Role of Treaties : Although treaties like the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) attempt to establish a framework for a nuclear order, the geopolitical underpinnings and interests of each nation predominantly define this order. It is characterized by the interplay of nuclear-armed states and non-nuclear-armed states, interactions among nuclear-armed states, and geopolitical contestations. Regional nuclear dyads and triads play a crucial role in shaping this order.

Geopolitical Fault Lines & Exacerbating Nuclear Competition

• Structural Fault Lines : A vital element that intensifies nuclear competition in the region is the structurally formed geopolitical fault lines. These fault lines, characterized by historical animosities, unresolved territorial disputes, ideological differences, and strategic competition for regional dominance, drive nations to bolster their nuclear capabilities. The presence of nuclear weapons often serves as a deterrent against perceived threats, influencing states to adopt assertive postures to maintain or enhance their strategic leverage.
• Regional Instability and Preparedness : Such geopolitical divides create conditions where states prioritize military preparedness, including nuclear arsenals, as a means to secure national interests and maintain regional influence.

Regional Contestations

• The Great Power Nuclear Dyad : The rise of China as a nuclear power poses significant challenges to the established US-led nuclear order, reflecting broader geopolitical shifts and intensifying strategic competition between the two superpowers. China’s nuclear modernization and expansion have shifted from a minimal deterrence posture to a more robust one, driven by the desire to ensure a credible second-strike capability, thereby enhancing its strategic autonomy and deterring potential adversaries.
• China’s Growing Nuclear Arsenal : China’s growing nuclear arsenal, estimated to be close to 500 with projections of substantial growth, underscores Beijing’s commitment to enhance its strategic deterrence. This trajectory challenges the existing nuclear order, predominantly shaped by the US and its allies through frameworks like the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and arms control agreements like the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START). However, China’s reluctance to engage in bilateral or trilateral arms control negotiations complicates efforts to integrate it into the existing order, raising concerns about an arms race and strategic instability. This changing nuclear posture of China is a major driver of the restructuring of the global nuclear order from a bipolar nuclear order to a multipolar one.

The Southern Asian Nuclear Triad

• Power Asymmetry in the Region : China’s advanced nuclear arsenal and its strategic partnership with Pakistan underpin a significant power asymmetry in the region. China’s nuclear modernization, driven by its broader geopolitical ambitions, influences India’s strategic calculus. India, perceiving a dual threat from both China and Pakistan, has pursued a credible minimum deterrent strategy, investing in a triad of nuclear delivery systems and advanced missile defense capabilities.
• Regional Tensions and Non-Proliferation Efforts : The dynamics within this nuclear triangle exacerbate regional tensions and complicate global non-proliferation efforts. Unlike the US-Soviet bipolar nuclear order, the trilateral nature of nuclear deterrence in South Asia involves more bilateral complexities, each with distinct security concerns and strategic imperatives. This multipolarity increases the risk of miscalculation and inadvertent escalation, posing challenges to crisis stability and conflict resolution mechanisms.

Russian Nuclear Posture in Europe

• Nuclear Doctrine and Regional Dominance : Russia’s strategic doctrine underscores the employment of nuclear weapons as a deterrent against NATO’s military presence and potential encroachments. This posture encompasses the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Europe and the modernization of its strategic nuclear forces, reflecting a broader effort to sustain regional dominance and strategic parity with the US.
• Implications of the Ukrainian War : In the context of the Ukrainian war, President Vladimir Putin’s statements about Russia’s readiness to use nuclear weapons if threatened have injected a new level of volatility into the international security environment, emphasizing the precarious nature of nuclear deterrence. This escalation undermines the taboo against the use of nuclear weapons, which has been a cornerstone of nuclear deterrence theory and international stability since the end of World War II.

The Middle Eastern Tug-of-War

• Israel and Iran: Nuclear Power Struggle : The Middle Eastern nuclear power struggle between Israel and Iran profoundly influences regional stability. Israel’s policy of “nuclear opacity” serves as a strategic deterrent in an otherwise hostile neighborhood. Conversely, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, despite being framed as peaceful, have raised alarms, leading to international sanctions and diplomatic efforts to curtail its capabilities.

East Asian Nuclear Instability

• North Korea’s Nuclear Ambitions : North Korea’s nuclear ambitions have been a focal point of regional instability in East Asia. Pursuing nuclear weapons since the 1990s, North Korea has conducted multiple nuclear tests and developed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capabilities, heightening security concerns. The threat of a nuclear-armed North Korea has prompted strong geopolitical contestations primarily from the US, Japan, and South Korea. These nations have employed a mix of diplomatic negotiations, economic sanctions, and military deterrence to curb Pyongyang’s nuclear advancements.
• Geopolitical Alliances : North Korea’s close strategic proximity with China and Russia complicates these efforts. Both countries provide critical economic and political support to North Korea, often undermining international sanctions and diplomatic isolation strategies led by the US and its allies. This support not only emboldens Pyongyang’s defiance but also reflects broader geopolitical rivalries, as China and Russia seek to counter US influence in the region. This intricate web of alliances and oppositions significantly shapes the current nuclear order.

The Shifting Balance of Nuclear Power

• Transformation of the Global Nuclear Order : The global nuclear order is undergoing a profound transformation, significantly influenced by regional nuclear contestations that mirror broader geopolitical shifts. As states navigate the intricate landscape of nuclear deterrence, non-proliferation, disarmament, and regional dynamics, various hotspots around the world reveal the complexities of sustaining global nuclear stability. This metamorphosis marks a departure from the Cold War’s bipolar structure towards a more fragmented, multipolar nuclear environment.
• Emerging Nuclear States and Modernization : Emerging nuclear states and the modernization of arsenals by established powers contribute to an increasingly volatile strategic landscape. Regional rivalries, evident in diverse geopolitical arenas, serve as microcosms of global nuclear tensions, illustrating how localized conflicts can have extensive ramifications for international security. The nuclear states attempt to prevent horizontal proliferation and maintain the status quo while aspiring states strive to acquire nuclear weapons and assert their influence. These geopolitical contestations between nuclear states and aspiring non-nuclear states are major drivers in shaping the evolving nuclear order.

Conclusion

The evolving global nuclear order is increasingly defined by these regional contestations, underscoring the imperative for comprehensive diplomatic strategies that address both global and local dimensions of nuclear risk. Acknowledging the intricate interplay between regional conflicts and the overarching nuclear framework is paramount for devising a comprehensive strategy that adeptly manages and stabilizes the evolving nuclear landscape.

Source- ORF