Context

The possibility of a future Palestinian state has long been a contentious issue in international politics, with numerous challenges and complexities. The question of whether such a state can emerge is intricately linked to the historical, political, and social dynamics of the region. The Oslo Accords signed in 1993 between Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat were a significant attempt to pave the way for peace and the establishment of a Palestinian state. However, the situation remains fraught with difficulties, and the path to a two-state solution is obstructed by numerous hurdles. The ongoing conflict, exemplified by recent events such as Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and Israel's subsequent military actions in Gaza, highlights the persistent volatility and complexity of the issue.

Origins and Definition of the Two-State Solution

The concept of the two-state solution involves dividing historical Palestine, which lies between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea, into separate Jewish and Arab states. While Israel was established as a Jewish state in 1948, a Palestinian state has yet to materialize. Since 1967, Palestinian territories have been under Israeli occupation, making the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state a critical component of the two-state solution. This solution envisions a legitimate Palestinian state that enjoys full rights as a nation-state under the United Nations Charter.

The origins of the two-state solution can be traced back to the British mandate period in the 1930s. In 1936, the British government established the Peel Commission to investigate the causes of Arab-Jewish clashes in Palestine. The commission's proposal in 1937 suggested partitioning Palestine into separate Jewish and Arab states. Although this proposal was rejected by the Arabs, it set the stage for future discussions on partitioning the land. Following World War II, the United Nations Special Commission on Palestine (UNSCOP) proposed a more detailed partition plan, which included a Jewish state, an Arab state, and an international territory comprising Jerusalem. This plan was adopted by the UN General Assembly in 1947 (Resolution 181), but it was also rejected by the Arab states, leading to further conflict and the eventual establishment of Israel.

International Legitimacy and Early Peace Efforts

The concept of a two-state solution gained further legitimacy after the 1967 Six-Day War, during which Israel captured the West Bank, East Jerusalem, the Gaza Strip, the Sinai Peninsula, and the Golan Heights. Although Israel later returned the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt following the Camp David Accords in 1978, it continues to control the other territories. The emergence of Palestinian nationalism, led by the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), further galvanized the push for a Palestinian state. Initially, the PLO sought the liberation of all Palestinian lands but later accepted the two-state solution based on the 1967 borders.

The Camp David Accords of 1978 marked a significant step towards peace in the Middle East. These accords, which followed the 1973 Yom Kippur War, included a Framework for Peace in the Middle East that proposed establishing an autonomous self-governing Palestinian authority in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. This framework laid the groundwork for the Oslo Accords, signed in 1993 and 1995, which formalized the two-state solution and established the Palestinian National Authority as a self-governing body in the West Bank and Gaza. Despite these efforts, the promise of Oslo— the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state living in peace alongside Israel— remains unfulfilled.

Hurdles to the Two-State Solution

Several significant obstacles impede the realization of a two-state solution. One of the primary issues is the lack of clearly defined borders. Israel's territorial expansion has complicated the establishment of a Palestinian state. In 1948, Israel captured more territory than allocated by the UN, and in 1967, it further expanded its control. Since the 1970s, Israel has been building Jewish settlements in Palestinian territories, further complicating the situation. Palestinians demand a future state based on the 1967 borders, but Israel has not committed to this.

Another major hurdle is the status of Jewish settlers. Approximately 700,000 Jewish settlers currently live in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Any potential withdrawal to the 1967 borders would require relocating these settlers, a politically sensitive issue in Israel. The settlers represent a powerful political constituency, and no Israeli Prime Minister can easily reverse their settlements without facing significant political backlash.

The status of Jerusalem is another contentious issue. Palestinians claim East Jerusalem, home to Al Aqsa Mosque, Islam's third holiest site, as the capital of their future state. In contrast, Israel insists that the entire city, which includes the Western Wall, Judaism's holiest site, is its "eternal capital." This disagreement over Jerusalem's status remains a major sticking point in peace negotiations.

The right of return for Palestinian refugees is also a significant issue. Around 700,000 Palestinians were displaced during the establishment of Israel in 1948. International law supports their right to return to their homes, but Israel opposes this, fearing it would alter the country's demographic balance.

Recent Developments and Continuing Challenges

Recent developments have further complicated the pursuit of a two-state solution. The rise of right-wing leadership in Israel, exemplified by Benjamin Netanyahu's tenure, has seen a hardening of positions and an unwillingness to make concessions. The assassination of Yitzhak Rabin, a key proponent of the Oslo Accords, in 1995 by a Jewish extremist, marked a significant setback for the peace process. Additionally, the emergence of Hamas, an Islamist militant group opposing the Oslo Accords, has further derailed efforts toward peace.

International diplomatic efforts have continued, but none have succeeded in reviving the two-state solution. The ongoing construction of Jewish settlements, the political power of settlers, the contentious status of Jerusalem, and the right of return for refugees remain significant barriers. The recent violence, including the October 2023 attacks and Israel's subsequent military actions in Gaza, underscores the enduring volatility and complexity of the conflict.

Conclusion

The possibility of a future Palestinian state remains an open question, fraught with historical grievances, political complexities, and social tensions. While the two-state solution offers a framework for peace, significant structural and political obstacles hinder its realization. The international community continues to voice support for a Palestinian state, but achieving this goal requires addressing the fundamental issues of borders, settlements, Jerusalem, and refugees. The current status quo, characterized by occupation and conflict, is unsustainable. Lasting peace in the region will depend on the willingness of all parties to make meaningful concessions and engage in genuine dialogue.

Source - The Hindu