Context-

In a dramatic turn of events, Bangladesh, a country that has experienced significant economic growth and political stability under Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, is now facing an uncertain future. What began as student demonstrations against job quotas quickly escalated into widespread protests and violence, ultimately leading to the resignation of Sheikh Hasina, the country's longest-serving Prime Minister.

Background

The unrest reached a critical point on July 15, 2024, when clashes between Hasina's supporters and protestors turned violent, prompting the government to impose curfews, internet blockades, and even shoot-at-sight orders. By August 5, over 300 people had been killed, and the situation culminated in the army taking control of the country.

With an interim government soon to be established, the future of Bangladesh and by extension, South Asia now hangs in the balance. This transition is likely to have significant implications for India, which had enjoyed a close and cooperative relationship with Hasina's government.

Economic Growth and Political Stability

●    Economic Achievements Under Hasina : Sheikh Hasina's tenure as Prime Minister of Bangladesh was marked by impressive economic growth and development. Over the last decade, Bangladesh maintained an average GDP growth rate of 6.6%, while poverty levels decreased from 12% in 2008 to just over 5% in 2022. The country's GDP increased from $100 billion in 2009 to $460 billion in 2022, positioning Bangladesh to graduate from its Least Developed Country status by 2026.

●   Political Stability and Foreign Policy : Hasina's leadership also brought a period of political stability to Bangladesh, a country previously prone to military coups and political unrest. By successfully suppressing the 2009 mutiny of the Bangladesh Rifles, Hasina managed to subordinate the military to civilian authorities, reducing the likelihood of future coups.

On the foreign policy front, Hasina's "Friendship to all, malice to none" approach helped attract investments and infrastructure projects from a diverse range of global powers, including India, Russia, China, Japan, and Western countries. A key aspect of her foreign policy success was her ability to win India's trust by respecting its security concerns and fostering economic ties.

The Golden Era of India-Bangladesh Relations

●   Strengthening Economic and Strategic Ties : Under Hasina's leadership, India and Bangladesh experienced what many have called the "golden era" of their bilateral relations. Trade between the two countries grew from $2 billion in 2007 to $14 billion in 2022, with India offering Bangladesh over $8 billion in credit lines by 2023. Connectivity initiatives also took precedence, with the reopening of rail lines, the construction of a diesel supply pipeline, and the signing of agreements to facilitate transit and port access.

● India's Strategic Interests and Regional Connectivity : India's trust in Hasina's government led to a push for regional integration and connectivity, which served both economic and strategic purposes. For India, promoting connectivity through its own territory not only helped its neighbours boost their economies but also acted as a counterbalance to China's growing influence in the region. Bangladesh's stability and economic growth made it an attractive partner for South Asian countries like Nepal and Bhutan, which sought to tap into Bangladesh's market and resources.

In 2022, India offered free transit to Bangladeshi trucks headed for Nepal and Bhutan, and in June 2024, the two countries signed an MoU allowing Bangladesh Railways to reach these landlocked nations using Indian railway lines. Bangladesh also permitted Bhutan to build a special economic zone on its territory, which would play a crucial role in Bhutan's Gelephu Special Administrative Region project.

Emerging Challenges for India

●  The Revival of Anti-India Sentiments : With Hasina's resignation and the rise of opposition parties like the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), India now faces new challenges in its relationship with Bangladesh. Both parties have historically advocated for closer ties with Pakistan and China, often at the expense of India. They have also capitalized on nationalist and religious sentiments against India, accusing Delhi of supporting Hasina's regime. The recent "India Out" campaign and the criticism of railway connectivity agreements with India reflect the opposition's continued scepticism towards India's role in Bangladesh.

●    Security Concerns and Regional Instability : The opposition's resurgence has led to violence and unrest, with their supporters targeting Hindu minorities and Awami League members. The storming of the Narsingdi jail and the release of around 800 prisoners, some of whom are trained militants, further underscore the potential security risks for India. The Indian National Security Advisor's meeting with Hasina after she fled to India highlights Delhi's concerns about the ongoing developments and their potential spillover effects.

●   Mistrust and Anti-India Rhetoric : The mistrust towards India is not limited to the opposition. Many students and protestors who opposed Hasina have accused India of supporting her regime. This narrative is likely to grow, making it difficult for any future government in Bangladesh to foster strong ties with India. Activists have already begun alleging that India might deploy its troops to undo their "hard-won freedom," a claim that could further strain relations between the two countries.

The Uncertain Role of the Military

• Challenges of Military Rule : With the army now in control of Bangladesh, questions arise about its ability to maintain stability, especially given its history of involvement in the country's early years. The ongoing violence and unrest, coupled with public dissatisfaction with military rule, could lead to further political and economic instability, impacting Bangladesh's economy, investments, and regional connectivity efforts. These developments could have significant implications for India's interests in the region.
• Concerns Over the Interim Government : The army's intention to dissolve the current parliament and establish an interim government in consultation with political parties and stakeholders raises further concerns. The inclusion of student organisations and members of the JI, HI, and BNP in the latest consultations, while excluding the Awami League, does not bode well for India's interests. The release of BNP supremo Khaleda Zia, Hasina's arch-rival, within hours of the latter's resignation, adds to the uncertainty surrounding the future direction of Bangladesh's political landscape.

A Strategic Shock for India

●     The Loss of a Key Ally : Hasina's resignation is one of the biggest strategic shocks for India in recent years. Her government's policies fostered a strong bond with India, making Bangladesh a hub of regional connectivity and integration. With her ouster, all of these achievements are now at risk. While it may still be possible for Delhi to find a way to work with a new regime in Bangladesh, doing so will be challenging, as it will require building trust and respecting each other's red lines a difficult task given the history and politics of the two countries.

●     The Road Ahead for India : As Bangladesh navigates its political transition, India will need to carefully assess its options and strategies for maintaining its influence and protecting its interests in the region. This will likely involve a combination of diplomatic engagement, economic incentives, and security cooperation with whatever new government emerges in Dhaka. Until then, India and its neighbours may have to brace for a period of uncertainty and instability in their relations with Bangladesh.

Conclusion

The departure of Sheikh Hasina marks the end of an era in Bangladesh-India relations, one characterised by mutual trust, economic cooperation, and regional connectivity. As Bangladesh enters a new phase of political uncertainty, India faces the daunting task of navigating a complex and potentially hostile landscape. The outcome of this transition will have far-reaching implications not only for India but also for the broader South Asian region. Until stability is restored in Bangladesh, the prospect of positive developments in India-Bangladesh relations remains uncertain.

Source- ORF