Context-

The momentous ending of Sheikh Hasina's rule in Bangladesh presents both an opportunity and a risk. To understand this significant political change, it is essential to view Bangladesh's experience within the broader context of democratic institutionalisation. For India, it is crucial to avoid seeing Bangladesh through the lens of our own narcissism. This revolution is the culmination of the Bangladeshi people's ongoing struggle to shape their own destiny.

India's Interests in Bangladesh

India has vital interests in Bangladesh. It is crucial that Bangladesh does not become a staging ground for anti-India groups operating in the North-east. Any violence against Hindus in Bangladesh, even if an aberration, could profoundly impact domestic politics in India and, in turn, affect Bangladesh's political landscape. Thus far, both the army and the student movement in Bangladesh have indicated they will not let this happen.

Governmental and Civil Society Perspectives

At the governmental level, India's approach has been marked by a degree of narcissism. This has blinded us to a central fact of modern politics: authoritarian repression can only work up to a point; dissent, like water, will eventually find an outlet. India sided with Sheikh Hasina well beyond what legitimate concerns warranted, risking becoming a partisan actor in Bangladesh politics, supporting not just a particular party but authoritarianism itself.

At the level of civil society and the media, there has been a refusal to acknowledge the complexities of Bangladeshi society. The Indian right wing's portrayal of the events in Bangladesh as a foreign conspiracy or an Islamist plot alienates the Bangladeshi people, treating them as if they have no agency of their own. This perspective mirrors how the Right views domestic dissent in India. It is a mistake similar to the one Sheikh Hasina made by calling her own students razakars (traitors).

The Complexities of Bangladesh's Politics

●     Identity and Secularism

Bangladesh's politics have been marked by two significant tensions. First, the creation of Bangladesh as an independent nation did not fully resolve its identity as either a religious or a secular state with a dominant language. Successive rulers, notably Ziaur Rahman, compromised the potential for a secular future by incorporating more Islamic elements into the constitution and giving more space to Islamist groups, making them a significant feature of Bangladeshi politics.

Sheikh Hasina also accommodated these groups, partly in response to mass mobilisations against atheist bloggers. Ironically, she used the religious pretext to legitimise laws clamping down on freedom of expression, which could also be used against her secular opponents. As a result, Islamism remains a persistent strain in Bangladeshi politics.

●     Authoritarianism and Islamism

The Indian perspective that only a pro-India authoritarian regime can keep Islamism at bay is misguided. Islamism thrives either due to the patronage of autocrats who use it or because the secular opposition has been so suppressed that religious mobilisations become the only available form of discontent. As democratic spaces open up, Islamist groups may initially become more visible. However, in the long run, as seen in other modernising societies, democratic institutions can mitigate this visibility.

Democratic Prospects in Bangladesh

There are no guarantees in a democracy, but Bangladesh has some chance, albeit with conflict, of making it. Its civil society differs significantly from Pakistan's. Even in Pakistan, religious parties do not perform well in elections; their power often stems from state patronage and acting as substitutes for the state in various areas. In contrast, Bangladesh has a robustly institutionalised secular civil society that has been central to its development.

●     Institutionalising the Party System

The second tension in Bangladeshi politics is the institutionalisation of the party system. The first order of business for an interim government will be to ensure free and fair elections in which all parties participate. A boycott by the Awami League or low turnout rates could condemn the party system to slide from a democratic upsurge back to centralised authoritarianism. The problem has been that winning parties in Bangladesh often enjoy monopolies on power, targeting opponents and undermining free elections. Additionally, each party tends to become a small cabal controlled by an opaque inner circle, becoming increasingly unresponsive.

With the potential fading of Sheikh Hasina and possibly even Khaleda Zia, a genuine party system might emerge. Creating a party system more attuned to rotating and sharing power and more committed to core institutional values is crucial. Otherwise, the current tendencies of social movement upsurges followed by brief democracy and subsequent consolidation of an autocratic party-affiliated state will continue.

The Role of Student Movements

Student movements have played a powerful role in Bangladesh's political history. They were at the forefront of the language movement in 1952 and the independence movement in 1971. Bangladesh is unique in the degree to which students retain the aura of democratic legitimacy in challenging authoritarianism. In a system that becomes authoritarian by turns, students unsettle established claims to authority. The image of the student Abu Sayed standing with open arms and being shot within seconds revealed the character of the Bangladeshi state in this moment like no other image.

India has had its own student movements, notably during the Emergency and in regional movements like those in Assam. The last significant student-led movement was the agitation for Telangana, which did not turn violent because the state was responsive. There is no guarantee, but the fact that Bangladesh is experiencing a student-led movement offers hope for a society striving to carve out its future.

Conclusion

The recent experience of popular uprisings across the world is not always encouraging. Apart from other challenges, Bangladesh will face economic headwinds. However, no power, especially India, should short-circuit the complex process of modernisation that Bangladesh is undergoing for its own gains. If Bangladesh can internalise the message of its students—that religious nationalism is the surest road to authoritarianism—the region will have a fighting chance.

Source- The Indian Express