Context:

In the aftermath of Myanmar's military coup in February 2021, India's foreign policy towards its neighbor has faced scrutiny. Despite widespread condemnation of the military junta's brutal crackdown on dissent, India has maintained formal relations, citing strategic interests. However, there is a growing call for India to adopt a more values-driven approach that aligns with its democratic principles and humanitarian obligations. The country is crucial for India's aspirations to increase its influence in Southeast Asia, specifically among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, through its Act East Policy (AEP).

Myanmar After 2021 Military Coup

●     Myanmar's Strategic Significance

o   Since the 2021 military coup, Myanmar's pivotal location at the crossroads of South, Southeast, and East Asia has positioned it as a gateway for India to expand its land and maritime connectivity across Southeast Asia and beyond.

o   Beyond its strategic value, India views Myanmar as a promising market and a dependable economic partner, crucial for its growing economy. Under a bilateral trade agreement encompassing 62 commodities, including agricultural products, utensils, cosmetics, motorbikes, and cement, projections indicate a total merchandise trade of US $1.76 billion for 2022-2023.

●     Challenges Facing AEP Projects

o   Despite these opportunities, critical projects under India's Act East Policy (AEP) in Myanmar have encountered significant delays. Notably, the 68-mile highway linking Sittwe Port in Myanmar to Mizoram in India under the Kaladan Multi-Modal Project (KMMP) remains incomplete, with Sittwe Port nearing readiness on the Mizoram side.

o   Similarly, the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Project (IMTTP) is nearing completion on the Indian and Thai sides, yet Myanmar's progress remains unclear. Political instability, exacerbated by conflicts between Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and the military junta in regions like Chin, Sagaing, and Rakhine states, has hindered these infrastructure developments. Control of strategic areas like Paletwa township by groups such as the Arakan Army, with which India has not engaged, underscores the need for New Delhi to adapt to evolving circumstances to advance these critical projects.

●     Security and Counterinsurgency Efforts

o   India has collaborated with the Myanmar government to secure its North-Eastern Region (NER) against insurgent threats, coordinating efforts between the Indian Army and Myanmar's military. Implementing the AEP aims not only to enhance connectivity with ASEAN nations via Myanmar but also to alleviate armed conflicts in the NER, addressing underlying issues like unemployment and limited opportunities that fuel insurgency.

o   However, the military junta's failure to fulfill commitments to assist India in countering insurgency along the Indo-Myanmar border has implications for India's national security, evident in incidents like the November 2021 ambush on Assam Rifles' convoy.

●     Impact of Refugee Influx and Regional Stability

o   Escalating violence and aerial strikes by Myanmar's junta have intensified refugee influx into India's NER, particularly in states like Mizoram and Manipur, where over 60,000 Myanmar immigrants have sought refuge since the 2021 coup.

o   The influx of Chin Kuki refugees has further exacerbated violence in Manipur, disrupting vital Indo-Myanmar border trade routes like the Moreh-Tamu market. This instability has discouraged stakeholders from investing in the NER linked to the AEP, posing significant challenges to India's regional connectivity goals.

●     China's Growing Influence

o   China's expanding political and economic presence in Myanmar, exemplified by initiatives such as the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor and surveillance facilities on Myanmar's Coco Island in the Bay of Bengal, has raised concerns in India.

o   As Myanmar's largest trading partner and a principal source of foreign direct investments, China's multifaceted engagement contrasts with India's strategy, which primarily involves engagement with the military junta to limit Chinese influence. China's ability to broker temporary ceasefires between EAOs and the junta underscores its nuanced approach, potentially overshadowing India's influence if Myanmar undergoes a governmental transition.

Rebalancing India's Myanmar Policy

●     Upholding Democratic Values

o   India's historical approach to Myanmar has prioritized strategic interests over democratic values. However, the changing dynamics in Myanmar necessitate a recalibration. By leveraging its status as the largest federal democracy in the region, India can exert influence and support Myanmar's pro-democracy movement led by the National Unity Government (NUG) and civil society organizations.

●     Empowering Myanmar's Pro-Democracy Movement

o   India should actively support Myanmar's transition towards a federal democratic system. Drawing on its own federal governance model, India can provide capacity-building and knowledge exchange programs to empower Myanmar's political elites and civil society. This support aims to strengthen the opposition's efforts to replace the military-drafted constitution with a federal one, distinguishing India from China's influence in the region.

●     Halting Weapon Sales to the Myanmar Military

o   To align with its values and support for democracy, India must immediately cease all weapon sales to the Myanmar military. Reports indicate ongoing sales of military equipment by Indian manufacturers despite widespread human rights abuses. This step is crucial to prevent further violence against civilians and demonstrate India's commitment to human rights and stability in Myanmar.

●     Opening Humanitarian Corridors

o   India should establish cross-border humanitarian corridors to provide aid to civilians affected by conflict in Myanmar's Saging Region, Chin State, and northern Rakhine State. These areas have witnessed significant internal displacement and humanitarian crises due to ongoing military operations.

o   By reinstating the Free Movement Regime and collaborating with international organizations, India can facilitate the delivery of essential supplies like medicine, food, and shelter to affected populations.

●     Addressing Detention and Deportation Issues

o   India must halt the detention and deportation of asylum seekers from Myanmar, particularly in Manipur and other border states. Many asylums' seekers face persecution and danger in Myanmar, making deportation a violation of international law, including the principle of non-refoulement. India should treat these individuals as refugees deserving of protection and humanitarian assistance, in line with its constitutional and international obligations.

●     Strategic Considerations and Regional Dynamics

o   India's policy shift towards Myanmar should not only uphold democratic values and human rights but also consider strategic implications. By championing democracy and human security, India can enhance its regional leadership and counterbalance China's influence, which often prioritizes economic and strategic gains over governance and rights issues.

o   By adopting a progressive and values-driven approach, India can effectively navigate the complexities of Myanmar's political landscape while advancing its own national interests and regional influence.

Conclusion

India stands at a critical juncture in redefining its Myanmar policy. By prioritizing democracy and human security, India can uphold its values, support Myanmar's democratic aspirations, and safeguard regional stability. This approach not only distinguishes India as a responsible global actor but also reinforces its strategic interests in a stable and democratic Southeast Asia. Looking ahead, India should continue to engage diplomatically with Myanmar's pro-democracy forces, strengthen humanitarian assistance efforts, and advocate for international support for Myanmar's democratic transition. This proactive stance will not only benefit Myanmar's people but also contribute to a more stable and prosperous region where democratic principles and human rights prevail.

Source- The Hindu