A High-Order Hegemonic Contest In Asia : US vs China : Daily Current Affairs

Date: 03/09/2022

Relevance: GS-2: International Relations

Key Phrases: Cold War 2.0, Strategic Influence, Spheres of influence, Power hierarchy, Hegemony.

Background

Cold War 2.0 seems to be intensifying, and the two principal protagonists, the U.S. and China may come to a military head.
Unlike in the preceding version, in Cold War 2.0, the two opponents are technological and economic near peers, even though militarily America still dominate.
It does seem that while China’s reservoir of power is growing, the American reservoir is declining.
American strategic influence is no longer decisive. For instance: By 2035, while the Chinese economy will account for 24 per cent of global GDP, the American economy will account for a mere 14 per cent.
The PLA has grown 44-fold since 1995, to include a sharp digital makeover.

What makes China believe that it can now contest American primacy?

Beijing believes it has arrived and is now strong enough to contest American primacy, at least in its near abroad in the Western Pacific.
Mao Zedong gave China the revolution, Deng Xiaoping gave them wealth, and it is axiomatic now for Xi Jinping to restore greatness.
The Chinese also never fail to point out that if the Americans can have a Western Hemisphere of their own strategic making, why can’t there be an Eastern Hemisphere in the Chinese mould.
This argument makes them demand “legitimate territories” in the Chinese sphere of influence must be got back.
And also other nations in the Eastern Hemisphere must acknowledge the reality of the new power hierarchy and offer tributes to the new hegemon.
China holds that this unique moment in history must not be lost.
Hence, the repeated references to the phrase “great changes not seen in a century”, point to a time of great opportunity for the Chinese nation in view of unprecedented technological and geopolitical shifts.

How is America countering China’s growing assertion?

Americans have realised, that they were laggardly in waking up to the Chinese genie and that it is now a trifle late to put it back into the bottle.
Compromise is also difficult because both sides firmly believe in the superiority of their respective political brands and are unwilling to give in.
It has become ‘Western Freedom and Values' versus ‘Unique Chinese Civilisation' whose delivery in terms of poverty alleviation and other indices of development has been quite extraordinary.
Both sides also know that in the ultimate analysis, if you have the power your values rule; if you don’t, you submit.

What has been the reaction of the world community on Cold War 2.0?

Many nations in the region do not wish to choose between the US and China.
Others hold the argument that prudence lies in accepting the new reality of Chinese power.
A few nations, allies/partners of the US hold the view that the protection of the American military umbrella may no longer be available or dependable. For instance, NATO acknowledging China as a challenge.
These are early days, but a possible modus vivendi in the Sino-American contest may lie in a division of mutually exclusive spheres of influence at some point in the future.

What are the choices for India?

The Indian strategic dilemma is acute.
The Chinese view of our autonomy is not universally respectful.
A section there thinks of India as a nation that is watching the fun from atop a hill, even as two fight.
The great power in waiting that India is, it cannot partake in China’s tributary state view of the world.
Also, in a prospective fight between the two tigers, America is unlikely to win.
The choices before India, therefore, are not only limited but pretty stark.
If China is indeed tottering at the seams, we should use the geo-strategic reprieve available to close in on the power gap.
If it is not, we need to brace up to the challenge with far greater immediacy.
The surest way will be to strengthen our strategic-military play by an order of magnitude.
Enhance deterrence in the traditional and emerging domains.
Transit rapidly from a military focussed on India’s defence to one that is also sophisticated enough to sustain its rise.
Till that happens India should develop ways and means to live with Chinese power and make strategic adjustments accordingly.
At the very least, we should not sleepwalk into conflict and war.

What is Cold war?

It is a state of conflict between two nations that does not involve direct military action.
The conflict is primarily pursued through economic and political actions, including propaganda, espionage and proxy wars, where countries at war rely on others to fight their battles.
The term cold war was rarely used before 1945, and some credit 14th century Spaniard Don Juan Manuel for first using it when referencing the conflict between Christianity and Islam.

Cold War 2.0: Parallels with the Past

It shares similarities with the original Cold War (1945-1991) in many aspects.
First, during the Cold War, the threat of an active military conflict between the two was largely defused due to the nuclear deterrence. Hence, this allowed both the United States and USSR to collaborate on major global challenges, like resolving the 1956 Suez Canal Crisis. Although nuclear deterrence is still viable today, the context of the U.S.-China rivalry is far more beholden to economic interdependence—trade relations amounted to $660 billion in 2018—whereas U.S. trade with the USSR remained low throughout the Cold War.
Secondly, the pivot of Cold War rivalry between the United States and USSR was centered across Europe in its western and eastern parts, respectively. In Cold War 2.0, the epicenter of U.S.-China rivalry is Asia. The United States has formed new networks of aligned states to “encircle” China—including the Quad (consisting of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia) and AUKUS (the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia)—and routinely deploys the U.S. Navy into contested sea lanes to deter Chinese military adventurism.
Thirdly, the Cold War was largely dominated by proxy warfare around the globe. Instead of actively engaging in direct military conflict, the United States and USSR financed and armed the oppositional groups on foreign territories—culminating in three major proxy conflicts: the Korean War (1950-1953), Vietnam War (1955-1975), and Afghanistan War (1979-1990). Although no such proxy conflict is present between the United States and China to date, both countries are supporting rival factions abroad, either militarily or diplomatically.

Source: Indian express

Mains Question:

Q. Explain Cold War 2.0. How can India deal with the growing Sino-American contest?