Context-

The 2024 Taiwanese presidential election has marked a historic moment with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate, Lai Ching-te (William Lai), securing a victory, breaking the trend of no party securing a third consecutive term in office. This victory is particularly noteworthy due to the emergence of Taiwan's People's Party, turning the elections into a three-way contest. The geopolitical significance of Taiwan is underscored by China's persistent claim of the island as a break-away province, heightened tensions with the United States, and the increasing assertiveness of President Xi Jinping. Additionally, the majority of Taiwanese people identifying themselves as distinct from being Chinese adds another layer to the complex political landscape.

China's Growing Assertiveness:

China's assertiveness towards Taiwan has escalated in recent times, raising concerns about the potential for a wider regional conflict. The release of a white paper in August 2022, titled 'The Taiwan Question and China’s Reunification in the New Era,' laid blame on the DPP's pursuit of independence for escalating the crisis, hinting at the possibility of using force to unify the island.

Taiwan, in response, has strengthened its military capabilities, lengthening the duration of military service and acquiring defensive armaments from the United States. Tensions escalated further with the visit of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in August 2022, leading to military exercises by China near the island. Missile landings in Japan's exclusive economic zone during these exercises raised the specter of a wider regional conflict, impacting stability in the Indo-Pacific.

Democratic Values and Technological Prowess:

Taiwan's democratic values and technological prowess have elevated its importance in the Indo-Pacific, making it a crucial partner for the United States. President-elect Lai has been vocal in defending Taiwan's sovereignty, and the DPP's charter pledges to draft a new constitution and declare a "Republic of Taiwan." This commitment aligns with the island's strategic position as a democratic stronghold in the face of China's authoritarian rise.

China's Reaction to the Election:

China's reaction to Lai's victory has been marked by dissatisfaction, framing the election as a choice between peace and prosperity versus confrontation and economic challenges. Despite the DPP's win, China refuses to acknowledge the party's representation of mainstream opinion in Taiwan. Beijing has announced its intention to engage with various groups on the island to pursue unification, illustrating its determination to influence Taiwan's political trajectory.

Economic Coercion and Potential Challenges for President Lai:

In the lead-up to the election, China employed economic coercion tactics, imposing tariffs on key petrochemical items covered under the Economic Co-operation Framework Agreement. The possibility of China revisiting or scrapping this trade deal poses a significant economic threat to Taiwan, given that China is its largest export market. Furthermore, Beijing's interference in Taiwan's political process, including mysterious balloons and smear videos, indicates a potential strategy to undermine President Lai's administration.

India's Potential Role in the Evolving Scenario:

●     People-to-People Exchange: As President Lai looks to reduce Taiwan's economic reliance on China, this presents an opportune moment for India to strengthen bilateral ties. Building upon the existing framework, India could initiate people-to-people exchanges, offering more scholarships to Taiwanese youth interested in subjects such as yoga and Ayurveda. The educational potential of Taiwanese universities could be explored as destinations for Indian students, fostering greater collaboration.

●     Promoting a Buddhist Tourism Circuit: Drawing on historical and cultural ties, India and Taiwan could collaborate on promoting a Buddhist tourism circuit. Sites like the Xuanzang temple in Taiwan and pilgrimage destinations in India, such as Bodh Gaya, could be linked to attract tourists interested in exploring Buddhist heritage. This initiative could strengthen cultural ties and contribute to tourism development in both regions.

●     Economic Engagement and Technological Collaboration: In the economic sphere, India stands to benefit from increased engagement with Taiwan, particularly as Taiwan looks to export critical components rather than finished products. This strategic collaboration could prove advantageous for India's medium- and small-scale industries sector. Additionally, technological collaboration with Taiwan's Hsinchu Science Park, the birthplace of the island's semiconductor industry, could enhance India's technological capabilities.

India's Evolving Approach Towards Taiwan:

Historically, India has kept Taiwan at arm's length to avoid upsetting China, which has reciprocated by targeting Indian interests. However, the evolving geopolitical landscape calls for a reevaluation of India's approach. Shedding the "hesitations of history," India could pursue a more assertive stance and forge a bolder relationship with Taiwan, aligning with its Act East Policy.

Conclusion:

The 2024 Taiwanese presidential election and the subsequent victory of President-elect Lai Ching-te have set the stage for a dynamic period in the region's geopolitics. With China's increased assertiveness and Taiwan's strategic importance, the evolving scenario presents opportunities and challenges. As President Lai navigates the complex landscape, India has the chance to deepen its ties with Taiwan, leveraging cultural, educational, and economic avenues. This proactive approach could not only strengthen bilateral relations but also contribute to regional stability in the Indo-Pacific. As the international community observes the developments in East Asia, the role of key players like the United States, China, and India will play a crucial role in shaping the future of Taiwan and its global alliances.

Source- ORF